The waiting is finally over. The daily release of some sort of "list" about college football is done. The preseason All-American teams have been named. The predictions have been made. All of the talk is done.
It is time to get it on.
Welcome back to the Cobb Blog.
Week One has some amazing matchups. Gone are the days of paying to play four punching bags before entering conference play. The Big Five conferences know that strength of schedule means something. If you want to be in the talk for the College Football Playoff, you have to play quality non-conference opponents.
Locally, expectations at Clemson have never been higher. A dynamic offense, led by all-everything quarterback DeShaun Watson, should be the best in the country. The defense is going to need some time, but there is plenty of talent on the depth chart.
How good is Watson? There has been some chatter during the preseason that he is going to put it in cruise control to keep from getting hurt before the 2017 NFL Draft. Watson says that isn't going to happen. And I don't think that's Watson's style. He is going to give whatever he's got. As long as he is on the field, Clemson can beat anybody.
South Carolina is developing under first-year head coach Will Muschamp, who is getting a second chance to be a head coach in the SEC. Muschamp and his staff already have addressed one of the big issues in Columbia -- recruiting. But it is going to take some time to turn around the entire program that has declined the past two seasons.
This ranks as one of the most interesting opening weeks ever with five interesting neutral site games. Here are this week's selections. All picks are against the betting line. And as always, the picks are for entertainment purposes only:
Thursday Games
-- South Carolina at Vanderbilt -3.5. The Gamecocks have become a staple on the opening Thursday night of the season. This year, they take their act on the road to Nashville to face a Vandy team that has high expectations. But Vandy always has high expectations until the season starts. Both teams are a mystery, but I think the Muschamp era will get off to a good start. Pick -- South Carolina
-- Appalachian State at Tennessee -20.0. Many pundits say Tennessee is finally back. The Vols have been the most popular selection with take the SEC East title. The Mountaineers cannot be overlooked, but I don't think the Vols will have a problem. Pick -- Tennessee
Saturday Games
-- Georgia Tech vs. Boston College +3 at Dublin, Ireland. It took a lot of preparation to get both of these teams to Dublin -- passports for players and staff, counting equipment and compiling lists for security checks, shipping the equipment, etc. Last year was a total flop for both of these teams. Tech struggled to find offensive consistency, while BC just struggled for offense. The Eagles can play defense, so Tech's option attack better take care of the ball. The points are tempting, but I think the Yellow Jackets will find some way to cover the spread. Pick -- Georgia Tech
-- Georgia vs. North Carolina +3.5 at Atlanta. This one has interesting game written all over it. I am going to put Georgia on Upset Alert. Georgia fans finally managed to get rid of Mark Richt and get the man they have wanted for a long time -- former Bulldog player and former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. Georgia's offense got a boost when it was announced running back Nick Chubb, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Tennessee game last season, is ready to go for the opener. North Carolina will have a new starting quarterback who is not brand new -- Mitch Trubisky, who played in nine games last season. The Heels also have a solid running back -- Elijah Hood. The Heels can score and their defensive unit should take another step forward this season. Pick -- North Carolina
-- Clemson at Auburn -7.5. Another Upset Alert. Auburn struggled last season and has had several scrapes with the law during the off season. There are murmurs on the Plains that head coach Gus Malzahn is in trouble. Clemson has gone from hunter to hunted. Clemson's offensive unit should be high flying and dynamic with Watson at the controls. The Clemson defensive unit is in the same situation it was last season -- reloading with talented but untested players. Can former Clemson defensive coordinator Kevin Steele, who was fired by Dabo Swinney after the Tigers gave up 70 to West Virginia, inspire his Auburn defense to rise up against Clemson? This looks like a tussle for three quarters. There is a lot working in Auburn's favor, but some how, some way, I think Clemson will find a way to cover. Pick -- Clemson
-- Alabama vs. Southern Cal +9 at Arlington, Texas. The Crimson Tide has won four of the last seven national championships. Southern Cal has been through some trials and tribulations in recent years, but the Trojans are still considered one of the Blue Bloods of college football. But on Saturday night at Jerry World, I think the stage will be too big for the Trojans and the Tide will roll. Pick -- Alabama
-- Oklahoma at Houston -11. "Big Game" Bob Stoops is stepping out in the opener with a dangerous trip to Houston. Houston head coach Tom Herman has built a power high-scoring offense since coming to southeast Texas from Ohio State. The Cougars showed they are a national factor at the end of last season by beating Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Oklahoma has most of its key players back from last year's team that reached the College Football Playoff. I think the Sooners will win, but I don't think they will cover. Take the points. Pick -- Houston
-- UCLA at Texas A&M -3. No school has had more quarterbacks transfer out of the program in the last two years than Texas A&M. Aggie fans hope former Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight can stabilize the position. People keep waiting for Jim Mora, Jr., to return to the NFL, but for the moment, he is still in Westwood. The Bruins have enough defense to hang with the Aggies. Pick -- UCLA
-- LSU vs. Wisconsin -10 at Green Bay, Wisconsin. This one will be played on the not-so-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Saturday's forecast is 77 degrees and high humidity. LSU stud running back Leonard Fournette has been slowed by an ankle problem in the preseason. LSU head coach Les Miles is planning on reducing Fournette's workload in hopes of keeping him fresher later in the season. Wisconsin is all about a big offensive line and physical backs. Ten is a lot of points. I am going to take the points. Pick -- Wisconsin
Sunday
-- Notre Dame at Texas -2.5. The Irish humiliated the Longhorns last season in South Bend. The only thing Texas managed to do last year was upset Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly got a super dose of heart burn during the preseason when six Irish players decided to get themselves arrested. The Irish were a couple of plays away from being in the College Football Playoff last season. I just don't believe in Texas. Pick -- Notre Dame
Monday
-- Ole Miss vs. Florida State -5 at Orlando, Fla. Clemson reject Chad Kelly has become one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. FSU's Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the country, but the Seminoles have an issue at quarterback. After Sean Maguire was sidelined with a foot injury in the preseason, freshman dual threat Deondre Francois was named the starting quarterback. I think the difference in this one is defense. Florida State is really stout, and Kelly has a history of making bad decisions. Pick -- Florida State
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Let's Pick The Big Six
Well, a lousy first weekend of December has left me with two wheels hanging over the cliff. A "fine" effort of 2-7 drops the overall record for 2015 at 75-75. That's correct. A flat .500 record for the season against the spread. Exactly how it should be. As I've heard it said many times, that's why they build those great big hotels in the desert.
