Finally, A Week Above .500

     Last week was a definite improvement versus the first two weeks for one reason -- it was a winning week.
     As we say in the South, Clemson "showed out" last Saturday by humiliating Louisville and Lamar Jackson. After that performance, the question has to be asked -- Are the Tigers better than they were last year?

     Last week's record was 5-4-1. The big misses were Tennessee, which violated a sacred football fundamental by allowing a Florida wide receiver Tyrie Cleveland behind the secondary on the final play, and South Carolina, which found a way to lose to Kentucky for the fourth year in a row.

     The push was Duke's 14-point impressive victory over Baylor.

     Clemson provided one of the biggest surprises of the week by dominating Louisville. The previous three games between the Tigers and Cards had gone down to the bitter end. The fourth meeting wasn't even close. The stars seem to be aligning for the Tigers, but there is a lot of ball left to be played.

     As always, the selections on the Cobb Blog are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

     Here are this week's selections:

     Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech -7.5 -- Pitt allowed Oklahoma State to score on its first seven possessions and its head coach -- Pat Narduzzi -- is a defensive guy. Paul Johnson has the triple option up and running on The Flats. The Jackets roll. Pick -- Georgia Tech

     TCU at Oklahoma State -11.0 -- Interesting early showdown in the Big 12. Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph, a native of Rock Hill, S.C., has to be considered one of the early leaders for the Heisman Trophy. TCU is beginning to look like a vintage Gary Patterson team. The spread is a little high, but I like the Pokes on their own ranch. Pick -- Oklahoma State

     Louisiana Tech at South Carolina -8.5 -- The Yardbirds did their annual early face plant last Saturday against Kentucky. Now South Carolina is faced with the return of Skip Holtz, the former coach-in-waiting, to Williams-Brice. Without Deebo Samuel and the lack of a running game, I expect the Cocks to struggle. Take the points. Pick -- Louisiana Tech

     Boston College at Clemson -34.5 -- This would be a trap game if Boston College was bringing anything to Death Valley. The Eagles got mauled at home last week by a Notre Dame team that will be lucky to finish with a winning season. The Tigers were running on all cylinders last Saturday night in Louisville. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it up. Pick -- Clemson

     Mississippi State at Georgia -5.0 -- An early-season showdown in the It-Just-Means-More SEC. Mississippi State pulled off a stunner last Saturday night by pounding LSU in Stark-Vegas. The Dawgs continue to live off of their defense and their running game. I think playing between the Hedges will be the difference. Pick -- Georgia

     N.C. State at Florida State -13.0 -- Who the hell knows about this game? What is N.C. State? Enough talent to beat just about anybody but doesn't have the ability to hold it together for any length of time. Florida State, which has played just one game this season, will trot out freshman quarterback James Blackman against the Wolfpack. FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher is confident Blackman can handle it. The Wolfpack has been tough on the Seminoles in the past. FSU has a defense but can it generate any points? Who knows? Anybody got a clue? Give me the points. Pick -- N.C. State

     Duke at North Carolina +2.5 -- Duke is better coached. North Carolina has better talent. Duke is giving points on the road. When was the last time you saw that? I have seen enough of Duke to believe in the Blue Devils in this one. Duke head coach David Cutcliffe is known as a great developer of quarterbacks, but Duke's defense is pretty good. Pick -- Duke 

     Alabama at Vanderbilt +18.5 -- Common sense tells you Vanderbilt's party is over. The Commodores are 3-0 after outlasting Kansas State last week. But here comes big bad Bama to Music City to slap Vandy back into reality. Most of America would love to see Vandy pull off the upset. But I don't think it is going to happen. Pick -- Alabama

     Michigan at Purdue +10 -- The Michigan defense is for real. The Michigan offense is not. Purdue is vastly improved. I think the Boilermakers have something cooked up for the Wolverines. Pick -- Purdue

