Because of a week-long road trip to the place in the desert where they have large hotels and cheap buffets, I am going to post this week's picks early. I don't return with my empty wallet until late Friday night, so I decided to go ahead and get the picks done Sunday night.
Last week the record was one game under .500 with several bad misses, including LSU finally beating Alabama. Yes, Virginia, I finally believe in LSU. The season record is now eight games over .500 with three weeks remaining in the regular season.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Wake Forest at Clemson -32.0 -- With the Atlantic Division title in hand, the Tigers will continue their dominating ways. I am finally beginning to believe Clemson can cover 30-point spreads on a weekly basis. Pick -- Clemson
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech +5.5 -- Both of these teams have made improvements as the season has progressed, but Virginia Tech's improvement has showed up in the win column. Pick -- Virginia Tech
Georgia at Auburn +3.0 -- Both of these teams have mean nasty defenses and pedestrian offenses. Upset Special Of The Week. Pick -- Auburn
South Carolina at Texas A&M -10.0 -- The Gamecocks got a hold of some bad Appalachian moonshine last week. The drying out process in east Texas will not be pleasant. Pick -- Texas A&M
Navy at Notre Dame -11.0 -- The Irish are still trying to reach a New Year's Six bowl. The Navy ship is getting ready to take on water. Pick -- Notre Dame
Louisville at N.C. State +4.0 -- Louisville's positive momentum got mutilated in Miami last week. Injuries and youth have N.C. State's season circling the drain. Pick -- Louisville
Michigan State at Michigan -12.0 -- Michigan continues rolling on its way to the showdown with the Luckeyes at the end of the month. Pick -- Michigan
Texas at Iowa State -7.0 -- The Longhorns are definitely not back. Pick -- Iowa State
Minnesota at Iowa -2.0 -- Can the Golden Gophers validate their Penn State victory? Nope. Pick -- Iowa
Oklahoma at Baylor +9.5 -- Baylor's unbeaten season comes to a bitter end. Pick -- Oklahoma
Last Week -- 4-6
For The Season -- 59-51
Sunday, November 10, 2019
Thursday, November 7, 2019
Game Of The Century On Tap, Clemson Fans Need Chill Pills
Finally, we have something to talk about and two games of national interest.
The first CFP poll came out last Tuesday -- 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Alabama, 4. Penn State -- with Clemson and Georgia coming in at No. 5 and No. 6.
Clemson fans have been howling all week, but they all just need to take a chill pill. This poll is just a starting point. As I have said for several weeks, undefeated Clemson will not be left out of the playoffs, but one loss will probably send the Tigers to a regular bowl game. The Tigers must keep their paws on the gas.
This week has the latest Game of the Century -- LSU at Alabama. The SEC is hoping for a close game to keep alive hopes of two teams in the playoff. I believe a blowout either way will serious damage to the playoff hopes of the loser.
The Big 10 also has a big game this week -- Penn State at unbeaten Minnesota. Most observers believe the Nittany Lions will survive, but the Golden Gophers will be juiced and ready to go.
Clemson begins its march to the CFP Top Four in Raleigh against an N.C. State team that has been defenseless. The Wolfpack has lost more than a dozen starters to injury and have yet to settle on a quarterback. But State will give Clemson its best shot. If the Tigers don't take the Pack seriously, there could be trouble.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Georgia Tech at Virginia -16.0 -- The visiting Yellow Jackets don't have enough offense to keep up with Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins, who put on a real show in last week's key victory at North Carolina. The Cavaliers get one step closer to the Coastal title. Pick -- Virginia
Missouri at Georgia -17.0 -- Most amazing stat to date -- Georgia has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. That is unheard of in today's college football. Pick -- Georgia
Appalachian State at South Carolina -6.5 -- The trendy pick is to take App State, but I am going to go against the trend. Pick -- South Carolina
Clemson at N.C. State +32 -- I am guessing Clemson leads the country in point spreads of +25 or more this season. It's homecoming and a Red Out in Raleigh. Clemson has struggled at Carter-Finley in the past. All of the talk this week has been about an angry Clemson blowing the doors off State. Once again, I think Clemson will win, but the spread is just too high. Pick -- N.C. State
Florida State at Boston College -2.5 -- Lock of the Week. BC has run all over everybody but Clemson. The Seminoles minus fired head coach Willie Taggart will get boat raced out of Chestnut Hill. Pick -- Boston College
Penn State at Minnesota +7.0 -- Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck has called this the biggest game in the 10-year history of Minnesota's on-campus TCF Bank Stadium. Can Penn State handle the pressure? Can Penn State deal with the massive Gophers' offensive line? Pick -- Minnesota
Louisville at Miami (Fla.) -6.5 -- Louisville is the ACC's best feel good story this season. The Cardinals were pure garbage last season. But Scott Satterfield has made Louisville respectable in a short amount of time. Miami has been all over the board this season, but I like the Hurricanes at home. Pick -- Miami
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech +2.5 -- This will be a tough test for the fast-paced Demon Deacons, but I believe Wake has too much offense for Virginia Tech. Pick -- Wake Forest
LSU at Alabama -6.5 -- Finally, Alabama plays somebody. LSU has victories over Texas, Florida, and Auburn. The major question before this game surrounds Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He injured an ankle in the Tennessee game and had surgery to stabilize the ankle. Alabama head coach Nick Saban says his star quarterback will play. Roll Tide Roll. Pick -- Alabama
Notre Dame at Duke -7.5 -- Duke is another tough team to figure out. One week, the Blue Devils are way up. The next week, they are MIA. This one boils down to talent. The Fighting Irish have simply more players. Pick -- Notre Dame
Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 55-45
The first CFP poll came out last Tuesday -- 1. Ohio State, 2. LSU, 3. Alabama, 4. Penn State -- with Clemson and Georgia coming in at No. 5 and No. 6.