A couple of weeks ago, I decided to not wade through the endless schedule of worthless bowl games and just cut to the chase. The New Year's Six. The only six games worth caring about. And I have to admit it. This is a pretty strong slate of six. On paper, all of these games look to be watchable.
So, let's take a shot at it. It is time to sack up and deliver in the clutch. As always, the picks are against the spread.
Peach Bowl -- Florida State -7.0 vs. Houston. The word out of Tallahassee is lack of interest. The Seminoles had trouble selling tickets for their second trip of the season to Atlanta. The first one didn't work out too well. Georgia Tech returned a blocked field goal on the last play of the game to hand FSU its first loss of the season. Houston, the American Athletic Conference champion, can score. But can the Cougars deal with FSU running back Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for 1,658 yards and 18 touchdowns? Bigger question -- Does FSU even want to be at the Peach Bowl? FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher says the Peach Bowl is a great consolation prize. Doesn't sound like a glowing endorsement. But I think Cook will be the difference and will rescue the Seminoles. Somebody needs to make sure Osceola doesn't bury is flaming spear in the Georgia Dome turf. That would set off the smoke alarms. Take Florida State.
Orange Bowl -- Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Clemson. Since this game was announced, Oklahoma has been the favorite and the line has not moved much, if at all. The Sooners have been cocky the week leading up to the game. They have showed little respect to the team that wore them out 40-6 last December in Orlando. It was obvious Oklahoma did not want to be in Orlando last year. The Sooners were out of it from the start. There is no doubt Oklahoma has most of the motivation on its side because of the whipping it took last season. The Sooners have even tried to make a big deal out of Clemson putting up a tombstone -- something the Tigers do for every victory away from home against a ranked team. Clemson has the No. 1 ranking and the lack-of-respect card. The more the Tigers win, the less respect they get from the national media. It seems everyone is waiting on the Tigers to lose. But it hasn't happened yet. Both teams have quarterbacks who did not play in last year's meeting -- Deshaun Watson for Clemson and Baker Mayfield for Oklahoma. Watson has made the plays all season. Mayfield is the type of quarterback that gives the Tigers trouble, one who runs around and extends plays. I believe the Clemson defense is refocused and ready to go and will play better than it did in the final month of the season. Give me the points. Take Clemson.
Cotton Bowl -- Alabama -10.0 vs. Michigan State. This line says one thing to me. Michigan State is getting completely dissed. The bookies apparently are buying into the Alabama hype. Alabama has one big card to play -- Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. This game will be played in a phone booth. These two teams will beat on each other for three-plus hours. It has been described by some as Caveman Football -- run good, pass bad. I give the edge to Alabama because of Henry, its defense, and its special teams. But I am going to take Sparty because I believe 10 points is too much. Pick Michigan State.
Sugar Bowl -- Ole Miss -7.0 vs. Oklahoma State. Both of these teams can score, but can they stop anybody? The excitement factor is a wash because both teams are happy to be in New Orleans. The Rebels are missing some key parts of their defense, so I'm going to ride with the Pokes and the points. Pistols firing. Pick Oklahoma State.
Fiesta Bowl -- Ohio State -6.5 vs. Notre Dame. I like this matchup. With a little more luck, the Irish could have been in the Top Four. Ohio State, the defending national champions, slopped through the season and finally got nipped at home by Michigan State. I think Notre Dame will be highly motivated for this game. Wake up the echoes. Pick Notre Dame.
Rose Bowl -- Stanford -6.0 vs. Iowa. Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey probably deserved more chatter in the Heisman Trophy race. He truly has done it all for the Cardinal -- 1,847 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, 41 receptions for 540 yards and four touchdowns, 28.9 yards per kickoff return and one touchdown, and two touchdown passes. Iowa is a nice team and has had a nice season, but I don't think the Hawkeyes are ready to deal with Stanford. Pick Stanford.
