Pride cometh before the fall. Sometimes you have to relearn a little life lesson. Get a little bit cocky and you get punched in the face.
Last week's record was the worst in the history of this blog -- 1-9. The only thing between me and a doughnut was Virginia's pounding of a hapless Louisville squad.
From this point, the only thing to do is get up off the turf and try again. So that's what we're going to do. The season record is now 16-22-1. The immediate goal is to get back to .500.
As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only. Here are this week's selections.
Syracuse at Clemson -25.5 -- Interesting tidbit on this game. When Kelly Bryant decided to pick up his ball and go home, the line went up three points. Trevor Lawrence has demonstrated he can run the offense and distribute the ball. Syracuse dominated a listless Clemson team last year on a Friday night. The memory of that game still stings. Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungy runs an incredibly fast offense and is excellent on RPO plays. The Orange know they can beat Clemson because they did it last year. After an emotional week in Clemson, I think the Tigers will win, but I also think the line is too high. Pick -- Clemson
South Carolina at Kentucky -1.5 -- The Wildcats have won four in a row against the Gamecocks. Make it five. Pick -- Kentucky
Tennessee at Georgia -31.5 -- The Bulldogs will add several barrels of fuel to the Vol dumpster fire. Pick -- Georgia
West Virginia at Texas Tech +3.5 -- After dominating Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week, the Red Raiders return home face Heisman Trophy candidate Will Grier and the high-flying Mountaineers. Any game involving Texas Tech means a lot of points. I smell an upset. Pick -- Texas Tech
Virginia at N.C. State -5.5 -- Improving Virginia gets a dose of reality in Raleigh. Pick -- N.C. State
Florida State at Louisville +6.5 -- Remember when this matchup was highly anticipated? It wasn't that long ago. Both of these programs are searching for something, anything, to give them a spark. Both offenses are a mess. It is difficult to pick the Seminoles and give the points, but the Cardinals are that bad. Pick -- Florida State
Michigan at Northwestern +14 -- Jeremy Larkin, Northwestern's leading rusher, had to retire this week because of a neck condition. Northwestern's offense was struggling with Larkin. It will really struggle now. The Wolverines should roll. Pick -- Michigan
Florida at Mississippi State -8.0 -- Interesting line considering Florida rolled Tennessee in Knoxville, while Mississippi State took a beating in Bluegrass Country. Florida head coach Dan Mullen returns to Stark-Vegas. They will be waiting on him. Pick -- Mississippi State
Virginia Tech at Duke -5.0 -- Coming off a shocking loss to Old Dominion, the Hokies travel to undefeated Duke. Both teams have had to adjust to losing their starting quarterbacks to injury. Duke has had more time to adjust. Pick -- Duke
Ohio State at Penn State +3.5 -- Winner of this game becomes the Big Ten favorite to make the College Football Playoff. White out conditions in Happy Valley, so the environment will be tough on the Buckeyes. Take the points. Pick -- Penn State
Last Week -- 1-9
Season To Date -- 16-22-1
Thursday, September 27, 2018
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Sterling Week Pushes Record Above .500
It's time to brag. After two mediocre weeks, the Picks Machine heated up last week to produce a sterling 6-2-1 record. Georgia Tech and Houston provided the only blemishes on last week's picks. And one game -- Marshall at South Carolina -- was lost to Hurricane Florence.
I am calling this Road Warrior Saturday. Clemson, Georgia, and South Carolina all have interesting/scary road contests with point spreads that force you to take a second look. And a third look.
Any time Clemson is favored by more than two touchdowns it is difficult to take the Tigers because they rarely pull away and have a bad habit of letting the opposition hang around. Georgia has looked impressive early and is a two-touchdown favorite at Missouri. Mizzou, whose offensive coordinator is Derek Dooley, son of Georgia's legendary Vince Dooley, has a high-scoring offense. Question is can Mizzou score on the Junkyard Dawgs? South Carolina has won nine straight against Vandy. The Commodores gave Notre Dame all it wanted last Saturday in South Bend. Be extremely careful Gamecocks.
All picks are against the spread and are for entertainment purposes only.
Here are this week's selections.