Clemson fans have been howling all week, but they all just need to take a chill pill. This poll is just a starting point. As I have said for several weeks, undefeated Clemson will not be left out of the playoffs, but one loss will probably send the Tigers to a regular bowl game. The Tigers must keep their paws on the gas.
This week has the latest Game of the Century -- LSU at Alabama. The SEC is hoping for a close game to keep alive hopes of two teams in the playoff. I believe a blowout either way will serious damage to the playoff hopes of the loser.
The Big 10 also has a big game this week -- Penn State at unbeaten Minnesota. Most observers believe the Nittany Lions will survive, but the Golden Gophers will be juiced and ready to go.
Clemson begins its march to the CFP Top Four in Raleigh against an N.C. State team that has been defenseless. The Wolfpack has lost more than a dozen starters to injury and have yet to settle on a quarterback. But State will give Clemson its best shot. If the Tigers don't take the Pack seriously, there could be trouble.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Georgia Tech at Virginia -16.0 -- The visiting Yellow Jackets don't have enough offense to keep up with Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins, who put on a real show in last week's key victory at North Carolina. The Cavaliers get one step closer to the Coastal title. Pick -- Virginia
Missouri at Georgia -17.0 -- Most amazing stat to date -- Georgia has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. That is unheard of in today's college football. Pick -- Georgia
Appalachian State at South Carolina -6.5 -- The trendy pick is to take App State, but I am going to go against the trend. Pick -- South Carolina
Clemson at N.C. State +32 -- I am guessing Clemson leads the country in point spreads of +25 or more this season. It's homecoming and a Red Out in Raleigh. Clemson has struggled at Carter-Finley in the past. All of the talk this week has been about an angry Clemson blowing the doors off State. Once again, I think Clemson will win, but the spread is just too high. Pick -- N.C. State
Florida State at Boston College -2.5 -- Lock of the Week. BC has run all over everybody but Clemson. The Seminoles minus fired head coach Willie Taggart will get boat raced out of Chestnut Hill. Pick -- Boston College
Penn State at Minnesota +7.0 -- Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck has called this the biggest game in the 10-year history of Minnesota's on-campus TCF Bank Stadium. Can Penn State handle the pressure? Can Penn State deal with the massive Gophers' offensive line? Pick -- Minnesota
Louisville at Miami (Fla.) -6.5 -- Louisville is the ACC's best feel good story this season. The Cardinals were pure garbage last season. But Scott Satterfield has made Louisville respectable in a short amount of time. Miami has been all over the board this season, but I like the Hurricanes at home. Pick -- Miami
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech +2.5 -- This will be a tough test for the fast-paced Demon Deacons, but I believe Wake has too much offense for Virginia Tech. Pick -- Wake Forest
LSU at Alabama -6.5 -- Finally, Alabama plays somebody. LSU has victories over Texas, Florida, and Auburn. The major question before this game surrounds Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He injured an ankle in the Tennessee game and had surgery to stabilize the ankle. Alabama head coach Nick Saban says his star quarterback will play. Roll Tide Roll. Pick -- Alabama
Notre Dame at Duke -7.5 -- Duke is another tough team to figure out. One week, the Blue Devils are way up. The next week, they are MIA. This one boils down to talent. The Fighting Irish have simply more players. Pick -- Notre Dame
Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 55-45
Thursday, October 31, 2019
They Always Remember November
Two months down in college football, one month to go. And a lot to be decided.
There are not many big games this week. The first Saturday in November is a deep breath before we head to the finish line.
The biggest news last week was Oklahoma being knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens when its defense refused to show up against Kansas State.
The first real poll -- the College Football Playoff Poll -- comes out Tuesday night. My prediction for the first poll -- 1. LSU, 2. Ohio State, 3. Alabama, 4. Clemson. LSU's victory over Texas is starting to fade because the Longhorns are fading. Ohio State is the media darling, but the Luckeyes have some serious tests remaining. Alabama is missing Tua, which means the Tide is in trouble if Tua can't play. Clemson has better numbers than the media wants to admit. Clemson is as good or better than anybody in the country. Anybody. Clemson's problem is the national perception of the ACC. But as long as the Tigers continue to win, they will be fine.