Last Week -- 2-7
Season -- 75-75
A couple of weeks ago, I decided to not wade through the endless schedule of worthless bowl games and just cut to the chase. The New Year's Six. The only six games worth caring about. And I have to admit it. This is a pretty strong slate of six. On paper, all of these games look to be watchable.
So, let's take a shot at it. It is time to sack up and deliver in the clutch. As always, the picks are against the spread.
Peach Bowl -- Florida State -7.0 vs. Houston. The word out of Tallahassee is lack of interest. The Seminoles had trouble selling tickets for their second trip of the season to Atlanta. The first one didn't work out too well. Georgia Tech returned a blocked field goal on the last play of the game to hand FSU its first loss of the season. Houston, the American Athletic Conference champion, can score. But can the Cougars deal with FSU running back Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for 1,658 yards and 18 touchdowns? Bigger question -- Does FSU even want to be at the Peach Bowl? FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher says the Peach Bowl is a great consolation prize. Doesn't sound like a glowing endorsement. But I think Cook will be the difference and will rescue the Seminoles. Somebody needs to make sure Osceola doesn't bury is flaming spear in the Georgia Dome turf. That would set off the smoke alarms. Take Florida State.
Orange Bowl -- Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Clemson. Since this game was announced, Oklahoma has been the favorite and the line has not moved much, if at all. The Sooners have been cocky the week leading up to the game. They have showed little respect to the team that wore them out 40-6 last December in Orlando. It was obvious Oklahoma did not want to be in Orlando last year. The Sooners were out of it from the start. There is no doubt Oklahoma has most of the motivation on its side because of the whipping it took last season. The Sooners have even tried to make a big deal out of Clemson putting up a tombstone -- something the Tigers do for every victory away from home against a ranked team. Clemson has the No. 1 ranking and the lack-of-respect card. The more the Tigers win, the less respect they get from the national media. It seems everyone is waiting on the Tigers to lose. But it hasn't happened yet. Both teams have quarterbacks who did not play in last year's meeting -- Deshaun Watson for Clemson and Baker Mayfield for Oklahoma. Watson has made the plays all season. Mayfield is the type of quarterback that gives the Tigers trouble, one who runs around and extends plays. I believe the Clemson defense is refocused and ready to go and will play better than it did in the final month of the season. Give me the points. Take Clemson.
Cotton Bowl -- Alabama -10.0 vs. Michigan State. This line says one thing to me. Michigan State is getting completely dissed. The bookies apparently are buying into the Alabama hype. Alabama has one big card to play -- Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. This game will be played in a phone booth. These two teams will beat on each other for three-plus hours. It has been described by some as Caveman Football -- run good, pass bad. I give the edge to Alabama because of Henry, its defense, and its special teams. But I am going to take Sparty because I believe 10 points is too much. Pick Michigan State.
Sugar Bowl -- Ole Miss -7.0 vs. Oklahoma State. Both of these teams can score, but can they stop anybody? The excitement factor is a wash because both teams are happy to be in New Orleans. The Rebels are missing some key parts of their defense, so I'm going to ride with the Pokes and the points. Pistols firing. Pick Oklahoma State.
Fiesta Bowl -- Ohio State -6.5 vs. Notre Dame. I like this matchup. With a little more luck, the Irish could have been in the Top Four. Ohio State, the defending national champions, slopped through the season and finally got nipped at home by Michigan State. I think Notre Dame will be highly motivated for this game. Wake up the echoes. Pick Notre Dame.
Rose Bowl -- Stanford -6.0 vs. Iowa. Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey probably deserved more chatter in the Heisman Trophy race. He truly has done it all for the Cardinal -- 1,847 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, 41 receptions for 540 yards and four touchdowns, 28.9 yards per kickoff return and one touchdown, and two touchdown passes. Iowa is a nice team and has had a nice season, but I don't think the Hawkeyes are ready to deal with Stanford. Pick Stanford.
Last Week -- 2-7
Season -- 75-75
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Tigers vs. Heels Highlights Final Week
Another winning week last week (9-7) but it could have been much, much better. The biggest misses were Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Mississippi State. All three suffered shocking blowouts to their archrivals.
This is the final week of picks. The biggest game of the week is in Charlotte, N.C., where No. 1 Clemson collides with streaking North Carolina. Most of the country is hoping the Tigers lose to create chaos in the College Football Playoff poll.
The remainder of the slate is composed of conference championship games and a few meaningless conference games. As always, all selections are against the spread.
I'll be back in a couple of weeks to select the post-Christmas bowl games and playoffs.
Merry Christmas to everyone.
North Carolina vs. Clemson -4.5 -- Well, it all comes down to this. No. 1 Clemson, which has been wobbling in recent weeks, against the hated Tar Heels. This is Clemson's 10th straight game (its bye week was in late September), and the Tigers are starting to show some wear and tear. Lack of depth on defense is becoming a factor. The Tar Heels can score a lot of points and their defense is more salty than it was last season. North Carolina is still questionable against the run, and the Tar Heels have yet to be under the blazing national spotlight this season. I think those two factors are major pluses for the Tigers. If North Carolina wins, the ACC will probably get left out of the playoffs. If Clemson wins, the Tigers will get a chance to get their feet under them before starting preparations for the semifinal on Dec. 31. I think the national media pulling for North Carolina is going to have a positive effect on the Tigers. Some people still don't believe in the Tigers. I think the Tigers will win some more converts Saturday night. And John Swofford will be shedding tears. Pick Clemson.