Georgia at Missouri +14 -- This is an interesting trip for the Dawgs. Georgia has stomped the opposition so far this season. Missouri has scored 40 or more points in its three games. To date, the Dawgs have looked the part of a playoff team. I believe the Georgia defense will lock down the Missouri offense. Pick -- Georgia
Clemson at Georgia Tech +16.5 -- Clemson has yet to find its rhythm this season. Paul Johnson is crankier than usual because his football team is a three-alarm dumpster fire. Tech will be excited to be at home but that excitement will last for just a short period of time. Talent should take over. Strange things can happen at Grant Field. I think this spread is too high, but the Tigers will survive. Pick -- Georgia Tech.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +2.0 -- South Carolina has owned Vandy. The Commodores can play defense. I expect a titanic struggle in Nashville. Pick -- Vanderbilt
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State +13.0 -- Buckle your seat belts for this one. Both of these teams can score. And score a lot. Texas Tech wiped out Houston last week. The Red Raiders have scored 140 points in the last two games. The Pokes have played well with senior quarterback Taylor "Corn Dog" Cornelius at the controls. Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has yet to play a Power Five team. With an over/under of 77.5, Vegas is expecting a shootout. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Notre Dame at Wake Forest +7.5 -- The Irish hit the road for the first time. The Domers have beaten three opponents by an average of 6.6 points per game. The Deacons dropped a narrow decision to Boston College last week. I expect an inspired effort from the Deacons. Pick -- Wake Forest
Boston College at Purdue +6.5 -- BC running back A.J. Dillon is the real deal. Purdue is 0-3 and has lost three games by an average of 2.6 points per game. Is this week the Boilermakers break through? Nope. Pick -- Boston College
Louisville at Virginia -5.0 -- Interesting matchup between two 2-1 teams. Louisville by beaten two cupcakes since getting blasted by Alabama in the opener. Virginia put in some extra effort -- at trip to Nashville -- to get last week's victory against Ohio. I think the point spread is for the home field. Pick -- Virginia
Texas A&M at Alabama -27.0 -- Alabama is showing no signs of letting up. It will take a perfect game by the opposition to have any chance against the Tide. The Aggies will get plowed. Pick -- Alabama
TCU at Texas +3.5 -- The No. 1 question surrounding this game -- After the physical battle with Ohio State, will the Frogs be able to pump up their emotional balloon for the Longhorns? I think the Frogs defense will be the difference. Pick -- TCU
Florida at Tennessee +4.5 -- The Rebuilding Bowl takes place this Saturday in Knoxville. A loss for the Gators would end any hope of the SEC East title before the end of September. That's tough to take. Tennessee has had a lot of bad luck against Florida. I think that changes Saturday. Pick -- Tennessee
Last Week -- 6-2-1
For The Season -- 15-13-1
I am calling this Road Warrior Saturday. Clemson, Georgia, and South Carolina all have interesting/scary road contests with point spreads that force you to take a second look. And a third look.
Any time Clemson is favored by more than two touchdowns it is difficult to take the Tigers because they rarely pull away and have a bad habit of letting the opposition hang around. Georgia has looked impressive early and is a two-touchdown favorite at Missouri. Mizzou, whose offensive coordinator is Derek Dooley, son of Georgia's legendary Vince Dooley, has a high-scoring offense. Question is can Mizzou score on the Junkyard Dawgs? South Carolina has won nine straight against Vandy. The Commodores gave Notre Dame all it wanted last Saturday in South Bend. Be extremely careful Gamecocks.
All picks are against the spread and are for entertainment purposes only.
Here are this week's selections.