With Oklahoma's loss, the SEC has cranked up the PR machine and started lobbying heavily for two spots in the CFP. This is the way I can see the SEC just getting one team. Florida beats Georgia. LSU beats Alabama. Auburn beats Alabama. LSU beats Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
The Big 10 still has three unbeatens -- Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota. I give Ohio State the best chance to finish the season undefeated. Minnesota is a fraud. Penn State will vomit in its shoes when the time comes.
If Clemson is 13-0, the Tigers will be in the playoff. There is one month to play, but I do believe this is the year Clemson cannot afford to lose a game. A loss to South Carolina or a loss to North Carolina (if the Heels get there) in the ACC Championship Game, I believe would keep the Tigers out of the playoff.
I am not going to waste time picking the Clemson-Wofford game. The best thing about Saturday at Clemson is Military Appreciation Day. Nobody does Military Appreciation Day like Clemson.
Last week's record was a winning 6-4 to move the season record to 10 games over .500.
Here are this week's selections. All picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Georgia vs. Florida +6.5 -- This game is and always will be the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Florida head coach Dan Mullen has stoked the rivalry with shots at the Dawgs. The loser is out of the CFP. On paper, this game boils down to the defenses. Both offenses have been ordinary. The Dawgs will go as far as Jake Fromm takes them. Pick -- Florida
TCU at Oklahoma State -3.0 -- The Pokes got a big victory at Iowa State last Saturday. I think they will lasso the Frogs. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech +8.0 -- Yet another match up in the zany ACC Coastal. Just when you think the Panthers are going to take control of the division, they mess it up. The eight points is tempting, but I just don't trust Tech's weak offense. Pick -- Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt at South Carolina -15.0 -- Vanderbilt is bad. South Carolina is starting to lose interest. Pick -- South Carolina
Boston College at Syracuse -3.0 -- These two teams are the two biggest disappointments in the ACC. Neither team is getting anything from its quarterback. But the Eagles have two sledge hammers are running back. I expect AJ Dillon to have a big game. Pick -- Boston College
N.C. State at Wake Forest -7.5 -- This spread is not high enough. Pick -- Wake Forest
Virginia Tech at Notre Dame -17.5 -- Notre Dame got destroyed at the Big House last week. Will the Irish get off the mat for the Hokies? I like the Irish at home. Pick -- Notre Dame
Miami (Fla.) at Florida State -3.5 -- Impossible game to predict. Both of these teams have plenty of talent. Both of these teams are wildly inconsistent. I am taking the Seminoles at home. Pick -- Florida State
Kansas State at Kansas +6.0 -- Kansas State must come back to Earth after upsetting Oklahoma last Saturday. Kansas head coach Les Miles has given the Jayhawks a pulse. Upset special. Pick -- Kansas
Virginia at North Carolina -2.5 -- Before the Virginia Tech game, I made North Carolina my pick to win the Coastal. Then the Tar Heels lost in six overtimes. But the Tar Heels are still alive in the hunt for the division title. I think the Heels take control of the Coastal Saturday night. Pick -- North Carolina
Last Week -- 6-4
For The Season -- 50-40
There are not many big games this week. The first Saturday in November is a deep breath before we head to the finish line.
The biggest news last week was Oklahoma being knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens when its defense refused to show up against Kansas State.
The first real poll -- the College Football Playoff Poll -- comes out Tuesday night. My prediction for the first poll -- 1. LSU, 2. Ohio State, 3. Alabama, 4. Clemson. LSU's victory over Texas is starting to fade because the Longhorns are fading. Ohio State is the media darling, but the Luckeyes have some serious tests remaining. Alabama is missing Tua, which means the Tide is in trouble if Tua can't play. Clemson has better numbers than the media wants to admit. Clemson is as good or better than anybody in the country. Anybody. Clemson's problem is the national perception of the ACC. But as long as the Tigers continue to win, they will be fine.
With Oklahoma's loss, the SEC has cranked up the PR machine and started lobbying heavily for two spots in the CFP. This is the way I can see the SEC just getting one team. Florida beats Georgia. LSU beats Alabama. Auburn beats Alabama. LSU beats Florida in the SEC Championship Game.
The Big 10 still has three unbeatens -- Ohio State, Penn State, and Minnesota. I give Ohio State the best chance to finish the season undefeated. Minnesota is a fraud. Penn State will vomit in its shoes when the time comes.
If Clemson is 13-0, the Tigers will be in the playoff. There is one month to play, but I do believe this is the year Clemson cannot afford to lose a game. A loss to South Carolina or a loss to North Carolina (if the Heels get there) in the ACC Championship Game, I believe would keep the Tigers out of the playoff.
I am not going to waste time picking the Clemson-Wofford game. The best thing about Saturday at Clemson is Military Appreciation Day. Nobody does Military Appreciation Day like Clemson.
