Friday, November 30, 2018

And Now The End Is Near...Championship Edition

     And now the end is near...
     The picker says thank goodness.
     This is the final week of what has been a lousy season of picks. There have been one-half point misses and massive whiffs. The result is the same -- a lot of losses.
     The overall record is 20 games under .500. Which means if you went the opposite way of my picks you did pretty well. No applause please. And a little juice would be appreciated.
     Championship weekend has some interesting matchups and some matchups that feature massive point spreads. Maybe the chaos we have been looking for will happen this weekend.
     Notre Dame is in the house undefeated and has a spot locked up in the College Football Playoff. Clemson is a heavy favorite to finish off an undefeated season and clinch a spot. Alabama has its biggest test to date against Georgia in a rematch of last season's national championship game. Many talking heads believe if Georgia wins both Alabama and Georgia will get into the playoff. If that happens, maybe the push for an eight-team playoff will pick up some momentum.
     If Alabama wins, the fourth spot will be decided between Oklahoma and Ohio State. Both have high-powered offenses and inconsistent, if not non-existent, defenses.
     If Oklahoma beats Texas for a second time this season, most talking heads believe the fourth spot will go to the Sooners. How many times can the committee leave the Big 10 out of the playoff field?
     I have always believed in an eight-team playoff. Get rid of this weekend and figure out how to get the Power Five conferences a check to replace their championship games. Four Power Five conference champions and three at-larges make the playoffs. Then there would be two fist fights in the committee room -- picking the three at-large teams and then seeding the field.
     Play the first round games at home sites. That set up would guarantee sellouts. Throw in TV money and there will be nice checks for everybody. 
     Money talks. College football is leaving a lot of money on the table. There will be empty seats at championship games this weekend. Fans are saving their money for the playoffs.
     Let's get to the final set of picks. As always picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

Friday
Pac 12
Utah vs. Washington -5.0 at Santa Clara, Calif. -- Winner goes to the Rose Bowl. The Huskies dominated Washington State last week to get to the championship game. Washington won the first meeting. I'm going to take the Huskies in the second meeting. Pick -- Washington

Saturday
Southeastern Conference
Georgia vs. Alabama -13.5 at Atlanta, Ga. -- At first glance, this spread looks big. Really big. Do the boys in the desert know something that we don't know. This is biggest test for both teams this season. To make the playoff, Georgia has to win. This is a tough one. I really wish both could lose, but a pick must be made. Pick -- Alabama

Atlantic Coast Conference
Pittsburgh vs. Clemson -27.5 at Charlotte, N.C. -- Clemson's defense has a major meltdown in its three-touchdown victory over South Carolina. But the Clemson offense was firing on all cylinders. After reviewing the film from the Duke and South Carolina games, I expect Pitt to try a similar plan -- move the ball from side to side, mix in some run, and then hit the Tigers over the middle. Pitt si run heavy and no one has run the ball on Clemson this season. Clemson better be prepared for the Utah pass. Rain is predicted which could turn this one into a phone booth brawl. After messing up big time last week, I expect the Clemson defense to have a laser-like focus in this one. Pick -- Clemson

Big 12
Texas vs. Oklahoma -8.0 at Arlington, Texas -- Texas won the first one in a shootout. I will take Oklahoma in the second one. Pick -- Oklahoma

Mountain West
Fresno State at Boise State -2.5 -- Never pick against the Broncos on the blue turf. Pick -- Boise State

Big Ten
Northwestern vs. Ohio State at Indianapolis, Ind. -14.0 -- Ohio State played one of its best games of the season against Michigan last week. The Wolverines rallied from an early deficit to get within two points then the Buckeyes blew their doors off. Ohio State makes a statement. Pick -- Ohio State

American Athletic Conference
Memphis at Central Florida -3.0 -- The awful injury suffered by Central Florida quarterback McKenzie Milton changed this game. I believe Central Florida's offensive talent, speed, and home field will be enough to keep the Knights undefeated. Pick -- Central Florida

Sun Belt
Louisiana-Lafayette at Applachian State -16.5 -- The trip up the mountain will be too much for the Ragin' Cajuns. Pick -- Applachian State


Last Week -- 3-7
For The Season -- 55-75-1


Thursday, November 22, 2018

It's Rivalry Saturday. Tigers Go For Five In A Row

     Traditional rivalries dominate the schedule on the final Saturday of the regular season.
     One of the biggest games is in Morgantown, West Virginia on Friday night when West Virginia plays host high-flying Oklahoma to determine a berth in the Big 12 Championship game.
     Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame all are heavy favorites to finish perfect 12-0 seasons.
     Last week's record was 5-4. The Stanford-Cal game was postponed because of the terrible wild fires in northern California.
     As always, the picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
    Now that the turkey and dressing has settled, let's get to it.

