It's Official. I'm In A Slump.

    There is no sugar coating last week. It was the worst week of the season.
     After getting off to a hot start, I have thrown a rod and blown two tires. The picking machine is in the ditch.
     That's why I have tagged this blog -- Fearless Football Forecasting Without A Net. Some radio pickers go back and revise their lousy picks and make excuses. My lousy picks stay on the blog for all to see.
     Let's see if we can't get this thing out of the ditch and going back to the plus side of .500.
     Another week, another drop in the AP poll for Clemson. No surprise. The national media is rooting hard against Clemson-Alabama No. 5 and will do anything they can to try and pick apart the Tigers. There now is no doubt Clemson is being held to a higher standard. But it does not matter. The only poll that matters is the College Football Playoff poll, which comes out in less than two weeks. As long as Clemson's defense continues to play lights out, the Tigers will be in either Atlanta or Phoenix on Dec. 28.
     South Carolina has not been able to capitalize on its massive upset victory in Athens. SEC officials helped Florida escape Williams-Brice with a victory, and then the Gamecocks got a slap on the wrist from the NCAA. Don't laugh or wag your finger at the Gamecocks. It can happen to anybody. South Carolina admitted the mistake, the NCAA handed out the punishment, so we can all move on down the line. This week, South Carolina travels to Tennessee. This looks like a classic letdown game.
     Georgia continues to disappoint. There seems to be something major missing in Athens. The talking heads trying to take apart Clemson's offense should spend more time on looking at Georgia's lack of offensive production. Georgia's offense is stuck in neutral and lacks any type of imagination. But even with a lack of imagination, the Bulldogs have the offensive line and running backs to pound the ball. The meeting with Florida next week will decide who wins the SEC East.
     As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
    Oklahoma State at Iowa State -10.5 -- Pokes might pull this one out, but the spread is too high. Pick -- Iowa State
     South Carolina at Tennessee +4.0 -- In this battle for survival, I am going to take the Vols. Pick -- Tennessee
     Boston College at Clemson +34.0 -- This game will be played in a phone booth. Boston College has two sledge hammers at running back. Last week, the Eagles rushed for more than 400 yards against N.C. State. State entered the BC game allowing just 66 yards per game on the ground. Add in the possibility of rain and I believe the spread is just too high. Pick -- Boston College
     Wisconsin at Ohio State -14.5 -- Ohio State finally plays a team with a pulse, but the result will be the same. Pick -- Ohio State
     Miami (Fla.) at Pittsburgh -5.5 -- Pittsburgh has now established itself as the favorite in the Coastal Division. Pick -- Pittsburgh
     Virginia at Louisville +3.5 -- If the season ended today, Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield would be the ACC Coach of the Year. The Cardinals are playing with passion every Saturday. Virginia laid an egg in Miami. Can the Hoos win a road game? Pick -- Louisville
     Auburn at LSU -10.5 -- I think LSU will dominate this game start to finish. Pick -- LSU
     Duke at North Carolina -3.5 -- Can anybody figure out Duke? The Blue Devils are the most up and down team in the ACC. I think this will be a down week. Pick -- North Carolina
     Notre Dame at Michigan Pick'em -- Since 2012, Michigan is 1-14 against Top 10 teams. I just have a feeling. I hope it is not something I ate. Pick -- Michigan
     Penn State at Michigan State +6.5 -- Be careful Penn State. Be very careful. Pick -- Penn State

     Last Week -- 2-8
     For The Season -- 44-36

Slide From Greatness Continues With Sub .500 Effort

     Two weeks ago, the record for the week was 9-1.
     But that week is now long forgotten. Like Hillary Clinton's e-mails. The record for the past two weeks is 9-11. Last week's worksheet was a pathetic 4-6.
     The big misses last week were Clemson, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest. I thought Florida State was getting better. I was wrong. I thought Notre Dame could easily handle mediocre Southern Cal at home. I was wrong. I thought Wake Forest would stay undefeated. I was wrong.
     Clemson has a test on the road against drastically improved Louisville. The Cardinals were dead in the water when they came to Death Valley last season and gave up 77. New head coach Scott Satterfield is changing the culture rapidly.
     South Carolina pulled the surprise of the season so far against Georgia in Athens last week. The Gamecocks did it with defense. Now here comes Florida fresh off losing a showdown to LSU. Will the Gators be suffering a Bayou hangover?
     As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
     Here are this week's selections.
   