Georgia at Missouri +14 -- This is an interesting trip for the Dawgs. Georgia has stomped the opposition so far this season. Missouri has scored 40 or more points in its three games. To date, the Dawgs have looked the part of a playoff team. I believe the Georgia defense will lock down the Missouri offense. Pick -- Georgia
Clemson at Georgia Tech +16.5 -- Clemson has yet to find its rhythm this season. Paul Johnson is crankier than usual because his football team is a three-alarm dumpster fire. Tech will be excited to be at home but that excitement will last for just a short period of time. Talent should take over. Strange things can happen at Grant Field. I think this spread is too high, but the Tigers will survive. Pick -- Georgia Tech.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +2.0 -- South Carolina has owned Vandy. The Commodores can play defense. I expect a titanic struggle in Nashville. Pick -- Vanderbilt
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State +13.0 -- Buckle your seat belts for this one. Both of these teams can score. And score a lot. Texas Tech wiped out Houston last week. The Red Raiders have scored 140 points in the last two games. The Pokes have played well with senior quarterback Taylor "Corn Dog" Cornelius at the controls. Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has yet to play a Power Five team. With an over/under of 77.5, Vegas is expecting a shootout. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Notre Dame at Wake Forest +7.5 -- The Irish hit the road for the first time. The Domers have beaten three opponents by an average of 6.6 points per game. The Deacons dropped a narrow decision to Boston College last week. I expect an inspired effort from the Deacons. Pick -- Wake Forest
Boston College at Purdue +6.5 -- BC running back A.J. Dillon is the real deal. Purdue is 0-3 and has lost three games by an average of 2.6 points per game. Is this week the Boilermakers break through? Nope. Pick -- Boston College
Louisville at Virginia -5.0 -- Interesting matchup between two 2-1 teams. Louisville by beaten two cupcakes since getting blasted by Alabama in the opener. Virginia put in some extra effort -- at trip to Nashville -- to get last week's victory against Ohio. I think the point spread is for the home field. Pick -- Virginia
Texas A&M at Alabama -27.0 -- Alabama is showing no signs of letting up. It will take a perfect game by the opposition to have any chance against the Tide. The Aggies will get plowed. Pick -- Alabama
TCU at Texas +3.5 -- The No. 1 question surrounding this game -- After the physical battle with Ohio State, will the Frogs be able to pump up their emotional balloon for the Longhorns? I think the Frogs defense will be the difference. Pick -- TCU
Florida at Tennessee +4.5 -- The Rebuilding Bowl takes place this Saturday in Knoxville. A loss for the Gators would end any hope of the SEC East title before the end of September. That's tough to take. Tennessee has had a lot of bad luck against Florida. I think that changes Saturday. Pick -- Tennessee
Last Week -- 6-2-1
For The Season -- 15-13-1
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Mediocre Start Continues
Last week's picks featured the biggest bust to date when I picked Pittsburgh as an upset special. Nice pick. The Panthers got destroyed at home by Penn State and should be happy they only have one more game on the current contact with the Nittany Lions.
I also wiffed badly on Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers went to College Station and used their same old tired script -- get a two-touchdown lead, sit on it, then cause great anxiety across the Upstate as the opposition takes a final stab at pulling out a victory. South Carolina held on in the first half then got steamrolled in the second half by a more talented Georgia team.
Three bad misses led to a 5-5 record and I remain two games under .500 after two weeks.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Let's get to this week's selections.
Boston College at Wake Forest +7 (Thursday) -- I believe Thursday nights (now late afternoon because of Florence) should be for college football only. A college game on Thursday night gets the weekend off to a good start. BC generated a lot of buzz in the preseason. The Eagles have the pieces to be competitive. BC running back A.J. Dillon is considered the best in the ACC. The Deacons can be tough in their own pulpit. A nice early season test for the Eagles. Pick -- Boston College
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh +5.0 -- Pitt is a major dumpster fire. Tech allowed South Florida to return two kickoff for touchdowns and the Bulls' offensive unit scored pretty much at will against Tech's revamped defense. I am guessing Pitt's offense is worse than Tech's defense. Pick -- Georgia Tech
Boise State at Oklahoma State -3.0 -- This is the most interesting game of the week. Boise State is looking like the Boise State of old. The Cowboys are 2-0 and are still scoring lots of points. Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin doesn't want to hear any talk about Power Five vs. Group of Five. Tough call, but I am going to take the home field. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Georgia Southern at Clemson -34.0 -- Rain and wind from Florence will be a major factor, which will make the +34 difficult to cover for the Tigers. Pick -- Georgia Southern
Marshall at South Carolina -13.5 -- Will the Gamecocks suffered a Dawg hangover? It has happened in the past. But I don't think it will happen this week. Pick -- South Carolina
Florida State at Syracuse +3.5 -- This might be the biggest gift of the weekend. Florida State is a mess. Did Jimbo leave the cupboard bare or is Willie Taggart totally lost? Syracuse is led by fiery quarterback Eric Dungey, who does an excellent job with run-pass options. I think the Noles are in serious trouble. Pick -- Syracuse
LSU at Auburn -9.5 -- This spread looks out of whack. An early SEC showdown on The Plains. I think the difference in the game will be the experience of Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham. But I still think the spread is too high -- LSU
Houston at Texas Tech -1.5 -- After blasting Arizona, Houston travels to Lubbock to face high-scoring Texas Tech in another Power Five vs. Group of Five matchup. The Red Raiders have five starters who are questionable because of injuries. And pressure is mounting on Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The Tech administration is expecting Kingsbury to show some improvement this season. Starting 1-2 means you better start working on your resume. Pick -- Houston
Alabama at Ole Miss +21.0 -- With Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and Nick Saban's angry defense, why would you pick against Bama? Why? Pick -- Alabama
Ohio State vs. TCU +12.5 at Arlington, Texas -- This is the third and final game of Urban Meyer's suspension. The Buckeyes, who have plowed through two cupcakes, hit the road and make a step up in competition. TCU head coach Gary Patterson is known for his defensive units, but the Horned Frogs have slipped recently. I think the Frogs will find a way to inside the spread. Pick -- TCU
Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 9-11
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Off To A Rocky Start, Tigers And Gamecock Face Challenges
After tripping coming out of the gate, let's see if Week Two brings any improvement.