Friday
     Oklahoma at West Virginia +2.5 -- Oklahoma can score on anybody, but the Sooners can't tackle anybody. West Virginia's College Football Playoff hopes got shot down in Stillwater last week, but the Mountaineers can still make the Big 12 championship game. This will be a real shootout. I mean a real shootout. I predict several couch burnings Friday night in Morgantown. Pick -- West Virginia
     Washington at Washington State -2.5 -- How can you not pull for Mike Leach? He has opinions on everything. And he has done an incredible job with the Washington State program. The Cougars put up 55 points in the first half last week against Arizona. I think the Cougars will be clutching the Apple Cup late Friday night. Pick -- Washington State

Saturday
     Georgia Tech at Georgia -17.0 -- Clean Old-Fashioned Hate. Bottom line is Georgia has better athletes and has dominated the series the last 30 years. Tech, which has won four in a row, will hang for a while. Keep in mind, Paul Johnson has beaten Georgia twice between the Hedges. Will be the Dawgs be looking ahead to the SEC Championship game against Alabama? Maybe, but Georgia will stay interested long enough to take care of the Yellow Jackets. Pick -- Georgia
     South Carolina at Clemson -26.5 -- Never Again? Hold my beer. Tigers go for the one for the thumb. With the back end of South Carolina's defense turned into a M.A.S.H. unit, the situation doesn't look good for the Gamecocks. Maybe some of their bottle throwers will make the trip to Death Valley. The spread is large, but the Tigers have been up the the task for the last month. Pick -- Clemson
     Florida at Florida State +6.5 -- Florida State proved it does have a pulse last week by beating Boston College. Florida has been playing better on offense, but I still don't trust the Gators. The Seminoles need a victory to keep their bowl streak alive. FSU has not missed going to a bowl in 36 years. I am going to roll the dice and spin the wheel on this one. Pick -- Florida State
     Michigan at Ohio State +4.5 -- The outcome of this game will be determined by the defensive units. Ohio State's woeful defense has given up big plays in bunches. Michigan has been riding its defense most of the season. The Wolverines believe it is their time, but I am going to take the points. Pick -- Ohio State
     N.C. State at North Carolina +7.0 -- N.C. State recovered from a choke job against Wake Forest by pounding ACC punching back Louisville. North Carolina is awful, but the Tar Heels can score. And North Carolina handed Coastal Division champion Pittsburgh its only conference loss. The victory over the Panthers is the Tar Heels' lone conference win. I'm picking the Pack. Pick -- N.C. State
     Auburn at Alabama -24.0 -- Auburn just doesn't have enough offense. Alabama will be focused and in seek-and-destroy mode. Pick -- Alabama
     LSU at Texas A&M -3.0 -- I have gut feeling the Aggies are going to give the Bayou Bengals a serious case of post-Thanksgiving heartburn. Pick -- Texas A&M
     Notre Dame at Southern Cal +11.0 -- Notre Dame finishes an unbeaten regular season and raps up a spot in the College Football Playoff by sticking a final sword in Southern Cal's dreadful season. Pick -- Notre Dame