Last week's record was a winning 6-4 to move the season record to 10 games over .500.
Here are this week's selections. All picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Georgia vs. Florida +6.5 -- This game is and always will be the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. Florida head coach Dan Mullen has stoked the rivalry with shots at the Dawgs. The loser is out of the CFP. On paper, this game boils down to the defenses. Both offenses have been ordinary. The Dawgs will go as far as Jake Fromm takes them. Pick -- Florida
TCU at Oklahoma State -3.0 -- The Pokes got a big victory at Iowa State last Saturday. I think they will lasso the Frogs. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech +8.0 -- Yet another match up in the zany ACC Coastal. Just when you think the Panthers are going to take control of the division, they mess it up. The eight points is tempting, but I just don't trust Tech's weak offense. Pick -- Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt at South Carolina -15.0 -- Vanderbilt is bad. South Carolina is starting to lose interest. Pick -- South Carolina
Boston College at Syracuse -3.0 -- These two teams are the two biggest disappointments in the ACC. Neither team is getting anything from its quarterback. But the Eagles have two sledge hammers are running back. I expect AJ Dillon to have a big game. Pick -- Boston College
N.C. State at Wake Forest -7.5 -- This spread is not high enough. Pick -- Wake Forest
Virginia Tech at Notre Dame -17.5 -- Notre Dame got destroyed at the Big House last week. Will the Irish get off the mat for the Hokies? I like the Irish at home. Pick -- Notre Dame
Miami (Fla.) at Florida State -3.5 -- Impossible game to predict. Both of these teams have plenty of talent. Both of these teams are wildly inconsistent. I am taking the Seminoles at home. Pick -- Florida State
Kansas State at Kansas +6.0 -- Kansas State must come back to Earth after upsetting Oklahoma last Saturday. Kansas head coach Les Miles has given the Jayhawks a pulse. Upset special. Pick -- Kansas
Virginia at North Carolina -2.5 -- Before the Virginia Tech game, I made North Carolina my pick to win the Coastal. Then the Tar Heels lost in six overtimes. But the Tar Heels are still alive in the hunt for the division title. I think the Heels take control of the Coastal Saturday night. Pick -- North Carolina
Last Week -- 6-4
For The Season -- 50-40
Friday, October 25, 2019
It's Official. I'm In A Slump.
There is no sugar coating last week. It was the worst week of the season.
After getting off to a hot start, I have thrown a rod and blown two tires. The picking machine is in the ditch.
That's why I have tagged this blog -- Fearless Football Forecasting Without A Net. Some radio pickers go back and revise their lousy picks and make excuses. My lousy picks stay on the blog for all to see.
Let's see if we can't get this thing out of the ditch and going back to the plus side of .500.
Another week, another drop in the AP poll for Clemson. No surprise. The national media is rooting hard against Clemson-Alabama No. 5 and will do anything they can to try and pick apart the Tigers. There now is no doubt Clemson is being held to a higher standard. But it does not matter. The only poll that matters is the College Football Playoff poll, which comes out in less than two weeks. As long as Clemson's defense continues to play lights out, the Tigers will be in either Atlanta or Phoenix on Dec. 28.
South Carolina has not been able to capitalize on its massive upset victory in Athens. SEC officials helped Florida escape Williams-Brice with a victory, and then the Gamecocks got a slap on the wrist from the NCAA. Don't laugh or wag your finger at the Gamecocks. It can happen to anybody. South Carolina admitted the mistake, the NCAA handed out the punishment, so we can all move on down the line. This week, South Carolina travels to Tennessee. This looks like a classic letdown game.
Georgia continues to disappoint. There seems to be something major missing in Athens. The talking heads trying to take apart Clemson's offense should spend more time on looking at Georgia's lack of offensive production. Georgia's offense is stuck in neutral and lacks any type of imagination. But even with a lack of imagination, the Bulldogs have the offensive line and running backs to pound the ball. The meeting with Florida next week will decide who wins the SEC East.
As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State -10.5 -- Pokes might pull this one out, but the spread is too high. Pick -- Iowa State
South Carolina at Tennessee +4.0 -- In this battle for survival, I am going to take the Vols. Pick -- Tennessee
Boston College at Clemson +34.0 -- This game will be played in a phone booth. Boston College has two sledge hammers at running back. Last week, the Eagles rushed for more than 400 yards against N.C. State. State entered the BC game allowing just 66 yards per game on the ground. Add in the possibility of rain and I believe the spread is just too high. Pick -- Boston College
Wisconsin at Ohio State -14.5 -- Ohio State finally plays a team with a pulse, but the result will be the same. Pick -- Ohio State
Miami (Fla.) at Pittsburgh -5.5 -- Pittsburgh has now established itself as the favorite in the Coastal Division. Pick -- Pittsburgh
Virginia at Louisville +3.5 -- If the season ended today, Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield would be the ACC Coach of the Year. The Cardinals are playing with passion every Saturday. Virginia laid an egg in Miami. Can the Hoos win a road game? Pick -- Louisville
Auburn at LSU -10.5 -- I think LSU will dominate this game start to finish. Pick -- LSU
Duke at North Carolina -3.5 -- Can anybody figure out Duke? The Blue Devils are the most up and down team in the ACC. I think this will be a down week. Pick -- North Carolina
Notre Dame at Michigan Pick'em -- Since 2012, Michigan is 1-14 against Top 10 teams. I just have a feeling. I hope it is not something I ate. Pick -- Michigan
Penn State at Michigan State +6.5 -- Be careful Penn State. Be very careful. Pick -- Penn State
Last Week -- 2-8
For The Season -- 44-36
After getting off to a hot start, I have thrown a rod and blown two tires. The picking machine is in the ditch.