Friday
      Pittsburgh at Syracuse +3.5 -- The heat will be on in the Carrier Dome. Will the Panthers wilt? I don't think so. Pick -- Pittsburgh

Saturday
     Clemson at Louisville +24.0 -- Clemson spreads have been in the three-touchdown range every week. Louisville can move the ball and score but it is still struggling to find some defense. This looks like a shootout early, but I think the Tigers will find a way to pull away. Pick -- Clemson
     Georgia Tech at Miami (Fla.) +18.0 -- Georgia Tech sucks. That's all you need to know. Pick -- Miami
     Florida at South Carolina +5.5 -- This is an interesting match up. Last week, previously unbeaten Florida lost by two touchdowns to LSU in Baton Rouge. On the other end of the spectrum, South Carolina pulled off the biggest victory of the Will Muschamp era by upsetting Georgia in Athens. Can Florida bounce back? Can South Carolina handle success? Tough call. Pick -- South Carolina
     Baylor at Oklahoma State -3.5 -- Baylor can't win in Stillwater. Pick -- Oklahoma State
     Kentucky at Georgia -24.5 -- Heavy rain is in the forecast for Athens Saturday night. Kentucky is using its third quarterback of the season -- converted wide receiver Lynn Bowden. Bowden had some success in the victory over Arkansas -- 196 rushing yards and two touchdowns and 79 passing yards and one touchdown. Bowden's run-first mentality on RPOs will be a good fit for the weather. But I think Georgia will come out and make a point. Pick -- Georgia
     N.C. State at Boston College +3.5 -- Both teams have quarterback issues. Boston College's quarterback issues are worse. Pick -- N.C. State
     Duke at Virginia -3.5 -- Virginia got ambushed in Miami and has lost its best defender Bryce Hall for the season to an ankle injury. Duke quarterback Quentin Harris thrown just one touchdown pass in the last two games. Tough to pick against Virginia at home, but the Wahoos are having trouble scoring. Pick -- Duke
     North Carolina at Virginia Tech +3.5 -- I think North Carolina is the best overall team in the Coastal, and the Tar Heels are my pick to win the Coastal. Coaching matters. And the Tar Heels are getting better coaching than the Hokies. Pick -- North Carolina
     Michigan at Penn State -8.5 -- The Nittany Lions will roll the Wolverines. Pick -- Penn State

Last Week -- 4-6
For The Season -- 42-28

Tigers Back In Action Against Improving Seminoles

    After a stellar week, there was a serious move down to mediocrity last week.
    A late touchdown by Pittsburgh at Duke wiped out the opportunity for a winning week. The slate was an average 5-5.
     There are some big time tilts this week. The Red River Shootout in Dallas and undefeated Florida at undefeated LSU are the two highlight games.
     Clemson returns home to face improving Florida State. The Seminoles have the athletes to cause major problems. If the Tigers are going to rout the Seminoles for the second straight year, they will have to slow down FSU running back Cam Akers is one of the best in the country.
     As always, the picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

Friday
     Virginia at Miami -2.0 -- Miami gagged against struggling Virginia Tech last week.Virginia comes to south Florida trying to recover from getting mashed in the second half at Notre Dame. Quarterback Bryce Perkins makes the Virginia offense go. Give me those points. Pick -- Virginia

Saturday
     South Carolina at Georgia -24.5 -- The Gamecocks are not ready for what they will see Saturday in Athens. Let the big Dawg eat. Pick -- Georgia
     Georgia Tech at Duke -17.5 -- Even when Georgia Tech was good, Duke was a pain for the Yellow Jackets. Blue Devils bounce back. Pick -- Duke
     Florida State at Clemson -27.0 -- Last year, Clemson turned Doak Campbell Stadium into a library. I expect the Seminoles to put up a better fight this year. Too many points. Pick -- Florida State
     Oklahoma vs. Texas +10 (Dallas) -- Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts against a thin Texas secondary. Not a good combination. Pick -- Oklahoma
     Alabama at Texas A&M +17.0 -- The Aggies have not lived up to expectations. The Aggies faced No. 1 Clemson in early September. Here comes No. 1 Alabama in early October. I am afraid the Aggies will need a 13th or 14th man to have a chance. Pick -- Alabama
     Nebraska at Minnesota -7.5 -- The Golden Gophers stay golden. Pick -- Minnesota
     Southern Cal at Notre Dame -11.0 -- Notre Dame at home at night. Take the Irish. Pick -- Notre Dame
     Louisville at Wake Forest -6.5 -- The two surprise teams of the ACC. Louisville is respectable again under head coach Scott Satterfield. Wake is still undefeated under head coach Dave Clawson. Could the Demon Deacons be undefeated when they come to Clemson on Nov. 16? It's possible. Pick -- Wake Forest
     Florida at LSU -13.5 -- Florida's undefeated season comes to an end. Pick -- LSU