For The Week -- 5-4
For The Season -- 52-68-1


Friday, November 16, 2018

Cupcake Saturday Is Upon Us

    It is called Cupcake Saturday in the Southeastern Conference, where it just means more.
    Several SEC teams schedule punching bags on the Saturday before Thanksgiving so they can get loosened up for the showdown rivalries on the final Saturday of the regular season. On paper, it looks as if drama will be severely lacking this Saturday.
    Last week was the second winning week in a row at 6-4. Hey, you have to celebrate the little successes.
    As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
    Let's get to it.
    Virginia at Georgia Tech -6 -- The Yellow Jackets are surging at the right time. Tech started 1-3 but has battled back to become bowl eligible. Virginia is still in the conversation for the Coastal Division title. But the Jackets will end the Cavalier title dreams on The Flats. Pick -- Georgia Tech
    West Virginia at Oklahoma State +4.5 -- Dangerous game for the Mountaineers. Expect a shootout in Stillwater. I will take the Pokes and the points. Pick -- Oklahoma State
     Massachusetts at Georgia -41.0 -- Seriously? That's a massive spread. Too big not to take. Pick -- Massachusetts
     Duke at Clemson -28.5 -- Duke quarterback Daniel Jones had almost 600 yards of total offense in last week's victory over North Carolina, Duke's third straight against the Tar Heels. I think he will give the Tigers some problems because he is an accurate thrower and a good runner. But I have confidence the Tigers will figure it out. Clemson has been covering huge spreads for the past month. Let's see if they can do it again. Pick -- Clemson
     Pittsburgh at Wake Forest +6.5 -- If Pitt wins, it clinches the Coastal Division title to earn a date against Clemson in Charlotte for the ACC title on Dec. 1. Wake pulled off a major surprise in its last outing by rallying late to beat N.C. State in Raleigh. This is a battle of contrasting styles -- Wake prefers to go fast, while Pitt will grind and grind. Nothing seems to come easy for Pitt. Pick -- Wake Forest.
     Northwestern at Minnesota -1 -- This is definitely a funny-looking spread. Northwestern is the champion of the Big 10 West. The Gophers need one victory to become bowl eligible. I am going to ride the Wildcats. Pick -- Northwestern
     N.C. State at Louisville +16.5 -- Reports are the firing of Bobby Petrino has lightened the mood in Louisville. The micro-managing is gone. The Cardinals still have players but can one week and an interim coach make a difference? I don't think so. Pick -- N.C. State
     Syracuse vs. Notre Dame -10.5 at Yankee Stadium -- This is the game the nation will be watching this Saturday. If the Irish go 12-0, they will go to the College Football Playoff. Fast-paced Syracuse is good enough to give the Irish a fight. And try not to laugh when you look at the Yankee-inspired uniforms the Irish will be wearing in this game. Pick -- Syracuse
     Stanford at California +2.0 -- The Game goes to The Cardinal. Pick -- Stanford
     USC at UCLA +3.5 -- Southern Cal preps for its annual showdown against Notre Dame by beating the arch-rival Bruins. Pick -- Southern Cal

Last Week -- 6-4
For The Season -- 47-64-1


Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Winning Week For A Change

     Last week's 6-4 record included taking Clemson and giving almost 40 points. I guess I am finally becoming a believer in the rampaging Tigers.
     This week's selection are being published early because of a road trip to Boston. Good food, some cannolis from Mike's Pastries, and hopefully a Tiger win Saturday night will make the trip special.
     Let's get to this week's selections. As always, the picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
     South Carolina at Florida -7.0 -- South Carolina surprised me by winning a shootout at Ole Miss. I think Florida is in the tank. One Florida columnist wrote the Gators are now as bad as Florida State. That's bad. Really bad. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Pick -- South Carolina
     Oklahoma State at Oklahoma -17.5 -- The Pokes gave away the Baylor game. Penalties and discipline continue to be issues for OSU. The Sooners have dominated this series. I don't see anything changing this Saturday. Pick -- Oklahoma
     Auburn at Georgia -14.5 -- With the SEC East locked up, the Dawgs will deliver a serious beating to Auburn between the hedges. Pick -- Georgia
     Miami at Georgia Tech -4.5 -- Paul Johnson is pulling off his usual late-season run. The Yellow Jackets will add to Miami's misery. Pick -- Georgia Tech
     Clemson at Boston College +17.0 -- The Tigers are on an amazing run. They continue to cover these massive weekly point spreads. This game is a little bit dicey. Night game in Boston. Chilly conditions. The Tigers better be careful. Pick -- Clemson
     North Carolina at Duke -10.5 -- Duke quarterback Daniel Jones will be the difference. The Blue Devils will claim the Victory Bell. Pick -- Duke
     Mississippi State at Alabama -26.0 -- Bring your cowbells to Tusculoosa and come get your beating Bulldogs. Pick -- Alabama
     Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh -3.0 -- The Panthers can get one step closer to the ACC Coastal Division title with a victory over the struggling Hokies. Pick -- Pittsburgh
     Texas at Texas Tech +1 -- After dropping two games by a total of four points, the Longhorns travel to the plains of west Texas. Expect a shootout in Lubbock. Pick -- Texas Tech
     Florida State at Notre Dame -18.0 -- This my friends is known as a freaking layup. I had to give myself one easy one. Pick -- Notre Dame