That's why I have tagged this blog -- Fearless Football Forecasting Without A Net. Some radio pickers go back and revise their lousy picks and make excuses. My lousy picks stay on the blog for all to see.
Let's see if we can't get this thing out of the ditch and going back to the plus side of .500.
Another week, another drop in the AP poll for Clemson. No surprise. The national media is rooting hard against Clemson-Alabama No. 5 and will do anything they can to try and pick apart the Tigers. There now is no doubt Clemson is being held to a higher standard. But it does not matter. The only poll that matters is the College Football Playoff poll, which comes out in less than two weeks. As long as Clemson's defense continues to play lights out, the Tigers will be in either Atlanta or Phoenix on Dec. 28.
South Carolina has not been able to capitalize on its massive upset victory in Athens. SEC officials helped Florida escape Williams-Brice with a victory, and then the Gamecocks got a slap on the wrist from the NCAA. Don't laugh or wag your finger at the Gamecocks. It can happen to anybody. South Carolina admitted the mistake, the NCAA handed out the punishment, so we can all move on down the line. This week, South Carolina travels to Tennessee. This looks like a classic letdown game.
Georgia continues to disappoint. There seems to be something major missing in Athens. The talking heads trying to take apart Clemson's offense should spend more time on looking at Georgia's lack of offensive production. Georgia's offense is stuck in neutral and lacks any type of imagination. But even with a lack of imagination, the Bulldogs have the offensive line and running backs to pound the ball. The meeting with Florida next week will decide who wins the SEC East.
As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State -10.5 -- Pokes might pull this one out, but the spread is too high. Pick -- Iowa State
South Carolina at Tennessee +4.0 -- In this battle for survival, I am going to take the Vols. Pick -- Tennessee
Boston College at Clemson +34.0 -- This game will be played in a phone booth. Boston College has two sledge hammers at running back. Last week, the Eagles rushed for more than 400 yards against N.C. State. State entered the BC game allowing just 66 yards per game on the ground. Add in the possibility of rain and I believe the spread is just too high. Pick -- Boston College
Wisconsin at Ohio State -14.5 -- Ohio State finally plays a team with a pulse, but the result will be the same. Pick -- Ohio State
Miami (Fla.) at Pittsburgh -5.5 -- Pittsburgh has now established itself as the favorite in the Coastal Division. Pick -- Pittsburgh
Virginia at Louisville +3.5 -- If the season ended today, Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield would be the ACC Coach of the Year. The Cardinals are playing with passion every Saturday. Virginia laid an egg in Miami. Can the Hoos win a road game? Pick -- Louisville
Auburn at LSU -10.5 -- I think LSU will dominate this game start to finish. Pick -- LSU
Duke at North Carolina -3.5 -- Can anybody figure out Duke? The Blue Devils are the most up and down team in the ACC. I think this will be a down week. Pick -- North Carolina
Notre Dame at Michigan Pick'em -- Since 2012, Michigan is 1-14 against Top 10 teams. I just have a feeling. I hope it is not something I ate. Pick -- Michigan
Penn State at Michigan State +6.5 -- Be careful Penn State. Be very careful. Pick -- Penn State
Last Week -- 2-8
For The Season -- 44-36
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Slide From Greatness Continues With Sub .500 Effort
Two weeks ago, the record for the week was 9-1.
But that week is now long forgotten. Like Hillary Clinton's e-mails. The record for the past two weeks is 9-11. Last week's worksheet was a pathetic 4-6.
The big misses last week were Clemson, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest. I thought Florida State was getting better. I was wrong. I thought Notre Dame could easily handle mediocre Southern Cal at home. I was wrong. I thought Wake Forest would stay undefeated. I was wrong.
Clemson has a test on the road against drastically improved Louisville. The Cardinals were dead in the water when they came to Death Valley last season and gave up 77. New head coach Scott Satterfield is changing the culture rapidly.
South Carolina pulled the surprise of the season so far against Georgia in Athens last week. The Gamecocks did it with defense. Now here comes Florida fresh off losing a showdown to LSU. Will the Gators be suffering a Bayou hangover?