     Florida at Kentucky +2.5 -- Kentucky is off to its first 3-0 start since 2010. But the Wildcats have lost 30 in a row, yes 30 in a row, to Florida. The Gators' offense is truly offensive. Kentucky's defensive unit is salty. I think the goal posts come down in Lexington Saturday. Pick -- Kentucky

Last Week -- 5-4-1

For The Season -- 12-17-1

Just Keep Saying To Yourself, It's Early

     We're just two weeks into the season, so it is not time to hit the panic button. Yet.
     Last week's 3-7 record against the spread dropped the season record to 7-13. Yeah, it's ugly, but there is a lot of ball left to be played.
     On the positive side, I told you last week I didn't believe the national hype on Ohio State. Oklahoma went to the Horseshoe and beat down the Buckeyes. I think there are more beatings to come for The Ohio State.
     On the negative side, I missed South Carolina again. The Gamecocks are 2-0 and probably will be 4-0 before getting tested again. I thought Penn State would cover against Pitt. It didn't. I picked Boston College at home in a pick'em against Wake Forest, but the Deacons blasted the Eagles.
     I don't know the answer, but I thought I would just throw out this observation. When was the last time Duke and Wake Forest were both double-digit favorites on the same Saturday?
     Let's move on. As always, 10 games against the spread for entertainment purposes only.
     Here are this week's selections.
     Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh -14.0 -- Last year's meeting in Stillwater was a shootout the Cowboys won in overtime. This is a much different Pitt team. The Panthers are missing a lot of their offensive pieces from a year ago. The Cowboys can still score and score a lot. Pick -- Oklahoma State
     Kentucky at South Carolina -6.0 -- The Gamecocks, off to a surprising 2-0 start, welcome Kentucky to Columbia for their 2017 home opener. Will the Gamecocks stumble? Nope. Pick -- South Carolina
     Clemson at Louisville +3.0 -- The dynamic Lamar Jackson meets a Clemson defensive unit that is allowing just 118 total yards per game. Jackson usually gets that much in the first quarter. Something has got to give. What do you do with Jackson? Do you go after him risking flushing him out of the pocket? Or do you drop back and defend and force him to throw? Clemson did a good job against Jackson in the first half last year, but he ran crazy in the second half. The unknown for this game is the Clemson offense. How many points can it produce? Can the Tigers keep the ball and keep Jackson off the field? The Tigers helped the Cardinals last year with five turnovers. That cannot happen Saturday. I am expecting another close one. I am betting the difference is the Tigers have been here before and will handle the spotlight better. Pick -- Clemson
     Baylor at Duke -14.0 -- Duke smashed a good Northwestern team last week. Baylor is a five-alarm dumpster fire. Pick -- Duke
     Notre Dame at Boston College -13.5 -- Notre Dame is a mess. Boston College is a bigger mess. Pick -- Notre Dame
    Tennessee at Florida -5.5 -- Back in the day, this was a highly anticipated game in the SEC and on the national level. But both of these teams have major issues. Florida can't score. Tennessee's defense got torched by Georgia Tech's triple option. Will the hurricane aftermath in the state of Florida have an effect on the Gators? Will Tennessee head coach Butch Jones finally win a game that means something? I don't understand the spread, so I am picking the Vols. Pick -- Tennessee
     LSU at Mississippi State +7.0 -- What is LSU? Have the Tigers solved their offensive problems? Mississippi State has beaten Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech. So what? History tells you to pick LSU. But strange things can happen in Stark-Vegas, especially early in the season. Take the points. Pick -- Mississippi State
     Kansas State at Vanderbilt +4.0 -- Kansas State, as always, is a darkhorse in the Big 12 race. This is Vandy's first major test of the season. Pick -- Kansas State
     Texas at Southern Cal -15.0 -- Texas bounced back last week after laying an opening egg against Maryland, but Southern Cal is a different type of animal. One Texas isn't ready for at this time. Fight on! Pick -- Southern Cal
     Utah State at Wake Forest -13.5 -- Utah State must really be awful. Pick -- Wake Forest

Last Week Against The Spread -- 3-7
For The Season -- 7-13

Auburn at Clemson: Will Defense Rule?