Last Week -- 6-4
For The Season -- 41-60-1

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Always Remember November

     At this point, it is time to use the immortal words of a South Carolina fan -- Wait 'Til Next Year!
    The season-long ugliness continues for this blog. A record of 3-7 last week dropped the overall record to 21 games under .500.
     Clemson has moved past sitting on two touchdown leads and suddenly has become the ACC version of Alabama. The Tigers have totally abused three straight conference opponents. Louisville is next on the chopping block. At 2-6, the Cardinals look like good cannon fodder.
     Georgia, fresh off its victory over Florida in their annual blood letting in Jacksonville, heads north to Bluegrass Country to face a surprising Kentucky team for the SEC East title. The media is trying to build drama for the game, but I don't think the Dawgs will have a problem with the upstart Cats.
     All eyes will be on the Bayou Saturday night as LSU tries to throw a serious monkey wrench in the national picture by upsetting No. 1 Alabama. How will the Tide react if the game is still on the line in the fourth quarter?
     As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only. At this point, I hope you have laughed hard enough to be thoroughly entertained. My role has been reduced to stimulating conversation on a weekly basis.
    I don't know who "They" is, but they say they always remember November. Let's see if we can get the final month off to a good start.
     Louisville at Clemson -38.5 -- The Tigers have hit another gear. The performance against Florida State was stunning. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence looks comfortable, but we still have to remember he is a true freshman. In the last month, Clemson has started covering massive spreads. But this spread is huge. Here is something to think about. The last time Louisville came to Clemson the Cardinals were a two-point favorite. Talk about a wild swing. I have missed on Clemson all year. So, I am going to join the party and pick the Tigers to roll. Pick -- Clemson
     Oklahoma State at Baylor +7.5 -- The Cowboys rose up and knocked off Texas at home last week. Will that victory over the Longhorns salvage the Pokes' season? Pick -- Oklahoma State
     South Carolina at Ole Miss Pick -- Most experts expect a shootout. I don't think the Gamecocks can win a shootout against the Rebels. Pick -- Ole Miss
     Georgia Tech at North Carolina +6.0 -- In their last outing, the Jackets ran all over Virginia Tech to keep their bowl hopes alive. North Carolina continues to find interesting ways to lose close games. The clock is ticking on Larry Fedora. This is the type of game the Jackets usually mess up. But I don't think Tech will trip up against the Heels. Pick -- Georgia Tech
     Georgia at Kentucky +9.0 -- The media is trying to sell us on a showdown in Lexington. I don't see it. I think the Dawgs roll. Pick -- Georgia
     West Virginia at Texas -2.0 -- Texas is coming off an emotional loss to Okie State. West Virginia is getting two points. Give me the Mountaineers. Pick -- West Virginia
     Florida State at N.C. State -9.0 -- Florida State is a massive train wreck and a 10-car pileup. Pick -- N.C. State
     Penn State at Michigan -10.5 -- The Nittany Lions journey to the Big House and I don't think they will survive. Pick -- Michigan
     Boston College at Virginia Tech +2.0 -- This is a big game for the Eagles to stay alive in the Atlantic Division race. Clemson comes to BC next week, and for that game to mean something, the Eagles need a win in Blacksburg. This has been one of Bud Foster's worst seasons as defensive coordinator at Virginia Tech. The Hokie defensive unit has been an empty shell most of the season. Boston College running back AJ Dillon is a 250-pound truck. All signs point to the Eagles, but I'm going to take the Hokies. Pick -- Virginia Tech
     Alabama at LSU -14.5 -- Wow. An Alabama point spread under 30. LSU is capable, but until somebody makes the Tide sweat in the second half, you have to keep picking Bama. Pick -- Alabama

     Last Week -- 3-7
     For The Season -- 35-56-1