Southern Miss at Western Kentucky -7.5 -- Southern Miss has been one of the biggest surprises in college football with a wonderful turnaround season. I like the points in this matchup. Pick Southern Miss.
Temple at Houston -5.5 -- Houston will unleash its high-powered offense on the Owls. Pick Houston.
Texas at Baylor -20.5 -- Meaningless Big 12 game. Bears roll. Charlie Strong's seat gets warmer. Pick Baylor.
Florida vs. Alabama -18.0 -- Do we even have to play this game? Can't we call Gainesville and tell Florida to stay home? SEC haters are pulling for the ultimate upset. But the Gators have no shot. The Gators cannot score. The Tide rolls into the playoffs and possibly into the No. 1 spot by crushing the Gators. Pick Alabama.
West Virginia -5.5 at Kansas State -- Another meaningless Big 12 game. Kansas State needs to win to qualify for a bowl game. I don't think the Wildcats are going to make it. Pick West Virginia.
Air Force at San Diego State -6.0 -- I always liked the nickname Aztecs. Pick San Diego State.
Stanford -4.5 vs. Southern Cal. Interesting game. Stanford has been whining/campaigning for a spot in the playoffs if it beats Southern Cal. Southern Cal has played well for interim-now-new-head-coach Clay Helton. This one is being played in Santa Clara, which is closer to Stanford's campus. But I don't think that is going to matter. Fight On. Pick Southern Cal.
Michigan State -3.5 vs. Iowa -- I think this spread is too low. Michigan State rolls, ends Iowa's unbeaten season, and earns a spot in the playoffs. Pick Sparty.
Georgia State at Georgia Southern -21.0 -- I needed a 10th game, so I picked this one. Eagles in a blowout. Pick Georgia Southern.
Last Week -- 9-7
For The Season -- 73-68
This is the final week of picks. The biggest game of the week is in Charlotte, N.C., where No. 1 Clemson collides with streaking North Carolina. Most of the country is hoping the Tigers lose to create chaos in the College Football Playoff poll.
The remainder of the slate is composed of conference championship games and a few meaningless conference games. As always, all selections are against the spread.
I'll be back in a couple of weeks to select the post-Christmas bowl games and playoffs.
Merry Christmas to everyone.
North Carolina vs. Clemson -4.5 -- Well, it all comes down to this. No. 1 Clemson, which has been wobbling in recent weeks, against the hated Tar Heels. This is Clemson's 10th straight game (its bye week was in late September), and the Tigers are starting to show some wear and tear. Lack of depth on defense is becoming a factor. The Tar Heels can score a lot of points and their defense is more salty than it was last season. North Carolina is still questionable against the run, and the Tar Heels have yet to be under the blazing national spotlight this season. I think those two factors are major pluses for the Tigers. If North Carolina wins, the ACC will probably get left out of the playoffs. If Clemson wins, the Tigers will get a chance to get their feet under them before starting preparations for the semifinal on Dec. 31. I think the national media pulling for North Carolina is going to have a positive effect on the Tigers. Some people still don't believe in the Tigers. I think the Tigers will win some more converts Saturday night. And John Swofford will be shedding tears. Pick Clemson.
Southern Miss at Western Kentucky -7.5 -- Southern Miss has been one of the biggest surprises in college football with a wonderful turnaround season. I like the points in this matchup. Pick Southern Miss.
Temple at Houston -5.5 -- Houston will unleash its high-powered offense on the Owls. Pick Houston.
Texas at Baylor -20.5 -- Meaningless Big 12 game. Bears roll. Charlie Strong's seat gets warmer. Pick Baylor.
Florida vs. Alabama -18.0 -- Do we even have to play this game? Can't we call Gainesville and tell Florida to stay home? SEC haters are pulling for the ultimate upset. But the Gators have no shot. The Gators cannot score. The Tide rolls into the playoffs and possibly into the No. 1 spot by crushing the Gators. Pick Alabama.
West Virginia -5.5 at Kansas State -- Another meaningless Big 12 game. Kansas State needs to win to qualify for a bowl game. I don't think the Wildcats are going to make it. Pick West Virginia.
Air Force at San Diego State -6.0 -- I always liked the nickname Aztecs. Pick San Diego State.
Stanford -4.5 vs. Southern Cal. Interesting game. Stanford has been whining/campaigning for a spot in the playoffs if it beats Southern Cal. Southern Cal has played well for interim-now-new-head-coach Clay Helton. This one is being played in Santa Clara, which is closer to Stanford's campus. But I don't think that is going to matter. Fight On. Pick Southern Cal.
Michigan State -3.5 vs. Iowa -- I think this spread is too low. Michigan State rolls, ends Iowa's unbeaten season, and earns a spot in the playoffs. Pick Sparty.
Georgia State at Georgia Southern -21.0 -- I needed a 10th game, so I picked this one. Eagles in a blowout. Pick Georgia Southern.
Last Week -- 9-7
For The Season -- 73-68
Friday, November 27, 2015
It's Rivalry Week
Fresh off losing a few dollars during a quick trip to Las Vegas, it is time to make selections for Rivalry Week.