    Week One is in the books and it was not good.
     First time out against a tough slate of games, the record was 4-6.
     But that was a just a warm up. There is a lot football left.
     As always, all picks are against the spread. And picks are for entertainment purposes only.
    Week Two gets even tougher. Let's have at it.
     Auburn at Clemson -5.0 -- Clemson won a glorfied scrimmage against a feeble Kent State. Kent State threw up the white flag early and was only interested in collecting the check. Auburn beat a usually pesky Georgia Southern squad. In some ways, these two teams mirror each other -- inexperience on offense, experienced on defense. On paper, this has the makings of a defensive game with both teams throwing haymakers. I think home field will be the difference. Pick -- Clemson
     South Carolina at Missouri -2.5 -- The Gamecocks won a shootout in Charlotte by making more plays than the Wolfpack. South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley made several nice throws, but the Gamecocks still need to find a running game. Missouri dropped 72 on Missouri State. This spread looks strange. I'm taking the home field. Pick -- Missouri
     Georgia at Notre Dame -4.0 -- The Dawgs make a rare trip North to tangle with the Irish for just the second time in history. I congratulate both programs. This is a great game for college football. The only other meeting was Georgia's victory in the Sugar Bowl which clinched the 1980 national championship. Georgia has quarterback issues. Notre Dame is trying to bounce back from last seasons's 4-8 egg. There has been trash talking coming out of Athens. Big shock there. Wake up the echoes. Pick -- Notre Dame
     Louisville at North Carolina +10 -- Lamar Jackson's run at a second Heisman Trophy got off to a rocky start, but the Cardinals managed to save themselves against lowly Purdue. North Carolina took one step toward talking basketball season by losing at home to California. Louisville will have to play a much cleaner game to cover the spread. This smells like an early must win for the Heels. I expect the Heels to play with a sense of desperation. Pick -- North Carolina
     Iowa at Iowa State +2.5 -- The Cyclones are a weak sister in the Big 12. The Hawkeyes have been known to stumble. Pick -- Iowa State
     Wake Forest at Boston College Pick'em -- BC 2-0? Believe it. Pick -- BC
     Oklahoma at Ohio State -7.5 -- I just don't get the national love for Ohio State. Sure, the Buckeyes have plenty of talent, but their offense is still a mess. Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley faces his first big road game as a head coach. Sooner quarterback Baker Mayfield came back to Norman to make a run at a national title. Take the points. Pick -- Oklahoma
     Stanford at Southern Cal -6.0 -- Cardinal power versus Trojan flash. I'm going to take the power. Pick -- Stanford
     TCU at Arkansas +3.0 -- When has Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema ever won a big game? I'm waiting for your answer. Can Arkansas' ground game keep up with TCU's Big 12 offense? I'm going to take the Frogs. Pick -- TCU
     Pittsburgh at Penn State -21.0 -- Pitt beat Penn State last season, a loss that ended up costing the Nittany Lions a trip to the College Football Playoff. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Happy Valley will not be a happy place for the Panthers. Pick -- Penn State.

Last Week Against The Spread -- 4-6
2017 Season -- 4-6

Let's Get It On!

     College football is back!

     That's means it is time for the Cobb Blog to return.

     Fearless football forecasting without a net. For entertainment purposes only.

     All picks are against the spread.

     Feel free to play along at home and message me your picks.

     And away we go.