As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Here are this week's selections.
Friday
Pittsburgh at Syracuse +3.5 -- The heat will be on in the Carrier Dome. Will the Panthers wilt? I don't think so. Pick -- Pittsburgh
Saturday
Clemson at Louisville +24.0 -- Clemson spreads have been in the three-touchdown range every week. Louisville can move the ball and score but it is still struggling to find some defense. This looks like a shootout early, but I think the Tigers will find a way to pull away. Pick -- Clemson
Georgia Tech at Miami (Fla.) +18.0 -- Georgia Tech sucks. That's all you need to know. Pick -- Miami
Florida at South Carolina +5.5 -- This is an interesting match up. Last week, previously unbeaten Florida lost by two touchdowns to LSU in Baton Rouge. On the other end of the spectrum, South Carolina pulled off the biggest victory of the Will Muschamp era by upsetting Georgia in Athens. Can Florida bounce back? Can South Carolina handle success? Tough call. Pick -- South Carolina
Baylor at Oklahoma State -3.5 -- Baylor can't win in Stillwater. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Kentucky at Georgia -24.5 -- Heavy rain is in the forecast for Athens Saturday night. Kentucky is using its third quarterback of the season -- converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden. Bowden had some success in the victory over Arkansas -- 196 rushing yards and two touchdowns and 79 passing yards and one touchdown. Bowden's run-first mentality on RPOs will be a good fit for the weather. But I think Georgia will come out and make a point. Pick -- Georgia
N.C. State at Boston College +3.5 -- Both teams have quarterback issues. Boston College's quarterback issues are worse. Pick -- N.C. State
Duke at Virginia -3.5 -- Virginia got ambushed in Miami and has lost its best defender Bryce Hall for the season to an ankle injury. Duke quarterback Quentin Harris thrown just one touchdown pass in the last two games. Tough to pick against Virginia at home, but the Wahoos are having trouble scoring. Pick -- Duke
North Carolina at Virginia Tech +3.5 -- I think North Carolina is the best overall team in the Coastal, and the Tar Heels are my pick to win the Coastal. Coaching matters. And the Tar Heels are getting better coaching than the Hokies. Pick -- North Carolina
Michigan at Penn State -8.5 -- The Nittany Lions will roll the Wolverines. Pick -- Penn State
Last Week -- 4-6
For The Season -- 42-28
But that week is now long forgotten. Like Hillary Clinton's e-mails. The record for the past two weeks is 9-11. Last week's worksheet was a pathetic 4-6.
The big misses last week were Clemson, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest. I thought Florida State was getting better. I was wrong. I thought Notre Dame could easily handle mediocre Southern Cal at home. I was wrong. I thought Wake Forest would stay undefeated. I was wrong.
Clemson has a test on the road against drastically improved Louisville. The Cardinals were dead in the water when they came to Death Valley last season and gave up 77. New head coach Scott Satterfield is changing the culture rapidly.
South Carolina pulled the surprise of the season so far against Georgia in Athens last week. The Gamecocks did it with defense. Now here comes Florida fresh off losing a showdown to LSU. Will the Gators be suffering a Bayou hangover?
As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Here are this week's selections.
Friday
Pittsburgh at Syracuse +3.5 -- The heat will be on in the Carrier Dome. Will the Panthers wilt? I don't think so. Pick -- Pittsburgh
Saturday
Clemson at Louisville +24.0 -- Clemson spreads have been in the three-touchdown range every week. Louisville can move the ball and score but it is still struggling to find some defense. This looks like a shootout early, but I think the Tigers will find a way to pull away. Pick -- Clemson
Georgia Tech at Miami (Fla.) +18.0 -- Georgia Tech sucks. That's all you need to know. Pick -- Miami
Florida at South Carolina +5.5 -- This is an interesting match up. Last week, previously unbeaten Florida lost by two touchdowns to LSU in Baton Rouge. On the other end of the spectrum, South Carolina pulled off the biggest victory of the Will Muschamp era by upsetting Georgia in Athens. Can Florida bounce back? Can South Carolina handle success? Tough call. Pick -- South Carolina
Baylor at Oklahoma State -3.5 -- Baylor can't win in Stillwater. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Kentucky at Georgia -24.5 -- Heavy rain is in the forecast for Athens Saturday night. Kentucky is using its third quarterback of the season -- converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden. Bowden had some success in the victory over Arkansas -- 196 rushing yards and two touchdowns and 79 passing yards and one touchdown. Bowden's run-first mentality on RPOs will be a good fit for the weather. But I think Georgia will come out and make a point. Pick -- Georgia
N.C. State at Boston College +3.5 -- Both teams have quarterback issues. Boston College's quarterback issues are worse. Pick -- N.C. State
Duke at Virginia -3.5 -- Virginia got ambushed in Miami and has lost its best defender Bryce Hall for the season to an ankle injury. Duke quarterback Quentin Harris thrown just one touchdown pass in the last two games. Tough to pick against Virginia at home, but the Wahoos are having trouble scoring. Pick -- Duke
North Carolina at Virginia Tech +3.5 -- I think North Carolina is the best overall team in the Coastal, and the Tar Heels are my pick to win the Coastal. Coaching matters. And the Tar Heels are getting better coaching than the Hokies. Pick -- North Carolina
Michigan at Penn State -8.5 -- The Nittany Lions will roll the Wolverines. Pick -- Penn State
Last Week -- 4-6
For The Season -- 42-28
Thursday, October 10, 2019
Tigers Back In Action Against Improving Seminoles
After a stellar week, there was a serious move down to mediocrity last week.