I will brag on myself a little bit. I hit 3 of 4 college basketball selections at the MGM Sports Book and I am holding a Clemson -17.5 ticket for Saturday's big game in Columbia.
Last week's blog record was a respectable 7-3. If you played just the last seven selections, you went 7-0. You're welcome.
The overall record now stands at 64 up and 61 down.
This is the final Saturday with a full slate of games, so there are plenty of rivalries. Don't throw anything out the window this week except all of the cliches.
With a slight touch of jet lag and turkey hangover, here are this week's fearless selections:
I will brag on myself a little bit. I hit 3 of 4 college basketball selections at the MGM Sports Book and I am holding a Clemson -17.5 ticket for Saturday's big game in Columbia.
Last week's blog record was a respectable 7-3. If you played just the last seven selections, you went 7-0. You're welcome.
The overall record now stands at 64 up and 61 down.
This is the final Saturday with a full slate of games, so there are plenty of rivalries. Don't throw anything out the window this week except all of the cliches.
With a slight touch of jet lag and turkey hangover, here are this week's fearless selections:
-- Clemson -17 at South Carolina. The Gamecocks hit rock bottom last Saturday when they managed to lose to The Citadel. This is the ultimate baited trap. On paper, it looks like a rout of massive proportions. South Carolina can't score. Clemson can score. South Carolina can't stop anybody. When motivated, Clemson has one of the best defenses in the country. I expect the Gamecocks to try the zone read and run the quarterback a lot (In a surprise move, Pharoh Cooper perhaps?) South Carolina will hang for a while and might even get the lead, but in the end, I think Clemson just has too much. Pick Clemson.
-- Georgia -4 at Georgia Tech. Georgia is bad and is 8-3. Tech is awful and is 3-8. If the Jackets can pull off the upset, this might be the final time we see Mark Richt on the Georgia sideline. The two offenses have been anemic. I think the difference in this one is Georgia's D. Pick Georgia.
-- Oklahoma -7 at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys lost their perfect season last week. Oklahoma is one of the hottest teams in the country. In the century-long history of this series, Oklahoma State has beaten Oklahoma just 17 times. The winner of this game will still be in the playoff picture. Can the Pokes make it two in a row over the Sooners? I think so. Pick Oklahoma State.
-- Louisville -4.5 at Kentucky. Louisville brings Kentucky's season to a merciful end. Pick Louisville.
-- Ohio State at Michigan Pick'em. Ohio State finally played somebody last week and lost. The Buckeyes get another top notch opponent Saturday when they journey to the Big House. And they will lose again. Pick Michigan.
-- Indiana -6.5 at Purdue. Indiana wins its fourth straight Oaken Bucket. Pick Indiana.
-- Duke -4 at Wake Forest. Yuck. Miami's miracle/illegal play destroyed Duke's season. Wake can play a little defense but has no offense. I believe Duke is going to wake up and slap the Deacons. Pick Duke.
-- Alabama -14.5 at Auburn. Alabama has been smashing everybody. Auburn is this only thing that stands between Alabama and a trip to Atlanta to face Florida for the SEC title. The Tide steamroller rolls on. Pick Alabama.
-- Vanderbilt at Tennessee -17.5. The Volunteers will have a relaxed Saturday. Pick Tennessee.
-- Ole Miss -1 at Mississippi State. State will scramble Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Pick Mississippi State.
-- Florida State -2.5 at Florida. Florida is the worst one-loss team in the country. The Gators will get loss No. 2 on Saturday. Pick Florida State.
-- Texas A&M at LSU -5.5. LSU's painful slide ends but will it matter for Les Miles? Pick LSU.
-- North Carolina -5.5 at N.C. State. Will North Carolina be looking ahead to the ACC Championship match up against Clemson? I think so. The Wolfpack pulls off a treasured upset. Pick N.C. State.
-- Virginia Tech -3.0 at Virginia. This is probably Mike London's last game in Charlottesville. Frank Beamer needs a victory to get to a bowl. Virginia rises up and pulls off the upset. Pick Virginia.
-- Notre Dame at Stanford -3.5. Notre Dame committed five turnovers in last week's victory over Stanford. The Irish go to Palo Alto needing a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. It's not going to happen. Pick Stanford.
-- UCLA at Southern Cal -3.0. Southern Cal got smashed last week at Oregon. I am expecting a strong Trojan rebound effort. Pick Southern Cal.
Last Week -- 7-3
For The Season -- 64-61
Last Week -- 7-3
For The Season -- 64-61
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Season Record Drops Below .500
Last week's record of 4-6 pushed the season record below .500.
One of my correct picks was the Clemson-Syracuse game. The Tigers, a 28-point favorite, got surprised by Syracuse's triple option but managed to escape with a 10-point victory. The dream is still alive.
It is crunch time with just two weeks remaining in the regular season.
The pressure is on. Let's see if we can handle it and put together a late-season run and reach something that looks like respectability.
As always, the picks are against the spread.
-- Georgia Tech at Miami Pick'em. I am tired of picking Georgia Tech and losing. So I am picking Miami. Take the Hurricanes.