     Kent State at Clemson -39.0 -- The Tigers will start the 2017 season with a warm up. A glorified scrimmage. It will be a feel-good day at Death Valley as Clemson celebrates its 2016 national championship. The Tigers will win, but I believe Dabo Swinney will dial it down before covering. He doesn't want to put a lot on film for Auburn. Pick -- Kent State

     Maryland at Texas -18.5 -- Next up to battle the expections at Texas is Tom Herman, who brings his wide-open open from Houston. The Herman era gets off to a good start. Pick -- Texas

     N.C. State vs. South Carolina +5.0 at Charlotte -- Will Muschamp got the Gamecocks to a bowl game in Year One. The question is -- Can the Gamecocks make another step up in 2017? Pick -- South Carolina

     Michigan vs. Florida +5.0 at Arlington, Texas -- Jim Harbaugh won't release his schedule. Jim McElwain has suspended most of his roster. It didn't take long for this season to get crazy. Pick -- Michigan

     Kentucky at Southern Miss +10.5 -- Upset alert for the Wildcats. Hattiesburg can be unkind to visitors. Pick -- Southern Miss

     Appalachian State at Georgia -14.5 -- The pressure already is on Kirby Smart. Most experts are picking Georgia to win the SEC East. The Bulldogs could have picked an easier opener. The Mountaineers have a history of making things tough on big boys. But I think the Bulldogs will find a way to cover. Pick -- Georgia

     Louisville at Purdue +24.5 -- The new and improved Lamar Jackson begins the '17 season against Big 10 bottom feeder Purdue. Jackson, who crashed and burned in the final three games last season, enters the season with something to prove. The first victim of his crazy legs will be the Boilermakers. Pick -- Louisville

     Florida State vs. Alabama -7.0 at Atlanta -- This is my pick for the game of the weekend. The first of a possible three appearances for the Crimson Tide in the new Mercedes-Benz Dome this season. Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois took a real beating last season. If the Seminoles are going to stay in this game, their offensive line will have to hold up against the Tide's ultra-physical defense. I have a feeling FSU is going to be able to hang around. Pick -- Florida State

     Brigham Young at LSU -15.5 -- In my humble opinion, this spread is whack. Too many points. Take the Cougars. Pick -- BYU

     West Virginia at Virginia Tech -4.0 at Landover, Md. -- Another whack spread. The Hokies have some offensive questions. Hail to West Virginia. Pick -- West Virginia     

Miracle Needed For .500

     After a disappointing 4-7 slate last week, it is now going to take a minor miracle to reach the .500 mark in the final week of the Cobb Blog for 2016.
     The focus this week is on the conference championship games and Sunday's announcement of the CFP field.
     The debate has been furious this season. How much does the committee value conference champions? Will this be the first season we see a two-loss team make the field? Will the Big 10 put three teams in the field? This Saturday is sure to make everything as clear as mud.
     It is my opinion the CFP committee should value conference champions. It is not fair for a team that did not win its division and did not win its conference championship to sit on the sideline and wait on the other teams involved in the playoff chase to play another game.
     The answer to the debate is simple. An eight-team field would put the five conference champions and three at-large teams in the field. The CFP committee would be responsible for selecting the three at-large teams and seeding the eight-team field.
     As always, all picks are against the spread and are for entertainment purposes only.

Friday's Games
     -- Western Michigan vs. Ohio -17.0. Western Michigan puts the finishing touch on an undefeated season to take the MAC title. Pick -- Western Michigan
     -- Colorado vs. Washington -7.5. Colorado has been one of the great stories in college football this season. Washington has a lot on the line in this one. Win and the Huskies are in the CFP. Washington just has too much offense for the Buffs. Huskies pick up the Pac 12 championship and a spot in the CFP. Pick -- Washington