A disappointing 4-6 record in the first week dug us a hole but not a deep hole.
Week Two promises to be more challenging. There are some double-digit spreads but no real layups.
By late Saturday night, we will know much more than we know right now about Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers travel to Aggieland, while the Gamecocks welcome the SEC East favorite to Williams-Brice.
Here are this week's selections.
Georgia at South Carolina +10 -- South Carolina always seems to play Georgia to the wall. Most everyone expected a blowout in Athens last season, but the Gamecocks hung around all day. The Gamecocks have got some early confidence. Gamecock wide receiver Deebo Samuel made a highlight catch in the first game and there are many more to come. Georgia better bring it. I am expecting a real fistfight. The Gamecocks can't match Georgia's talent, but I do think they will cover. Pick -- South Carolina
Clemson at Texas A&M -12.5 -- The Tigers go on the road for a major challenge. Jimbo Fisher, who knows the Tigers well, is in his first season at A&M and Aggie fans have high expectations. The quotes coming out of College Station this week have been full of confidence. Reading between the lines, there is SEC arrogance in the air. This will be the largest crowd ever to see the Tigers play a game -- more than 102,000. But the Tigers have been in many big-time environments the last five years. The Tigers know when they take the field they are going to get everybody's best shot. I have been nervous about this one the entire off-season. But I am going to trust Clemson's defense lives up to its pre-season billing. Pick -- Clemson
Arizona at Houston -4.5 -- The Kevin Sumlin era in the desert started with a dud as the Wildcats lost to BYU. Sumlin returns to Houston where he used to coach to face a solid Cougar squad. Houston beat crosstown rival Rice in the opener. Houston defensive end Ed Oliver is considered one of the best in the country. Arizona will have to keep Oliver from creating total havoc to have a chance. Pick -- Houston
Colorado at Nebraska -5.0 -- College football needs to give us more games like this. Back in the days of the Big 8, these two schools played on Thanksgiving weekend. Colorado comes to Lincoln after routing Colorado State. Nebraska, thoroughly juiced about new head coach Scott Frost, is still waiting on the Huskers' season to start. Lightning forced the Huskers to cancel their opener against Akron. Colorado is somewhat known. Nebraska is still an unknown. But I expect the emotion of the home crowd to carry the Huskers. Pick -- Nebraska
Iowa State at Iowa -3.5 -- This will be Iowa State's first game. Lightning forced the Cyclones to postpone last week's game against South Dakota State. Iowa recorded a solid victory against Northern Illinois in its opener. Seems strange to play a rivalry this early. Again, I think home field will make the difference. Pick -- Iowa
Wyoming at Missouri -17.5 -- Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl has an impressive record of success against Missouri. As a player, grad assistant and assistant coach at Nebraska, Bohl was 13-1 against the Tigers. But the high-scoring Tigers will hand him an "L" Saturday. Pick -- Missouri
Arkansas at Colorado State +13.0 -- Colorado State is off to an 0-2 start after getting hammered by Colorado last Saturday. The Rams are allowing an average of 44.0 points per game. The last thing a struggling defense needs is to face a fast-paced Chad Morris offense. Pick -- Arkansas
Georgia Tech at South Florida +3.0 -- Is Paul Johnson ever happy? Nope. He is always complaining about something. There is positive talk about Tech's new 3-4 defense and new defensive coordinator Nate Woody. But Tech's offense continues to battle inconsistency. Offensive shootouts are not good for the Jackets. Pick -- South Florida
Penn State at Pittsburgh -8.5 -- There is some good old fashioned hate in this one. Penn State head coach James Franklin has let it be known he thinks the Panthers are not worthy of future games with the high and mighty Nittany Lions. In the history of Penn State football, the Nittany Lions have played more games against Pitt than any other opponent -- 98. Pitt has played just one opponent -- West Virginia -- more than it has Penn State. Penn State almost got "App-ed" last week at home. And angry Pitt team waits for them at Heinz Field. Upset special. -- Pittsburgh
Southern Cal at Stanford -4.5 -- One of the biggest games of the season in the Pac 12 in Week Two. I am a big fan of Stanford head coach David Shaw. I like the way his teams play -- tough and physical. Take the Cardinal at home. Pick -- Stanford
Last Week -- 4-6-0
For The Season -- 4-6-0
A disappointing 4-6 record in the first week dug us a hole but not a deep hole.