-- Wake Forest at Clemson -29. Wake has a decent defense. Twenty-nine is a lot of points. Clemson failed to cover a huge spread last week. Saturday is Clemson's final home game -- Senior Day, Purple Out, Military Appreciation Day. This game is always an extremely emotional day at Clemson. It has been a magical season so far for the Tigers. I believe home field and the refocusing of the defense this week will lead to a cover for the Tigers this week. Pick Clemson.
-- Georgia Southern at Georgia -14.5. Georgia is making its typical late-season run to get to nine or 10 wins. Rumors continue to swirl that Mark Richt is done after this season. Richt is doing all he can to hang on. (Jimbo Fisher to Georgia?) The Eagles could make it interesting for a while, but I think the Bulldogs with cover. Pick Georgia.
-- Baylor at Oklahoma State Pick'em. As some of you know, I have a lot of family members who graduated from Oklahoma State. For several weeks, I have been dreaming of an all-orange national championship game in Scottsdale, Ariz. on Jan. 11. The Pokes need just two more wins and I think they're in the playoff. First hurdle is Baylor, which got beaten up by Oklahoma last week. I like the unbeaten Pokes at home. Pick Oklahoma State.
-- Memphis -1.5 at Temple. The Owls with a mild upset at home. Pick Temple.
-- North Carolina -6.5 at Virginia Tech. Saturday will be Frank Beamer's final game at Lane Stadium. North Carolina can clinch the Coastal Division title with a victory over Tech and a Pittsburgh loss. The Tar Heels have been steamrolling everything in their path. Can Virginia Tech slow the game down and control the Heels? It will be an emotional day in Blacksburg. How far will that emotion carry the Hokies? Pick Virginia Tech.
-- Michigan State at Ohio State -13.0. This spread looks too high. I think it is too high. Take Michigan State.
-- Duke at Virginia -2.5. While Mike London waits for the axe to fall, the Cavaliers will stick another sword in Duke's rapidly deflating season. Pick Virginia.
-- LSU at Ole Miss -4.0. Speaking of deflating, let's talk LSU. Is Les Miles' seat getting warm? If it is, it will probably be even warmer after the trip to Oxford. Pick Ole Miss.
-- Southern Cal at Oregon -4.5. After some early season stumbles, the Ducks are back. They knocked Stanford out of the playoff picture last week. This week, they will take care of the Trojans. Pick Oregon.
Last Week -- 4-6
For The Season -- 57-58
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Bonus Selection Sends Record Below .500
The greedy shall not prosper.
I should have left well enough alone last week, but I had to make an extra selection.
Wrong.
Texas Tech at West Virginia. The over was 80.5. That total is nothing for a typical Big 12 game. The Red Raiders and Mountaineers didn't even come close.
The result? 5-6 for week to put me at one game over .500 for the season.
Oh, well. Time to move on. Here are this week's selections. As always, picks are against the spread.
-- Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech -3. The Techs hook up Thursday night on the Flats. Virginia Tech is looking for one more victory to get retiring head coach Frank Beamer to a bowl game. Georgia Tech needs to win its last three games to get to a bowl for the 19th consecutive year. Georgia Tech has disappointed me all season long, but I am going to try the Jackets one more time. Pick Georgia Tech.
-- Florida -7.5 at South Carolina. Florida clinched the SEC East last week in ugly fashion with a nasty-looking 9-7 victory over hapless Vanderbilt. South Carolina returns home after back-to-back narrow losses on the road at Texas A&M and Tennessee. The Gamecocks are showing life. (Take note Clemson fans. Nov. 28 will not be a walk-over) I think the Gamecocks going to win this game outright. Pick South Carolina.
-- Oklahoma State -14 at Iowa State. In 2011, the Cowboys got upset in Ames. That loss cost the Cowboys a possible shot at the national championship. Now, the same scenario is in place. But I don't think the Cowboys are going to fall off their horse this time. Pick Oklahoma State.
-- Clemson -28 at Syracuse. No. 1 Clemson is coming off an emotional victory. Syracuse has lost six in a row. The Carrier Dome will be half full. The Orange hung with LSU earlier in the season. I don't think they will hang with the Tigers, but I also think the 28 points is too much. The Tigers win but not by four TDs. Pick Syracuse.
-- Pittsburgh at Duke -3.5. Duke rebounds (basketball season starts Friday) in a big way by beating the Panthers. Pick Duke.
-- N.C. State at Florida State -9. Florida State got outplayed in the second half at Clemson. Will the Seminoles recover and be ready for N.C. State? I think so. Pick Florida State.
-- Alabama -7.5 at Mississippi State. Everyone has been singing the praises of Alabama this week. I mean everyone. Listening to the talk, one would think the one-loss Crimson Tide is invicible. We all know you can't run on the Tide. But dual threat quarterbacks drive Bama crazy. Mississippi State's Dak Prescott can pass and he can run. Prescott is the winningest quarterback in Mississippi State history. The timing of this game is really good for the Bulldogs. It may just be wishful thinking, but I am picking Mississippi State to win the game outright. Pick Mississippi State.
-- Miami (Fla.) at North Carolina -12.5. Since Al Golden left town, the Hurricanes are undefeated. Can win three in a row and throw the ACC Coastal Division race into chaos? I don't think so. Pick North Carolina.
