Friday, September 30, 2016

Finally, A Week Over The .500 Mark

It just almost a month, but we finally had a positive record last week.
We nailed Clemson, Georgia, and South Carolina. Clemson's defense destroyed Georgia Tech's triple option, but the Clemson offense continues to sleepwalk. Georgia got hammered at Ole Miss. The Dawgs have got massive offensive problems. South Carolina also continues to have major offensive problems.
The biggest wiffs were Michigan State and Wake Forest. Really Michigan State? 30-6 loss to Wisconsin? We predicted the Demon Deacons would fall from the ranks of the unbeatens, but they managed to slip by Indiana on the road.
The feature game this week is the massive ACC Atlantic showdown at Clemson Saturday night.
Well, let's get it on!
All picks are against the spread.
And of course, all picks are for entertainment purposes only.

Friday
Stanford at Washington -3.5. Biggest game of the season to date for Stanford. The Cardinal pulled out a victory late at UCLA. Washington was a sexy preseason pick in the Pac 12. Let's ride the Huskies. Pick -- Washington

Saturday
Miami (Fla) at Georgia Tech +7. Mark Richt was 13-2 against Georgia Tech when he was at Georgia, but his Bulldogs did have some struggles against the Jackets' triple option. I think the combination of Miami's defense and Hurricane quarterback Brad Kaaya will be to much for Tech. Pick -- Miami
Texas at Oklahoma State -2.5. The Horns come to Stillwater Saturday and the Pokes will be waiting on them with all guns loaded. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Tennessee at Georgia +3. Georgia got exposed last week at Ole Miss. Tennessee will do more damage to the Dawgs this week. Kirby, we've got a problem. Pick -- Georgia
Louisville at Clemson +2. This line has been all over the board. Clemson an underdog at home? I know Lamar "Action" Jackson is the runaway favorite for the Heisman Trophy at the moment but is he that good? The key to the game -- Can Clemson turn Jackson into a pocket passer? If Jackson is allowed to run, it could be a long night for the Tigers. Clemson has been in big games recently. Louisville has not. Pick -- Clemson
Texas A&M at South Carolina +17.5. South Carolina can't score. A&M can score. The spread is a little hefty, but I think the Aggies will find a way to cover. Pick -- Texas A&M
Virginia at Duke -3.5. Duke shocked the world last week at Notre Dame. Can the Blue Devils come off their Golden Dome high in time to deal with the struggling Cavaliers? The answer is yes. Pick -- Duke
North Carolina at Florida State -11. Florida State at home against the Fighting Larry Fedoras. I think the Noles roll. Pick -- Florida State
Wisconsin at Michigan -11. Wisconsin's impressive early-season run ends in the Big House. The Wolverines stay unbeaten. Pick -- Michigan
Wake Forest at N.C. State -11. Speaking of unbeatens, how about Wake Forest? The surprising Deacons travel to Raleigh to face the skiddish Wolfpack. As long as they are unbeaten, let's ride the Deacons. Pick -- Wake Forest

Last Week -- 6-4
For The Season -- 21-19-1

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

After Three Weeks, Still Can't Break Through The .500 Level

Three weeks in the books and all three weeks of picks have been dead even.
Louisville shocked the country last week by destroying Florida State. The Cardinals and dynamic quarterback Lamar Jackson look like the real deal.
Georgia and South Carolina both did damage to the picks record last week by barely covering narrow spreads.
Let's take a look at this week's selections. As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

Thursday
-- Clemson at Georgia Tech +9.5. Clemson is a shaky 3-0. Georgia Tech is an unknown 3-0. The Tigers have not won in Atlanta since 2003 and strange things always seem to happen at ancient Grant Field, especially to the Tigers. A Clemson victory will set up a surprising early-season showdown against streaking Louisville on Oct. 1. I don't think the Tigers will be looking ahead. They cannot afford to. Grouchy Paul Johnson and his triple option deserve respect. Clemson has been working on Georgia Tech for 10 days and the Tigers spend time on the triple option in the spring because they play Tech every year. The line opened at 11, so the gamblers have been taking Tech. I think this will be Clemson's coming out party. Pick -- Clemson