Week Two promises to be more challenging. There are some double-digit spreads but no real layups.
By late Saturday night, we will know much more than we know right now about Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers travel to Aggieland, while the Gamecocks welcome the SEC East favorite to Williams-Brice.
Here are this week's selections.
Georgia at South Carolina +10 -- South Carolina always seems to play Georgia to the wall. Most everyone expected a blowout in Athens last season, but the Gamecocks hung around all day. The Gamecocks have got some early confidence. Gamecock wide receiver Deebo Samuel made a highlight catch in the first game and there are many more to come. Georgia better bring it. I am expecting a real fistfight. The Gamecocks can't match Georgia's talent, but I do think they will cover. Pick -- South Carolina
Clemson at Texas A&M -12.5 -- The Tigers go on the road for a major challenge. Jimbo Fisher, who knows the Tigers well, is in his first season at A&M and Aggie fans have high expectations. The quotes coming out of College Station this week have been full of confidence. Reading between the lines, there is SEC arrogance in the air. This will be the largest crowd ever to see the Tigers play a game -- more than 102,000. But the Tigers have been in many big-time environments the last five years. The Tigers know when they take the field they are going to get everybody's best shot. I have been nervous about this one the entire off-season. But I am going to trust Clemson's defense lives up to its pre-season billing. Pick -- Clemson
Arizona at Houston -4.5 -- The Kevin Sumlin era in the desert started with a dud as the Wildcats lost to BYU. Sumlin returns to Houston where he used to coach to face a solid Cougar squad. Houston beat crosstown rival Rice in the opener. Houston defensive end Ed Oliver is considered one of the best in the country. Arizona will have to keep Oliver from creating total havoc to have a chance. Pick -- Houston
Colorado at Nebraska -5.0 -- College football needs to give us more games like this. Back in the days of the Big 8, these two schools played on Thanksgiving weekend. Colorado comes to Lincoln after routing Colorado State. Nebraska, thoroughly juiced about new head coach Scott Frost, is still waiting on the Huskers' season to start. Lightning forced the Huskers to cancel their opener against Akron. Colorado is somewhat known. Nebraska is still an unknown. But I expect the emotion of the home crowd to carry the Huskers. Pick -- Nebraska
Iowa State at Iowa -3.5 -- This will be Iowa State's first game. Lightning forced the Cyclones to postpone last week's game against South Dakota State. Iowa recorded a solid victory against Northern Illinois in its opener. Seems strange to play a rivalry this early. Again, I think home field will make the difference. Pick -- Iowa
Wyoming at Missouri -17.5 -- Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl has an impressive record of success against Missouri. As a player, grad assistant and assistant coach at Nebraska, Bohl was 13-1 against the Tigers. But the high-scoring Tigers will hand him an "L" Saturday. Pick -- Missouri
Arkansas at Colorado State +13.0 -- Colorado State is off to an 0-2 start after getting hammered by Colorado last Saturday. The Rams are allowing an average of 44.0 points per game. The last thing a struggling defense needs is to face a fast-paced Chad Morris offense. Pick -- Arkansas
Georgia Tech at South Florida +3.0 -- Is Paul Johnson ever happy? Nope. He is always complaining about something. There is positive talk about Tech's new 3-4 defense and new defensive coordinator Nate Woody. But Tech's offense continues to battle inconsistency. Offensive shootouts are not good for the Jackets. Pick -- South Florida
Penn State at Pittsburgh -8.5 -- There is some good old fashioned hate in this one. Penn State head coach James Franklin has let it be known he thinks the Panthers are not worthy of future games with the high and mighty Nittany Lions. In the history of Penn State football, the Nittany Lions have played more games against Pitt than any other opponent -- 98. Pitt has played just one opponent -- West Virginia -- more than it has Penn State. Penn State almost got "App-ed" last week at home. And angry Pitt team waits for them at Heinz Field. Upset special. -- Pittsburgh
Southern Cal at Stanford -4.5 -- One of the biggest games of the season in the Pac 12 in Week Two. I am a big fan of Stanford head coach David Shaw. I like the way his teams play -- tough and physical. Take the Cardinal at home. Pick -- Stanford
Last Week -- 4-6-0
For The Season -- 4-6-0
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