     Last Week -- 5-5
     For The Season -- 38-22

Almost Perfect. One Of The Best Weeks In The History Of The Cobb Blog

     I had all the reasons to pick a close game in Chapel Hill. I outlined all of the reasons in last week's blog. At the last second, I lost my nerve. That second cost me a perfect week.
     The Tigers stopped a pathetic attempt at two points late in the game to survive an inspired effort from the Tar Heels. Mack Brown is coaching up the Tar Heels. The Heels are much better than their record indicates.
     What has been lost in all of the whining about Clemson's performance last Saturday was the work of North Carolina defensive coordinator Jay Bateman. Last year as Army's defense coordinator, Bateman designed a plan that limited high-powered Oklahoma to 24 points in Norman. His plan against Clemson was brilliant.
     Clemson's biggest problem is offensive consistency. The second biggest problem is a lack of creativity. The three plays are -- sideways pass, right tackle, or go long and I will throw it to you. If the opposition is daring you to run, run. The numbers show Clemson's running backs are not getting enough touches. Personally, I think the standing around at the line of scrimmage is eroding the effectiveness of the offense. Perhaps the offense has been operating at a slower pace to try and protect a developing defense. Clemson's defense has shown it is ahead of schedule. It is time to get past Page 5 of the playbook and try and approach "Chad Speed."
     The good news is Clemson gets this week off to try and fix its problems before playing host to the circus that is Florida State football.
     The most interesting game of the week takes place in The Swamp where undefeated Florida plays host to undefeated Auburn. By Saturday night, we will know which one is a fraud and which one stays in the race for the SEC Championship game.
     As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

     Oklahoma State at Texas Tech +10 -- Texas Tech got drilled by Oklahoma last Saturday. This week the Red Raiders have to deal with Cowboy running back Chuba Hubbard, who ran for 296 yards in Oklahoma State's victory over Kansas State. Good luck trying to lock up Hubbard. Pick -- Oklahoma State
     Iowa at Michigan -3.5 -- It is the time of year when Michigan starts developing a pulse again before losing to Ohio State at the end of November. Pick -- Michigan
     North Carolina at Georgia Tech +10 -- After a fabulous effort against No. 1 Clemson, North Carolina head coach Mack Brown has been complaining about his team's practices this week. In the business, that's known as sandbagging. Pick -- North Carolina
     Air Force at Navy +3.5 -- Give me the Navy option and the home field. Pick -- Navy
     Georgia at Tennessee +25 -- After a week of dealing with the Knoxville police and a player arrest, Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt now has to deal with Georgia. Another "plus" this week -- Pruitt received the dreaded vote of confidence from UT athletic director Phil Fulmer. That usually means the end is near. Pick -- Georgia
     Boston College at Louisville -6.5 -- AJ Dillon has been running well for the Eagles. BC is due a breakthrough Pick -- Boston College
     Auburn at Florida +3.0 -- Defense will be the difference in this battle of unbeatens and I think Auburn's D is just a little bit better. Pick -- Auburn
     Virginia Tech at Miami (Fla.) -13.5 -- Canes put several more dents in what is quickly becoming a disastrous season for the Hokies. Pick -- Miami
     Michigan State at Ohio State -20.5 -- Michigan State is the first team with a pulse Ohio State has faced. Sparty might have enough defense to hang for a while, but the Buckeyes have much more offense. A lot more offense. Pick -- Ohio State
     Pittsburgh at Duke -4.5 -- This series is filled with high-scoring games. The Blue Devils were impressive in Blacksburg last Friday. I think Duke will do most of the scoring at Wallace Wade Outdoor Stadium. Pick -- Duke
   
     Last Week -- 9-1
     For The Season -- 33-17

Clemson Makes Rare Visit To Chapel Hill

     Last week finished on the plus side with a 6-4 mark. That makes three winning weeks in the first four of the 2019 season. The big misses last week were Georgia not dominating Notre Dame as all of the experts predicted and Pittsburgh surprising "national champion" Central Florida on a trick play.
     The most excitement in Clemson last Saturday night was a seven-minute movie shoot. Meanwhile, South Carolina continues to self destruct.
     As always, picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

