Friday, November 27, 2015

It's Rivalry Week

Fresh off losing a few dollars during a quick trip to Las Vegas, it is time to make selections for Rivalry Week.
I will brag on myself a little bit. I hit 3 of 4 college basketball selections at the MGM Sports Book and I am holding a Clemson -17.5 ticket for Saturday's big game in Columbia.
Last week's blog record was a respectable 7-3. If you played just the last seven selections, you went 7-0. You're welcome.
The overall record now stands at 64 up and 61 down.
This is the final Saturday with a full slate of games, so there are plenty of rivalries. Don't throw anything out the window this week except all of the cliches.
With a slight touch of jet lag and turkey hangover, here are this week's fearless selections:
-- Clemson -17 at South Carolina. The Gamecocks hit rock bottom last Saturday when they managed to lose to The Citadel. This is the ultimate baited trap. On paper, it looks like a rout of massive proportions. South Carolina can't score. Clemson can score. South Carolina can't stop anybody. When motivated, Clemson has one of the best defenses in the country. I expect the Gamecocks to try the zone read and run the quarterback a lot (In a surprise move, Pharoh Cooper perhaps?) South Carolina will hang for a while and might even get the lead, but in the end, I think Clemson just has too much. Pick Clemson.
-- Georgia -4 at Georgia Tech. Georgia is bad and is 8-3. Tech is awful and is 3-8. If the Jackets can pull off the upset, this might be the final time we see Mark Richt on the Georgia sideline. The two offenses have been anemic. I think the difference in this one is Georgia's D. Pick Georgia.
-- Oklahoma -7 at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys lost their perfect season last week. Oklahoma is one of the hottest teams in the country. In the century-long history of this series, Oklahoma State has beaten Oklahoma just 17 times. The winner of this game will still be in the playoff picture. Can the Pokes make it two in a row over the Sooners? I think so. Pick Oklahoma State.
-- Louisville -4.5 at Kentucky. Louisville brings Kentucky's season to a merciful end. Pick Louisville.
-- Ohio State at Michigan Pick'em. Ohio State finally played somebody last week and lost. The Buckeyes get another top notch opponent Saturday when they journey to the Big House. And they will lose again. Pick Michigan.
-- Indiana -6.5 at Purdue. Indiana wins its fourth straight Oaken Bucket. Pick Indiana.
-- Duke -4 at Wake Forest. Yuck. Miami's miracle/illegal play destroyed Duke's season. Wake can play a little defense but has no offense. I believe Duke is going to wake up and slap the Deacons. Pick Duke.
-- Alabama -14.5 at Auburn. Alabama has been smashing everybody. Auburn is this only thing that stands between Alabama and a trip to Atlanta to face Florida for the SEC title. The Tide steamroller rolls on. Pick Alabama.
-- Vanderbilt at Tennessee -17.5. The Volunteers will have a relaxed Saturday. Pick Tennessee.
-- Ole Miss -1 at Mississippi State. State will scramble Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. Pick Mississippi State.
-- Florida State -2.5 at Florida. Florida is the worst one-loss team in the country. The Gators will get loss No. 2 on Saturday. Pick Florida State.
-- Texas A&M at LSU -5.5. LSU's painful slide ends but will it matter for Les Miles? Pick LSU.
-- North Carolina -5.5 at N.C. State. Will North Carolina be looking ahead to the ACC Championship match up against Clemson? I think so. The Wolfpack pulls off a treasured upset. Pick N.C. State.
-- Virginia Tech -3.0 at Virginia. This is probably Mike London's last game in Charlottesville. Frank Beamer needs a victory to get to a bowl. Virginia rises up and pulls off the upset. Pick Virginia.
-- Notre Dame at Stanford -3.5. Notre Dame committed five turnovers in last week's victory over Stanford. The Irish go to Palo Alto needing a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. It's not going to happen. Pick Stanford.
-- UCLA at Southern Cal -3.0. Southern Cal got smashed last week at Oregon. I am expecting a strong Trojan rebound effort. Pick Southern Cal.