A late touchdown by Pittsburgh at Duke wiped out the opportunity for a winning week. The slate was an average 5-5.
There are some big time tilts this week. The Red River Shootout in Dallas and undefeated Florida at undefeated LSU are the two highlight games.
Clemson returns home to face improving Florida State. The Seminoles have the athletes to cause major problems. If the Tigers are going to rout the Seminoles for the second straight year, they will have to slow down FSU running back Cam Akers is one of the best in the country.
As always, the picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Friday
Virginia at Miami -2.0 -- Miami gagged against struggling Virginia Tech last week.Virginia comes to south Florida trying to recover from getting mashed in the second half at Notre Dame. Quarterback Bryce Perkins makes the Virginia offense go. Give me those points. Pick -- Virginia
Saturday
South Carolina at Georgia -24.5 -- The Gamecocks are not ready for what they will see Saturday in Athens. Let the big Dawg eat. Pick -- Georgia
Georgia Tech at Duke -17.5 -- Even when Georgia Tech was good, Duke was a pain for the Yellow Jackets. Blue Devils bounce back. Pick -- Duke
Florida State at Clemson -27.0 -- Last year, Clemson turned Doak Campbell Stadium into a library. I expect the Seminoles to put up a better fight this year. Too many points. Pick -- Florida State
Oklahoma vs. Texas +10 (Dallas) -- Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts against a thin Texas secondary. Not a good combination. Pick -- Oklahoma
Alabama at Texas A&M +17.0 -- The Aggies have not lived up to expectations. The Aggies faced No. 1 Clemson in early September. Here comes No. 1 Alabama in early October. I am afraid the Aggies will need a 13th or 14th man to have a chance. Pick -- Alabama
Nebraska at Minnesota -7.5 -- The Golden Gophers stay golden. Pick -- Minnesota
Southern Cal at Notre Dame -11.0 -- Notre Dame at home at night. Take the Irish. Pick -- Notre Dame
Louisville at Wake Forest -6.5 -- The two surprise teams of the ACC. Louisville is respectable again under head coach Scott Satterfield. Wake is still undefeated under head coach Dave Clawson. Could the Demon Deacons be undefeated when they come to Clemson on Nov. 16? It's possible. Pick -- Wake Forest
Florida at LSU -13.5 -- Florida's undefeated season comes to an end. Pick -- LSU
Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 38-22
Thursday, October 3, 2019
Almost Perfect. One Of The Best Weeks In The History Of The Cobb Blog
I had all the reasons to pick a close game in Chapel Hill. I outlined all of the reasons in last week's blog. At the last second, I lost my nerve. That second cost me a perfect week.
The Tigers stopped a pathetic attempt at two points late in the game to survive an inspired effort from the Tar Heels. Mack Brown is coaching up the Tar Heels. The Heels are much better than their record indicates.
What has been lost in all of the whining about Clemson's performance last Saturday was the work of North Carolina defensive coordinator Jay Bateman. Last year as Army's defense coordinator, Bateman designed a plan that limited high-powered Oklahoma to 24 points in Norman. His plan against Clemson was brilliant.
Clemson's biggest problem is offensive consistency. The second biggest problem is a lack of creativity. The three plays are -- sideways pass, right tackle, or go long and I will throw it to you. If the opposition is daring you to run, run. The numbers show Clemson's running backs are not getting enough touches. Personally, I think the standing around at the line of scrimmage is eroding the effectiveness of the offense. Perhaps the offense has been operating at a slower pace to try and protect a developing defense. Clemson's defense has shown it is ahead of schedule. It is time to get past Page 5 of the playbook and try and approach "Chad Speed."
The good news is Clemson gets this week off to try and fix its problems before playing host to the circus that is Florida State football.
The most interesting game of the week takes place in The Swamp where undefeated Florida plays host to undefeated Auburn. By Saturday night, we will know which one is a fraud and which one stays in the race for the SEC Championship game.