-- Memphis at Houston -7. The Cougars remain unbeaten and Houston head coach Tom Herman remains on South Carolina's coaching search radar with a shootout victory over Memphis. Pick Houston.
-- Oklahoma at Baylor -2.5. A real test for the Bears. This is a Big 12 elimination game. The Bears lost starting quarterback Seth Russell to a neck injury in late October. True freshman Jarrett Stidham directed Baylor to a victory at Kansas State. Is the player or is it the system? We are going to find out. This may be the biggest whiff of the season, but I am going to crawl out on the industrial strength limb and take the Sooners. Pick Oklahoma.
Last Week: 5-6
For The Season: 53-52
I should have left well enough alone last week, but I had to make an extra selection.
Wrong.
Texas Tech at West Virginia. The over was 80.5. That total is nothing for a typical Big 12 game. The Red Raiders and Mountaineers didn't even come close.
The result? 5-6 for week to put me at one game over .500 for the season.
Oh, well. Time to move on. Here are this week's selections. As always, picks are against the spread.
-- Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech -3. The Techs hook up Thursday night on the Flats. Virginia Tech is looking for one more victory to get retiring head coach Frank Beamer to a bowl game. Georgia Tech needs to win its last three games to get to a bowl for the 19th consecutive year. Georgia Tech has disappointed me all season long, but I am going to try the Jackets one more time. Pick Georgia Tech.
-- Florida -7.5 at South Carolina. Florida clinched the SEC East last week in ugly fashion with a nasty-looking 9-7 victory over hapless Vanderbilt. South Carolina returns home after back-to-back narrow losses on the road at Texas A&M and Tennessee. The Gamecocks are showing life. (Take note Clemson fans. Nov. 28 will not be a walk-over) I think the Gamecocks going to win this game outright. Pick South Carolina.
-- Oklahoma State -14 at Iowa State. In 2011, the Cowboys got upset in Ames. That loss cost the Cowboys a possible shot at the national championship. Now, the same scenario is in place. But I don't think the Cowboys are going to fall off their horse this time. Pick Oklahoma State.
-- Clemson -28 at Syracuse. No. 1 Clemson is coming off an emotional victory. Syracuse has lost six in a row. The Carrier Dome will be half full. The Orange hung with LSU earlier in the season. I don't think they will hang with the Tigers, but I also think the 28 points is too much. The Tigers win but not by four TDs. Pick Syracuse.
-- Pittsburgh at Duke -3.5. Duke rebounds (basketball season starts Friday) in a big way by beating the Panthers. Pick Duke.
-- N.C. State at Florida State -9. Florida State got outplayed in the second half at Clemson. Will the Seminoles recover and be ready for N.C. State? I think so. Pick Florida State.
-- Alabama -7.5 at Mississippi State. Everyone has been singing the praises of Alabama this week. I mean everyone. Listening to the talk, one would think the one-loss Crimson Tide is invicible. We all know you can't run on the Tide. But dual threat quarterbacks drive Bama crazy. Mississippi State's Dak Prescott can pass and he can run. Prescott is the winningest quarterback in Mississippi State history. The timing of this game is really good for the Bulldogs. It may just be wishful thinking, but I am picking Mississippi State to win the game outright. Pick Mississippi State.
-- Miami (Fla.) at North Carolina -12.5. Since Al Golden left town, the Hurricanes are undefeated. Can win three in a row and throw the ACC Coastal Division race into chaos? I don't think so. Pick North Carolina.
-- Memphis at Houston -7. The Cougars remain unbeaten and Houston head coach Tom Herman remains on South Carolina's coaching search radar with a shootout victory over Memphis. Pick Houston.
-- Oklahoma at Baylor -2.5. A real test for the Bears. This is a Big 12 elimination game. The Bears lost starting quarterback Seth Russell to a neck injury in late October. True freshman Jarrett Stidham directed Baylor to a victory at Kansas State. Is the player or is it the system? We are going to find out. This may be the biggest whiff of the season, but I am going to crawl out on the industrial strength limb and take the Sooners. Pick Oklahoma.
Last Week: 5-6
For The Season: 53-52
Friday, November 6, 2015
That's More Like, Wow What A Week
After swinging and missing for several weeks, I finally connected last week.
The slate was 8-2 overall, by far the best of the season. The eight correct picks also moved back over the .500 mark for the season.
The misses were A&M failing to cover against pesky South Carolina and Notre Dame missing the spread in a narrow victory over Temple.
But now is not the time to get cocky. Fans always remember November. The first Saturday of November has some dynamite games.
As always, the picks are against the spread. Here are this week's selections:
-- Florida State at Clemson -12: This will be the first game Clemson has ever played as the No. 1 team in the country. The overriding question about this game -- Can the Tigers handle the intense focus of being No. 1? They get a severe test as ACC bully Florida State comes to the Valley. FSU has won three straight against the Tigers and drilled the Tigers the last time they came to Clemson. Florida State's Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the country. Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson has been on a roll. A simple analysis of this game -- Which ever No. 4 plays the best will lead his team to victory. But I think the Tigers have more balance on both sides of the ball. And I am beginning to believe they have destiny on their side. Pick Clemson.