Friday
     Duke at Virginia Tech -2.5 -- Duke has been more solid than Virginia Tech. The Hokies have had trouble hanging on to the football. And Virginia Tech's defense still has issues. Pick -- Duke

Saturday
     Clemson at North Carolina +27.0 -- This is just Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney's second trip to Chapel Hill as head coach. All four of North Carolina's games have followed the same script -- the Tar Heels fall behind and then rally in the fourth quarter. It sounds silly and stupid, but I still have concerns about the Clemson offense. The Tigers are swinging for the fences and not showing a lot of consistency. Yard production has been amazing but there seems to be something missing. After last week's backyard game against Charlotte where everyone played and everyone had a good time, I hope the Tigers show up and show some improvement. I have a sense this one will be tougher than expected. Pick -- Clemson
     Kentucky at South Carolina -3.0 -- Kentucky has dominated this series, but the Wildcats have serious issues at quarterback. Pick -- South Carolina
     Wake Forest at Boston College +6.5 -- The Deacons, the second-best team in the ACC, hit the road to Chestnut Hill. BC getting almost seven points at home is too good to pass up. Pick -- Boston College
     Virginia at Notre Dame -12.5 -- I want to believe in Virginia, but I just can't. The Irish gave it their all in Athens last week but came up short. I think home field will be the difference. Pick -- Notre Dame
     N.C. State at Florida State -6.5 -- Florida State seems to be getting its act together. N.C. State has played nobody. The road gets rough for the Wolfpack as the Seminoles spring an ambush. Pick -- Florida State
     Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State +16.0 -- The Mountaineers return to The Rock after beating the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill last week. Coastal Carolina also has a Power Five victory -- Kansas. App State at home is just to be a hill to climb for the Chants. Pick -- Appalachian State
     Southern Cal at Washington -10.0 -- The Trojans are pretty good at home, not so much on the road. Pick -- Washington
     Mississippi State at Auburn -11.0 -- I still think Auburn is a fraud, but the sham will continue for one more week. Pick -- Auburn
     Washington State at Utah -5.5 -- While Utah was losing yet another game to Southern Cal at the Coliseum last week, Washington State choked in the second half against a bad UCLA team to lose 67-63. Give me home field and the Ute defense. Pick -- Utah

Last Week -- 6-4
For The Season -- 24-16

Winning Streak Ends At Two Weeks

     Penn State failing to cover in its final scheduled meeting against Pitt and N.C. State and Boston College getting run over led to the first losing week of the season.
    Boston College's loss to Kansas was really shocking. Prior to beating the Eagles, the Jayhawks had lost 48 straight non-conference road games.
    After three weeks, we have learned the ACC has deteriorated beyond recognition and is worse than a five-alarm dumpster fire. Virginia and Wake Forest are now considered No. 2 and No. 3 in the league. Playing in a putrid league means Clemson better not lose a game if it hopes to return to the College Football Playoff.
     As we head to the official start of fall on Saturday, we have some games of national significance this week. Notre Dame at Georgia, Michigan at Wisconsin, and Auburn at Texas A&M all will help to start shaping the CFP picture.
     As always, picks are are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
   
     South Carolina at Missouri -9.5 -- The Gamecocks moved the ball against Alabama but still got rolled by the Tide. Haven't they seen this Kelly Bryant guy before playing for a different set of Tigers? Bryant reintroduces himself to UofSC. Pick -- Missouri
     Charlotte at Clemson -41.5 -- The Clemson spreads have been so massive that it makes it difficult not to take the points. There is great gnashing of teeth by Clemson fans because Trevor Lawrence has shown that he is not Superman. Relax. Take a deep breath. Remember the days when the Tigers were squeezing out one touchdown victories over The Citadel and Furman. It will be okay. Dabo says Charlotte could embarrass Clemson. What??? If you believe that, you also believe football parking at Clemson is cheap and readily available. Pick -- Clemson
     Oklahoma State at Texas -5.5 -- The Pokes have won five straight against Texas in Austin, but Texas is the first real team they have played this season. This Saturday, reality wears horns. Real long horns. Pick -- Texas
     Notre Dame at Georgia -14.0 -- I think this is this week's gift. The Irish have one of the worst rush defenses in the country. Georgia has a massive offensive line and a stable of running backs. Dawgs walk the Dawg on the Irish. Pick -- Georgia
     Tennessee at Florida -14.0 -- Tennessee is bad. Florida has lost its hot dog starting quarterback for the season. I think the Florida defense and home field will be the difference. Pick -- Florida
     Michigan at Wisconsin -3.5 -- Michigan gets exposed by the Wisconsin bulldozer and several clueless analysts around the country begin their annual exercise of wondering why they always think the always-disappointing Wolverines will be a factor outside of the Big 10. It happens every year. Until Michigan does something, they need to stop it. Pick -- Wisconsin
     Louisville at Florida State -6.5 -- Florida State looks like hot garbage. Is this the week the Seminoles put together a complete game? Probably not. But Louisville is still to early in the rebuilding process to win this one. Even Willie Taggart can't screw this one up. Can he? Pick -- Florida State
     Central Florida at Pittsburgh -12.0 -- Pittsburgh can't score. Central Florida can score. And score in bunches. Pick -- Central Florida
     Auburn at Texas A&M -4.0 -- Auburn, another fraud, gets exposed by the 12th Man. A&M adds to Clemson's sinking strength of schedule number. Pick -- Texas A&M
     Colorado at Arizona State -7.5 -- People laughed and laughed when Arizona State hired Herm Edwards. Edwards has the Sun Devils ranked 24th in the country. Some are still laughing, but they are laughing quietly. Here comes Colorado rumbling off the mountains into the the desert. I like the Devils in the desert heat. Pick -- Arizona State