As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech +10 -- Texas Tech got drilled by Oklahoma last Saturday. This week the Red Raiders have to deal with Cowboy running back Chuba Hubbard, who ran for 296 yards in Oklahoma State's victory over Kansas State. Good luck trying to lock up Hubbard. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Iowa at Michigan -3.5 -- It is the time of year when Michigan starts developing a pulse again before losing to Ohio State at the end of November. Pick -- Michigan
North Carolina at Georgia Tech +10 -- After a fabulous effort against No. 1 Clemson, North Carolina head coach Mack Brown has been complaining about his team's practices this week. In the business, that's known as sandbagging. Pick -- North Carolina
Air Force at Navy +3.5 -- Give me the Navy option and the home field. Pick -- Navy
Georgia at Tennessee +25 -- After a week of dealing with the Knoxville police and a player arrest, Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt now has to deal with Georgia. Another "plus" this week -- Pruitt received the dreaded vote of confidence from UT athletic director Phil Fulmer. That usually means the end is near. Pick -- Georgia
Boston College at Louisville -6.5 -- AJ Dillon has been running well for the Eagles. BC is due a breakthrough Pick -- Boston College
Auburn at Florida +3.0 -- Defense will be the difference in this battle of unbeatens and I think Auburn's D is just a little bit better. Pick -- Auburn
Virginia Tech at Miami (Fla.) -13.5 -- Canes put several more dents in what is quickly becoming a disastrous season for the Hokies. Pick -- Miami
Michigan State at Ohio State -20.5 -- Michigan State is the first team with a pulse Ohio State has faced. Sparty might have enough defense to hang for a while, but the Buckeyes have much more offense. A lot more offense. Pick -- Ohio State
Pittsburgh at Duke -4.5 -- This series is filled with high-scoring games. The Blue Devils were impressive in Blacksburg last Friday. I think Duke will do most of the scoring at Wallace Wade Outdoor Stadium. Pick -- Duke
Last Week -- 9-1
For The Season -- 33-17
The Tigers stopped a pathetic attempt at two points late in the game to survive an inspired effort from the Tar Heels. Mack Brown is coaching up the Tar Heels. The Heels are much better than their record indicates.
What has been lost in all of the whining about Clemson's performance last Saturday was the work of North Carolina defensive coordinator Jay Bateman. Last year as Army's defense coordinator, Bateman designed a plan that limited high-powered Oklahoma to 24 points in Norman. His plan against Clemson was brilliant.
Clemson's biggest problem is offensive consistency. The second biggest problem is a lack of creativity. The three plays are -- sideways pass, right tackle, or go long and I will throw it to you. If the opposition is daring you to run, run. The numbers show Clemson's running backs are not getting enough touches. Personally, I think the standing around at the line of scrimmage is eroding the effectiveness of the offense. Perhaps the offense has been operating at a slower pace to try and protect a developing defense. Clemson's defense has shown it is ahead of schedule. It is time to get past Page 5 of the playbook and try and approach "Chad Speed."
The good news is Clemson gets this week off to try and fix its problems before playing host to the circus that is Florida State football.
The most interesting game of the week takes place in The Swamp where undefeated Florida plays host to undefeated Auburn. By Saturday night, we will know which one is a fraud and which one stays in the race for the SEC Championship game.
As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech +10 -- Texas Tech got drilled by Oklahoma last Saturday. This week the Red Raiders have to deal with Cowboy running back Chuba Hubbard, who ran for 296 yards in Oklahoma State's victory over Kansas State. Good luck trying to lock up Hubbard. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Iowa at Michigan -3.5 -- It is the time of year when Michigan starts developing a pulse again before losing to Ohio State at the end of November. Pick -- Michigan
North Carolina at Georgia Tech +10 -- After a fabulous effort against No. 1 Clemson, North Carolina head coach Mack Brown has been complaining about his team's practices this week. In the business, that's known as sandbagging. Pick -- North Carolina
Air Force at Navy +3.5 -- Give me the Navy option and the home field. Pick -- Navy
Georgia at Tennessee +25 -- After a week of dealing with the Knoxville police and a player arrest, Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt now has to deal with Georgia. Another "plus" this week -- Pruitt received the dreaded vote of confidence from UT athletic director Phil Fulmer. That usually means the end is near. Pick -- Georgia
Boston College at Louisville -6.5 -- AJ Dillon has been running well for the Eagles. BC is due a breakthrough Pick -- Boston College
Auburn at Florida +3.0 -- Defense will be the difference in this battle of unbeatens and I think Auburn's D is just a little bit better. Pick -- Auburn
Virginia Tech at Miami (Fla.) -13.5 -- Canes put several more dents in what is quickly becoming a disastrous season for the Hokies. Pick -- Miami
Michigan State at Ohio State -20.5 -- Michigan State is the first team with a pulse Ohio State has faced. Sparty might have enough defense to hang for a while, but the Buckeyes have much more offense. A lot more offense. Pick -- Ohio State
Pittsburgh at Duke -4.5 -- This series is filled with high-scoring games. The Blue Devils were impressive in Blacksburg last Friday. I think Duke will do most of the scoring at Wallace Wade Outdoor Stadium. Pick -- Duke
Last Week -- 9-1
For The Season -- 33-17
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