-- TCU -5.5 at Oklahoma State: Yet another Big 12 shootout. A battle of unbeatens. Can the Cowboys hang? I think they can. Pick the Pokes.
-- South Carolina at Tennessee -16.5: South Carolina put forth a great effort but came up short at College Station. The spread is a little high, but I see a Gamecock letdown in Knoxville. Pick Tennessee.
-- Duke at North Carolina -8. The winner of this one will take control of the Coastal Division. Duke did get screwed last week, but that game should have never come down to Miami's miracle play. The Blue Devils only have themselves to blame. The Heels have not lost since they gagged against South Carolina the opening week of the season. It pains me to pick either one of these teams, but I going with the Heels. Pick North Carolina.
-- Arkansas at Ole Miss -10.5: Most of the SEC is secretly hoping Ole Miss can lose another conference game. If Ole Miss wins out, the Rebels will win the West and put the SEC's playoff chances in jeopardy. I like the Rebels at home. Take Ole Miss.
-- Kentucky at Georgia -14.0. Georgia hasn't scored a touchdown in two weeks and it is a 14-point favorite? Somebody must know something. All of the talk coming out of Athens has been about internal problems in the program. There has been no talk about Kentucky. I believe the end is near for Mark Richt. I think the Wildcats will cover the spread. Pick Kentucky.
-- Notre Dame -8 at Pittsburgh: The Panthers, coming off a loss to North Carolina, will drop their second straight game. Pick Notre Dame.
-- Army at Air Force -17.0. Air Force will have too much firepower for the Black Knights of the Hudson. Pick Air Force.
-- LSU at Alabama -6.5: After the release of the first playoff poll, Alabama has received most of the criticism from the pundits. The Tide has one loss, a home loss to two-loss Ole Miss. This is put up or shut up time for the Tide. LSU is unbeaten and can knock Alabama out of the conversation with a victory. This one will be for men only, and I think it will be close. So, I'm taking the points. Pick LSU.
-- Texas Tech at West Virginia -8. The Mountaineers will win a track meet. Bonus Pick -- Over/Under is 80. Take the Over. Take West Virginia.
Last Week -- 8-2
For The Season -- 48-46
The slate was 8-2 overall, by far the best of the season. The eight correct picks also moved back over the .500 mark for the season.
The misses were A&M failing to cover against pesky South Carolina and Notre Dame missing the spread in a narrow victory over Temple.
But now is not the time to get cocky. Fans always remember November. The first Saturday of November has some dynamite games.
As always, the picks are against the spread. Here are this week's selections:
-- Florida State at Clemson -12: This will be the first game Clemson has ever played as the No. 1 team in the country. The overriding question about this game -- Can the Tigers handle the intense focus of being No. 1? They get a severe test as ACC bully Florida State comes to the Valley. FSU has won three straight against the Tigers and drilled the Tigers the last time they came to Clemson. Florida State's Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the country. Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson has been on a roll. A simple analysis of this game -- Which ever No. 4 plays the best will lead his team to victory. But I think the Tigers have more balance on both sides of the ball. And I am beginning to believe they have destiny on their side. Pick Clemson.
-- TCU -5.5 at Oklahoma State: Yet another Big 12 shootout. A battle of unbeatens. Can the Cowboys hang? I think they can. Pick the Pokes.
-- South Carolina at Tennessee -16.5: South Carolina put forth a great effort but came up short at College Station. The spread is a little high, but I see a Gamecock letdown in Knoxville. Pick Tennessee.
-- Duke at North Carolina -8. The winner of this one will take control of the Coastal Division. Duke did get screwed last week, but that game should have never come down to Miami's miracle play. The Blue Devils only have themselves to blame. The Heels have not lost since they gagged against South Carolina the opening week of the season. It pains me to pick either one of these teams, but I going with the Heels. Pick North Carolina.
-- Arkansas at Ole Miss -10.5: Most of the SEC is secretly hoping Ole Miss can lose another conference game. If Ole Miss wins out, the Rebels will win the West and put the SEC's playoff chances in jeopardy. I like the Rebels at home. Take Ole Miss.
-- Kentucky at Georgia -14.0. Georgia hasn't scored a touchdown in two weeks and it is a 14-point favorite? Somebody must know something. All of the talk coming out of Athens has been about internal problems in the program. There has been no talk about Kentucky. I believe the end is near for Mark Richt. I think the Wildcats will cover the spread. Pick Kentucky.
-- Notre Dame -8 at Pittsburgh: The Panthers, coming off a loss to North Carolina, will drop their second straight game. Pick Notre Dame.
-- Army at Air Force -17.0. Air Force will have too much firepower for the Black Knights of the Hudson. Pick Air Force.
-- LSU at Alabama -6.5: After the release of the first playoff poll, Alabama has received most of the criticism from the pundits. The Tide has one loss, a home loss to two-loss Ole Miss. This is put up or shut up time for the Tide. LSU is unbeaten and can knock Alabama out of the conversation with a victory. This one will be for men only, and I think it will be close. So, I'm taking the points. Pick LSU.
-- Texas Tech at West Virginia -8. The Mountaineers will win a track meet. Bonus Pick -- Over/Under is 80. Take the Over. Take West Virginia.
Last Week -- 8-2
For The Season -- 48-46
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