Last Week -- 7-3
For The Season -- 64-61



Thursday, November 19, 2015

Season Record Drops Below .500


Last week's record of 4-6 pushed the season record below .500.
One of my correct picks was the Clemson-Syracuse game. The Tigers, a 28-point favorite, got surprised by Syracuse's triple option but managed to escape with a 10-point victory. The dream is still alive.
It is crunch time with just two weeks remaining in the regular season.
The pressure is on. Let's see if we can handle it and put together a late-season run and reach something that looks like respectability.
As always, the picks are against the spread.
-- Georgia Tech at Miami Pick'em. I am tired of picking Georgia Tech and losing. So I am picking Miami. Take the Hurricanes.
-- Wake Forest at Clemson -29. Wake has a decent defense. Twenty-nine is a lot of points. Clemson failed to cover a huge spread last week. Saturday is Clemson's final home game -- Senior Day, Purple Out, Military Appreciation Day. This game is always an extremely emotional day at Clemson. It has been a magical season so far for the Tigers. I believe home field and the refocusing of the defense this week will lead to a cover for the Tigers this week. Pick Clemson.
-- Georgia Southern at Georgia -14.5. Georgia is making its typical late-season run to get to nine or 10 wins. Rumors continue to swirl that Mark Richt is done after this season. Richt is doing all he can to hang on. (Jimbo Fisher to Georgia?) The Eagles could make it interesting for a while, but I think the Bulldogs with cover. Pick Georgia.
-- Baylor at Oklahoma State Pick'em. As some of you know, I have a lot of family members who graduated from Oklahoma State. For several weeks, I have been dreaming of an all-orange national championship game in Scottsdale, Ariz. on Jan. 11. The Pokes need just two more wins and I think they're in the playoff. First hurdle is Baylor, which got beaten up by Oklahoma last week. I like the unbeaten Pokes at home. Pick Oklahoma State.
-- Memphis -1.5 at Temple. The Owls with a mild upset at home. Pick Temple.
-- North Carolina -6.5 at Virginia Tech. Saturday will be Frank Beamer's final game at Lane Stadium. North Carolina can clinch the Coastal Division title with a victory over Tech and a Pittsburgh loss. The Tar Heels have been steamrolling everything in their path. Can Virginia Tech slow the game down and control the Heels? It will be an emotional day in Blacksburg. How far will that emotion carry the Hokies? Pick Virginia Tech.
-- Michigan State at Ohio State -13.0. This spread looks too high. I think it is too high. Take Michigan State.
-- Duke at Virginia -2.5. While Mike London waits for the axe to fall, the Cavaliers will stick another sword in Duke's rapidly deflating season. Pick Virginia.
-- LSU at Ole Miss -4.0. Speaking of deflating, let's talk LSU. Is Les Miles' seat getting warm? If it is, it will probably be even warmer after the trip to Oxford. Pick Ole Miss.
-- Southern Cal at Oregon -4.5. After some early season stumbles, the Ducks are back. They knocked Stanford out of the playoff picture last week. This week, they will take care of the Trojans. Pick Oregon.

Last Week -- 4-6
For The Season -- 57-58

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Bonus Selection Sends Record Below .500

The greedy shall not prosper.
I should have left well enough alone last week, but I had to make an extra selection.
Wrong.
Texas Tech at West Virginia. The over was 80.5. That total is nothing for a typical Big 12 game. The Red Raiders and Mountaineers didn't even come close.
The result? 5-6 for week to put me at one game over .500 for the season.
Oh, well. Time to move on. Here are this week's selections. As always, picks are against the spread.
-- Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech -3. The Techs hook up Thursday night on the Flats. Virginia Tech is looking for one more victory to get retiring head coach Frank Beamer to a bowl game. Georgia Tech needs to win its last three games to get to a bowl for the 19th consecutive year. Georgia Tech has disappointed me all season long, but I am going to try the Jackets one more time. Pick Georgia Tech.
-- Florida -7.5 at South Carolina. Florida clinched the SEC East last week in ugly fashion with a nasty-looking 9-7 victory over hapless Vanderbilt. South Carolina returns home after back-to-back narrow losses on the road at Texas A&M and Tennessee. The Gamecocks are showing life. (Take note Clemson fans. Nov. 28 will not be a walk-over) I think the Gamecocks going to win this game outright. Pick South Carolina.
-- Oklahoma State -14 at Iowa State. In 2011, the Cowboys got upset in Ames. That loss cost the Cowboys a possible shot at the national championship. Now, the same scenario is in place. But I don't think the Cowboys are going to fall off their horse this time. Pick Oklahoma State.
-- Clemson -28 at Syracuse. No. 1 Clemson is coming off an emotional victory. Syracuse has lost six in a row. The Carrier Dome will be half full. The Orange hung with LSU earlier in the season. I don't think they will hang with the Tigers, but I also think the 28 points is too much. The Tigers win but not by four TDs. Pick Syracuse.
-- Pittsburgh at Duke -3.5. Duke rebounds (basketball season starts Friday) in a big way by beating the Panthers. Pick Duke.
-- N.C. State at Florida State -9. Florida State got outplayed in the second half at Clemson. Will the Seminoles recover and be ready for N.C. State? I think so. Pick Florida State.
-- Alabama -7.5 at Mississippi State. Everyone has been singing the praises of Alabama this week. I mean everyone. Listening to the talk, one would think the one-loss Crimson Tide is invicible. We all know you can't run on the Tide. But dual threat quarterbacks drive Bama crazy. Mississippi State's Dak Prescott can pass and he can run. Prescott is the winningest quarterback in Mississippi State history. The timing of this game is really good for the Bulldogs. It may just be wishful thinking, but I am picking Mississippi State to win the game outright. Pick Mississippi State.
-- Miami (Fla.) at North Carolina -12.5. Since Al Golden left town, the Hurricanes are undefeated. Can win three in a row and throw the ACC Coastal Division race into chaos? I don't think so. Pick North Carolina.
-- Memphis at Houston -7. The Cougars remain unbeaten and Houston head coach Tom Herman remains on South Carolina's coaching search radar with a shootout victory over Memphis. Pick Houston.
-- Oklahoma at Baylor -2.5. A real test for the Bears. This is a Big 12 elimination game. The Bears lost starting quarterback Seth Russell to a neck injury in late October. True freshman Jarrett Stidham directed Baylor to a victory at Kansas State. Is the player or is it the system? We are going to find out. This may be the biggest whiff of the season, but I am going to crawl out on the industrial strength limb and take the Sooners. Pick Oklahoma.