     Last Week -- 4-6
     For The Season -- 18-12

Call Me Butter, I'm On A Roll

     The second week of the season brought another 7-3 worksheet. I was robbed of an 8-2 record because Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher managed the last six minutes of his team's 24-10 loss to Clemson as if the national championship was on the line. The Aggies' touchdown with just seconds remaining created a cover for A&M. Hmmm. Add your own conspiracy theories here.
     This week's interesting games included a non-conference ACC matchup of undefeated teams in Winston-Salem, Clemson's trip to the Loud House, and the Tide rolling into Columbia.
     I like North Carolina and Wake scheduling a non-conference game. Fans would rather see a game against an old rival instead of a game against an unnamed community college.
     As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

Friday
     North Carolina at Wake Forest -3.0 -- The Tar Heels won just two games last season. They are already 2-0 this season in the first season of the Mack Brown Reunion Tour. Most people turn up their noses when you say "Wake Forest Football," but the Deacons can play. And score. Mack gets his first loss. Pick -- Wake Forest
     Kansas at Boston College -21.0 -- The turf is artificial in Chestnut Hill, so there is nothing for Les Miles to eat. AJ Dillon will have a coming out party. Pick -- Boston College

Saturday
    Arkansas State at Georgia -33.5 -- The Dawgs roll one more tomato can around Dooley Field at Sanford Stadium before the Fighting Irish come to town. Pick -- Georgia
    Alabama at South Carolina +26.5 -- Alabama head coach Nick Saban complained about early kickoff times this week. He says the games are too hot. Roll Tired. After the game, South Carolina will have a complaint -- Why was this game was ever played? Pick -- Alabama
    Oklahoma State at Tulsa +14.5 -- No matter how many coaches or players he loses on an annual basis, Mike Gundy knows how to generate offense. The Pokes will bring plenty of weapons to Tulsa and blow away the Hurricanes. Pick -- Oklahoma State
    Clemson at Syracuse +27.5 -- Syracuse cannot be that bad. It is just not possible. The Orange got beat from pillar to post in College Park. I don't think looking ahead was a problem for Cuse. But I do think there are issues with the Orange. The Tigers suffocated Texas A&M. The Clemson offense has yet to leave the launch pad. Will this be the game? It has a been a long time since Clemson has been somebody's homecoming opponent. But with the recent history of this game, 27.5 is just too many points. Pick -- Syracuse
     Pittsburgh at Penn State -17.0 -- The 100th and final meeting between these two bitter Pennsylvania rivals for the foreseeable future will be a Nittany Lion rout. Pick -- Penn State
     N.C. State at West Virginia +6.5 -- This is N.C. State's first real test and it will be no where near a mid-term exam. The Mountaineers currently are a mess. Pick -- N.C. State
     Stanford at Central Florida -7.5 -- Stanford got stunned by Southern Cal last Saturday night. The Cardinal now travels East to face Central Florida. Before this game is finished, the Cardinal will be running for the plane. Pick -- Central Florida
     Florida at Kentucky +8.0 -- Kentucky finally snapped its lengthy losing streak against Florida last season. I just don't believe in the Gators and eight points is a tricky spread. Pick -- Kentucky

Last Week -- 7-3
For The Season -- 14-6