Saturday's Games
     -- Oklahoma State at Oklahoma -11.0. They call it Bedlam, but the rivalry has been dominated by the Sooners. I anticipate a shootout for the Big 12 crown. The spread is too high. Pick -- Oklahoma State
     -- Clemson vs. Virginia Tech +10.0. The Tigers have fooled me all year. It's a shame this game for the ACC title isn't in Charlotte, where it would be a complete sellout. Win and the Tigers are in. Lose and speculation has the Tigers headed to the Cotton Bowl. I think the Tigers will take care of business. Pick -- Clemson
     -- Temple at Navy -3.0. The Midshipmen will sink the Owls for the AAC title. Pick -- Navy
     -- Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky -10.0. The Hilltoppers will unleash their high-powered offense on the Bulldogs to win the Conference USA title. Pick -- Western Kentucky
     -- Baylor at West Virginia -17.0. Baylor interim head coach Jim Grobe, a truly nice guy, ends his career in his home state on a sour note. Pick -- West Virginia
     -- Alabama vs. Florida +24.0. Why is this game being played? The SEC has a real problem. There is nobody in the league who can challenge the Crimson Tide. Pick -- Alabama
     -- San Diego State at Wyoming +7.0. This is a rematch from a game that was played on Nov. 19. Wyoming won that meeting, 34-33 in Laramie. This one is for the Mountain West title. Can the Cowboys beat the Aztecs for the second time in three weeks? I'm taking the home field. Pick -- Wyoming
     -- Wisconsin vs. Penn State +3.0. I think Wisconsin's defense will make the difference. On Wisconsin to the Big 10 title. Pick -- Wisconsin

Last Week -- 4-7
For The Season -- 57-61-3

ACC To Dominate The SEC On Rivalry Weekend

     So far, November has not been kind to me.
     Last week's record was 4-5-1. The push was Clemson's 22-point victory against Wake Forest.
     The season record now stands at two games under .500. With two weeks remaining in the regular season, there is a need for a serious rally.
     This is rivalry week, so I have added two extra games to the picks sheet.
     We are guaranteed a shake up in the CFP rankings this week. Michigan at Ohio State will eliminate at least one of those schools from consideration for the playoffs.
     I continue to believe this will be the first time we will see a two-loss team in the playoff field. The next two weeks are going to be really interesting.
     I am looking for the ACC to totally dominate the ACC in inter-conference matchups this weekend. The SEC's best chance for a victory will be Georgia against Georgia Tech in Athens.
     I hope everybody has a wonderful and blessed Thanksgiving. We have a lot to be thankful for.
     As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.

     Friday's Games
     -- N.C. State at North Carolina -11.5. North Carolina needs this game to keep pressure on Virginia Tech in the race for the Coastal Division title. N.C. State needs this game to become bowl eligible. I think the Heels have too much offense for the Pack. Pick -- North Carolina
     -- TCU at Texas -3.0. Is this it for Charlie Strong at Texas? Can a Texas head coach survive any season that includes a loss to Kansas? Strong's players love him but will they go out and win for him and make the Horns bowl eligible? Plenty of questions for the Horns. I think Texas is going to show some pride and rise up. Pick -- Texas
     -- Washington at Washington State +6.0. Washington State got tripped up at Colorado last week. Washington still has dreams of making the CFP. Washington's playoff dream will die in Pullman. Pick -- Washington State
   