Last Week: 5-6
For The Season: 53-52




Friday, November 6, 2015

That's More Like, Wow What A Week

After swinging and missing for several weeks, I finally connected last week.
The slate was 8-2 overall, by far the best of the season. The eight correct picks also moved back over the .500 mark for the season.
The misses were A&M failing to cover against pesky South Carolina and Notre Dame missing the spread in a narrow victory over Temple.
But now is not the time to get cocky. Fans always remember November. The first Saturday of November has some dynamite games.
As always, the picks are against the spread. Here are this week's selections:
-- Florida State at Clemson -12: This will be the first game Clemson has ever played as the No. 1 team in the country. The overriding question about this game -- Can the Tigers handle the intense focus of being No. 1? They get a severe test as ACC bully Florida State comes to the Valley. FSU has won three straight against the Tigers and drilled the Tigers the last time they came to Clemson. Florida State's Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the country. Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson has been on a roll. A simple analysis of this game -- Which ever No. 4 plays the best will lead his team to victory. But I think the Tigers have more balance on both sides of the ball. And I am beginning to believe they have destiny on their side. Pick Clemson.
-- TCU -5.5 at Oklahoma State: Yet another Big 12 shootout. A battle of unbeatens. Can the Cowboys hang? I think they can. Pick the Pokes.
-- South Carolina at Tennessee -16.5: South Carolina put forth a great effort but came up short at College Station. The spread is a little high, but I see a Gamecock letdown in Knoxville. Pick Tennessee.
-- Duke at North Carolina -8. The winner of this one will take control of the Coastal Division. Duke did get screwed last week, but that game should have never come down to Miami's miracle play. The Blue Devils only have themselves to blame. The Heels have not lost since they gagged against South Carolina the opening week of the season. It pains me to pick either one of these teams, but I going with the Heels. Pick North Carolina.
-- Arkansas at Ole Miss -10.5: Most of the SEC is secretly hoping Ole Miss can lose another conference game. If Ole Miss wins out, the Rebels will win the West and put the SEC's playoff chances in jeopardy. I like the Rebels at home. Take Ole Miss.
-- Kentucky at Georgia -14.0. Georgia hasn't scored a touchdown in two weeks and it is a 14-point favorite? Somebody must know something. All of the talk coming out of Athens has been about internal problems in the program. There has been no talk about Kentucky. I believe the end is near for Mark Richt. I think the Wildcats will cover the spread. Pick Kentucky.
-- Notre Dame -8 at Pittsburgh: The Panthers, coming off a loss to North Carolina, will drop their second straight game. Pick Notre Dame.
-- Army at Air Force -17.0. Air Force will have too much firepower for the Black Knights of the Hudson. Pick Air Force.
-- LSU at Alabama -6.5: After the release of the first playoff poll, Alabama has received most of the criticism from the pundits. The Tide has one loss, a home loss to two-loss Ole Miss. This is put up or shut up time for the Tide. LSU is unbeaten and can knock Alabama out of the conversation with a victory. This one will be for men only, and I think it will be close. So, I'm taking the points. Pick LSU.
-- Texas Tech at West Virginia -8. The Mountaineers will win a track meet. Bonus Pick -- Over/Under is 80. Take the Over. Take West Virginia.

Last Week -- 8-2
For The Season -- 48-46