Saturday
-- Southern Cal at Utah -3.0. Southern Cal's season got off to a rotten start when it got mutilated by Alabama. Utah will add to the USC misery. Pick -- Utah
-- Georgia at Ole Miss -7.0. Bottom line, Georgia simply isn't ready to see what it is going to see Saturday in Oxford, Miss. Ole Miss, which has blown a pair of signature wins against Florida State and Alabama, will take out some frustration on the Dawgs. Pick -- Ole Miss
-- South Carolina at Kentucky -2.5. The Gamecocks travel to Lexington, Ky., to try and equal last season's win total (3). It won't happen. Pick -- Kentucky
-- Oklahoma State at Baylor -9.5. The Cowboys leave Stillwater for the first time this season to face undefeated Baylor. Oklahoma State's defense is equal to a speed bump. A really low speed bump. Take the Bears at home. Pick -- Baylor
-- Wisconsin at Michigan State -5.5. Reality sets in for Wisconsin. Michigan State showed it still has some punch by manhandling Notre Dame last Saturday. Pick -- Michigan State
-- Pittsburgh at North Carolina -7.0. This one might last four-plus hours. Pitt has allowed 84 points in its last two games. UNC has allowed 84 points in its three games this season. Defense will take a holiday in this one. The over/under is a joke at 67.5. Pick -- North Carolina
-- Florida at Tennessee -6.5. Tennessee has lost 11 in a row to Florida, the last two by a single point. The streak ends this week in Knoxville. Gators go down. Vols stamp themselves as SEC East favorites. Pick -- Tennessee
-- LSU at Auburn +3.5. Both of these teams are an offensive mess. The difference is LSU has one solid option -- powerful running back Leonard Fournette. Fournette rushed for 244 yards and three touchdowns against Auburn last season. Gus Malzahn's seat at Auburn ignites into a five-alarm fire after this one. Pick -- LSU
-- Wake Forest at Indiana -7.5. Undefeated Wake Forest will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. Pick -- Indiana

Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 15-15-1

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Clemson Disappoints, TCU Loss Means Trouble For Big 12

It is the most asked question in upstate South Carolina this week: What is wrong with Clemson?
The Tigers are 2-0 but have been less than impressive in both of their victories. Basically, they have stumbled their way to 2-0. Quarterback DeShaun Watson has not been sharp and his receivers need the "electric football rule" to be added to the book. (Electric football rule -- Any pass hitting a receiver in the air is considered complete. Receiver can pick up the ball and run with it.) Ray Ray McCloud forgot to take something with him over the goal line in one of the biggest bonehead plays in Clemson history. Fans felt pretty good about the development of the defensive unit until it fell apart in the final five minutes against Troy. The Tigers have this week against South Carolina State to get things straightened out. Clemson is not one of this week's 10 picks because there is not a line. But if I were you, I would take the South Carolina State Marching 101 and the give the points.
TCU lost in overtime to Arkansas to make the Big 12 the early favorite to be left out of the College Football playoff. Coupled with Oklahoma State's shocking and illegal loss to Central Michigan at home, the Big 12 already has two wheels over the cliff. Oklahoma must beat Ohio State to stay alive in the CFP conversation.
Last week was another .500 week. Kentucky, a 16-point underdog, was the biggest disappointment of the week. The Wildcats didn't come close to covering as they lost their 30th consecutive game to Florida.
Here are this week's selections. All picks are against the spread.

-- Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech -6.5. This is a tough spot for Tech. SEC opponent then Clemson on a short week. Can the Jackets focus on the Dores first? Pick -- Georgia Tech
-- Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State -6.0. Don't let a loss beat you twice. Thanks to a major officiating error, the Cowboys' playoff hopes to a major hit last Saturday. Pitt, led by bruising running back James Connor, knocked off Penn State and come to Stillwater full of confidence. This is a clash of offensive styles -- the wide-open Cowboys versus the plodding Panthers. Home field makes the difference. Pick -- Oklahoma State
-- East Carolina at South Carolina -3.5. The Gamecocks play their first home game of the season. South Carolina's offense is a major work in progress. East Carolina has momentum after beating N.C. State last Saturday, its sixth straight victory over an ACC team. Pick -- East Carolina
-- Georgia at Missouri +6.5. Georgia also has offensive issues. Kirby Smart can't decided on a quarterback. I think 6.5 is just too many points. Pick -- Missouri
-- Florida State at Louisville +2.5. This is the marquee game of the day. On paper, it looks like a real shootout. Too bad the kickoff is at noon. This is Louisville's first real test. Lamar Jackson has been superb in the first two games -- 13 touchdowns in 57 minutes. Can he do anything against a real defense? Pick -- Louisville
-- Colorado at Michigan -20.5. Where are you Cordell Stewart? The Wolverines will rough up the Buffs in the Big House. Pick -- Michigan
-- Boston College at Virginia Tech -6.0. Both of these teams have offensive issues. Please God, don't let Virginia Tech wear those rock uniforms ever again. Thank you. Amen. Take the Hokies at home. Pick -- Virginia Tech
-- Alabama at Ole Miss -10. Nick Saban screaming at Lane Kiffin late in last week's game set the stage for this week. Saban is dialed in. The Rebels have won two straight against the Tide. That streak ends Saturday. Pick -- Alabama
-- Michigan State at Notre Dame -7.5. The Spartans do not have enough offense to keep up with the Domers. Pick -- Notre Dame
-- Ohio State at Oklahoma +1.5. It's mid-September but it's do-or-die for the Sooners. A second loss would almost certainly eliminate Oklahoma from playoff consideration. The Buckeyes rarely leave Columbus in September. They prefer a steady diet of home cupcakes before Big 10 play begins. I may be a sucker, but I can't pass up the Sooners getting points at home. Pick -- Oklahoma

Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 10-10-1

Thursday, September 8, 2016

After One Week At .500

After a wild Week One, the record stands at .500.
There weren't any big wiffs. I count Texas beating Notre Dame as probably the biggest surprise of the weekend.
Both Wisconsin and Houston won outright to cover their spreads. I nailed both of those games.
The big miss was Tennessee, a 20-point favorite, that had to fight like hell to beat Appalachian State.
I thought North Carolina could get Georgia, but Larry Fedora pulled his normal disappearing act in the first game of the season.
Clemson would have covered, but Dabo Swinney did too much thinking and decided not to kick the clinching field goal. Auburn took the ball and got off two Hail Marys before Clemson was finally able to end the game and keep numerous TVs in upstate South Carolina from being destroyed.
I got Florida State correct, but the Seminoles had to pull off the biggest comeback in school history to stun Ole Probation, I mean Ole Miss.
There was one push. Georgia Tech scored a late touchdown to beat Boston College by three.
This week's slate of games is not nearly as attractive as Week One. Here are this week's selections. As always, the picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only:

Friday's Game
-- Louisville at Syracuse -14.5. A somewhat interesting match up. This is the ACC opener for both teams. Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino is 5-0 against the Orange. Syracuse first-year head coach Dino Babers has installed a fast-paced offense and he promises to go even faster in the future. Babers wants 80-plus snaps per game. Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for eight touchdowns in the first half against outmanned Charlotte in the opener. The big question -- Will Louisville be looking ahead to Florida State? I don't think so. Pick -- Louisville

Saturday's Games
-- Troy at Clemson +36. No worries about kicking a field goal this week. Everybody plays. Everybody has a good time. Tigers in a laugher. Pick -- Clemson
-- South Carolina at Mississippi State -6.5. The Bulldogs blew a 17-point lead at home to lose their opener to South Alabama, a program that has existed for just seven seasons. South Carolina won a fist fight in Nashville thanks to the strong leg of Elliott Fry. Fry hit a career-long 55-yard field goal to win the game for the Gamecocks. The combination of State getting slapped in the face by South Alabama plus playing in Stark-Vegas will be too much for South Carolina. Pick -- Mississippi State
-- N.C. State at East Carolina +4.5. The Wolfpack travels east to renew a heated, under-the-radar rivalry. East Carolina plans to "stripe" the stadium with sections alternating purple and gold. Back in the day, these two schools hated each other. It is going to be interesting to see if time has cooled things down a bit. The Pirates can score, so I like the points. Pick -- East Carolina
-- Boston College at Massachusetts +16. UMass went to the Swamp and gave the suspect Gators all they wanted. BC went across the pond and suffered yet another narrow loss when Georgia Tech scored a touchdown with less than 30 seconds to play to win by three. The spread indicates to me that somebody knows something. Pick -- Boston College
-- Penn State at Pittsburgh -6, Pitt running James Connor is one of the best stories in college football. Connor has returned from a major knee injury and cancer to play for the Panthers. Playing in his first game after a year off last Saturday, Connor scored two touchdowns in Pitt's 28-7 victory over Villanova. The James Franklin era has yet to take off in Happy Valley. These two last met in 2000, a 12-0 Pitt victory that snapped a seven-game Penn State winning streak in the series. Connors' tough running and the Pitt defense will make the difference. Pick -- Pittsburgh
-- Wake Forest at Duke -5. I consider David Cutcliffe a miracle worker. He has been a winner everywhere he has been as a coach. He has made Duke football relevant. Wake football is back to where it came from before the glory days of Jim Grobe. In the toilet. Pick -- Duke
-- Kentucky at Florida -16. After the first week of the season, I think the key to this game is the line. I just don't think Florida can beat anybody by 16. Pick -- Kentucky
-- Arkansas at TCU -7.5. Here's a statistical oddity. Arkansas has won five in a row against TCU in Fort Worth. These two schools haven't played since 1991 -- Arkansas' final season in the Southwest Conference. It wasn't that long ago that TCU was known for defense. Now, the Frog faithful are wondering -- Where is the defense? This is a definite clash of offensive styles -- High-flying TCU versus plodding Arkansas. I will take the Frogs. Pick -- TCU
-- Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee -11.5 at Bristol, Tenn. A crowd of around 180,000 is expected at the converted Bristol Motor Speedway for this meeting between the Hokies and Vols. First-year Tech head coach Justin Fuente won his opener -- a 36-13 decision over Liberty. Tennessee, the preseason favorite in the SEC East, had to survive upstart Appalachian State in the opener. The Hokies are still too much of an unknown. Big question of the night. Will that say -- "Drivers, start your engines!" before the kickoff. Pick -- Tennessee

Weekly Record -- 5-5-1
Season Record -- 5-5-1