     Saturday's Games
     -- Georgia Tech at Georgia -4.5. Paul Johnson's two victories against Georgia have come in Athens. Tech's offense has been playing better. The Yellow Jackets have scored 61 points in their last two games. Georgia's offense continues to struggle. Take the the Jackets and the points. Pick -- Georgia Tech
     -- South Carolina at Clemson -24.0. The Tigers have fooled me most of the season. I think they will cover and they don't. I don't think they will cover and they do. Last week, they pushed against a 22-point spread at Wake. I believe the Tigers will win their third in a row against the Gamecocks, but I think the 24 points is too much. Pick -- South Carolina
     -- Kentucky at Louisville -26.0. Louisville takes out some frustration on Kentucky. Lamar Jackson gets back on track. Don't worry Wildcats. Basketball season us underway. Pick -- Louisville
     -- Michigan at Ohio State -6.5. I think this is the layup of the week. The lock of the season. The Buckeyes will deflate the overrated Wolverines and knock them out of the CFP. Pick -- Ohio State
     -- Virginia at Virginia Tech -18.5. Is this a rivalry? Virginia Tech has won 12 in a row against Virginia. The spread is a little high but give me the Hokies. Pick -- Virginia Tech
     -- Auburn at Alabama -17.0. Seventeen points isn't enough for slumping Auburn. Roll Tide roll. Pick -- Alabama
     -- Mississippi State at Ole Miss -8.0. Ole Miss needs this game to become bowl eligible. The State defense has allowed 109 points in its last two games. Give the Golden Egg to the Rebels. Hoddy Toddy. Pick -- Ole Miss
     -- Florida at Florida State -7.0. Florida won an emotional game at LSU last week. Florida State has won three straight. I think the Seminoles will roll the Gators. Pick -- Florida State
     -- Notre Dame at Southern Cal -17.5. This might be a bigger lock than the Michigan-Ohio State game. Two teams going in different directions. The Irish end a pathetic season with another pathetic performance. Fight on. Pick -- Southern Cal
   



     Last Week -- 4-5-1
     For The Season -- 57-59-4

Like Dabo Said, Flush It

     After the craziest Saturday of the season, I can take comfort in the wise words of Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney.

     Flush it.

     3-7. Yeah, that's correct. 3-7. By far my worst week of the season. Clemson continues to baffle me. I just can't figure out the Tigers. One of my wins was Georgia, which beat Auburn outright.

     The stinker drops me to 53-54-3, the first time this season the overall record has been below .500.

     Let's see if we can pick ourselves and move forward. It is time to rise up.

     As always, all picks are against the spread and are for entertainment purposes only.

     -- Louisville at Houston +14. This game was going to be Louisville's late-season statement until Houston, which opened the season with an upset of Oklahoma, lost two games. The Cardinals' only hope for an open path to the CFP is a Clemson loss to Wake Forest and statement win at Houston. I expect the Cards to roll the Cougars. Pick -- Louisville

     -- Louisiana-Lafayette at Georgia -23. I believe the Dawgs will win, but I think the spread is too high for Georgia's anemic offense. Pick -- Louisiana-Lafayette

     -- Oklahoma State at TCU -4.5. The Pokes travel to Fort Worth with Big 12 title hopes on the line. Give me the points. Pick -- Oklahoma State 

     -- Virginia at Georgia Tech -11. Can Paul Johnson save his job with a late-season run? Can the Yellow Jackets sweep the state of Virginia? Pick -- Georgia Tech

     -- Clemson at Wake Forest - 22. The Tigers self-destructed last week against Pitt. Turnovers and discipline on defense continue to be big problems. The Tigers dropped to No. 4 in the CFP poll, which means three victories and the Tigers are in. There is no margin of error. I believe Clemson will beat Wake but will not cover. Pick -- Wake Forest

     -- Florida at LSU -14. League rules forced Florida to play this game. You have to play eight to win the SEC title. But instead of playing in The Swamp where the game was originally scheduled, the Gators have to travel to the Bayou. The Tigers will skin the Gators in the Great Hurricane Makeup and create more turmoil in the SEC Least. Pick -- LSU

     -- Washington State at Colorado -4.5. Mike Leach's high-flying Cougars knock a hole in Colorado's Pac 12 title hopes. Pick -- Washington State

     -- Virginia Tech at Notre Dame. The Irish will take down the skiddish Hokies. Pick -- Notre Dame

     -- Oklahoma at West Virginia +2.5. Loser is out of the Big 12 title race. Morgantown can be an intimidating place. But I think Oklahoma wins this one, which means all of the couches in Morgantown will stay on the front porch instead of being burned in the front yard. Pick -- Oklahoma

     -- Southern Cal at UCLA +10.5. The red-hot Trojans will bash the Bruins. Fight on! Pick -- Southern Cal

     Last Week -- 3-7

     For The Season -- 53-54-3