It's time to brag. After two mediocre weeks, the Picks Machine heated up last week to produce a sterling 6-2-1 record. Georgia Tech and Houston provided the only blemishes on last week's picks. And one game -- Marshall at South Carolina -- was lost to Hurricane Florence.
I am calling this Road Warrior Saturday. Clemson, Georgia, and South Carolina all have interesting/scary road contests with point spreads that force you to take a second look. And a third look.
Any time Clemson is favored by more than two touchdowns it is difficult to take the Tigers because they rarely pull away and have a bad habit of letting the opposition hang around. Georgia has looked impressive early and is a two-touchdown favorite at Missouri. Mizzou, whose offensive coordinator is Derek Dooley, son of Georgia's legendary Vince Dooley, has a high-scoring offense. Question is can Mizzou score on the Junkyard Dawgs? South Carolina has won nine straight against Vandy. The Commodores gave Notre Dame all it wanted last Saturday in South Bend. Be extremely careful Gamecocks.
All picks are against the spread and are for entertainment purposes only.
Here are this week's selections.
Georgia at Missouri +14 -- This is an interesting trip for the Dawgs. Georgia has stomped the opposition so far this season. Missouri has scored 40 or more points in its three games. To date, the Dawgs have looked the part of a playoff team. I believe the Georgia defense will lock down the Missouri offense. Pick -- Georgia
Clemson at Georgia Tech +16.5 -- Clemson has yet to find its rhythm this season. Paul Johnson is crankier than usual because his football team is a three-alarm dumpster fire. Tech will be excited to be at home but that excitement will last for just a short period of time. Talent should take over. Strange things can happen at Grant Field. I think this spread is too high, but the Tigers will survive. Pick -- Georgia Tech.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt +2.0 -- South Carolina has owned Vandy. The Commodores can play defense. I expect a titanic struggle in Nashville. Pick -- Vanderbilt
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State +13.0 -- Buckle your seat belts for this one. Both of these teams can score. And score a lot. Texas Tech wiped out Houston last week. The Red Raiders have scored 140 points in the last two games. The Pokes have played well with senior quarterback Taylor "Corn Dog" Cornelius at the controls. Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has yet to play a Power Five team. With an over/under of 77.5, Vegas is expecting a shootout. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Notre Dame at Wake Forest +7.5 -- The Irish hit the road for the first time. The Domers have beaten three opponents by an average of 6.6 points per game. The Deacons dropped a narrow decision to Boston College last week. I expect an inspired effort from the Deacons. Pick -- Wake Forest
Boston College at Purdue +6.5 -- BC running back A.J. Dillon is the real deal. Purdue is 0-3 and has lost three games by an average of 2.6 points per game. Is this week the Boilermakers break through? Nope. Pick -- Boston College
Louisville at Virginia -5.0 -- Interesting matchup between two 2-1 teams. Louisville by beaten two cupcakes since getting blasted by Alabama in the opener. Virginia put in some extra effort -- at trip to Nashville -- to get last week's victory against Ohio. I think the point spread is for the home field. Pick -- Virginia
Texas A&M at Alabama -27.0 -- Alabama is showing no signs of letting up. It will take a perfect game by the opposition to have any chance against the Tide. The Aggies will get plowed. Pick -- Alabama
TCU at Texas +3.5 -- The No. 1 question surrounding this game -- After the physical battle with Ohio State, will the Frogs be able to pump up their emotional balloon for the Longhorns? I think the Frogs defense will be the difference. Pick -- TCU
Florida at Tennessee +4.5 -- The Rebuilding Bowl takes place this Saturday in Knoxville. A loss for the Gators would end any hope of the SEC East title before the end of September. That's tough to take. Tennessee has had a lot of bad luck against Florida. I think that changes Saturday. Pick -- Tennessee
Last Week -- 6-2-1
For The Season -- 15-13-1
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Mediocre Start Continues
Last week's picks featured the biggest bust to date when I picked Pittsburgh as an upset special. Nice pick. The Panthers got destroyed at home by Penn State and should be happy they only have one more game on the current contact with the Nittany Lions.
I also wiffed badly on Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers went to College Station and used their same old tired script -- get a two-touchdown lead, sit on it, then cause great anxiety across the Upstate as the opposition takes a final stab at pulling out a victory. South Carolina held on in the first half then got steamrolled in the second half by a more talented Georgia team.
Three bad misses led to a 5-5 record and I remain two games under .500 after two weeks.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Let's get to this week's selections.
Boston College at Wake Forest +7 (Thursday) -- I believe Thursday nights (now late afternoon because of Florence) should be for college football only. A college game on Thursday night gets the weekend off to a good start. BC generated a lot of buzz in the preseason. The Eagles have the pieces to be competitive. BC running back A.J. Dillon is considered the best in the ACC. The Deacons can be tough in their own pulpit. A nice early season test for the Eagles. Pick -- Boston College
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh +5.0 -- Pitt is a major dumpster fire. Tech allowed South Florida to return two kickoff for touchdowns and the Bulls' offensive unit scored pretty much at will against Tech's revamped defense. I am guessing Pitt's offense is worse than Tech's defense. Pick -- Georgia Tech
Boise State at Oklahoma State -3.0 -- This is the most interesting game of the week. Boise State is looking like the Boise State of old. The Cowboys are 2-0 and are still scoring lots of points. Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin doesn't want to hear any talk about Power Five vs. Group of Five. Tough call, but I am going to take the home field. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Georgia Southern at Clemson -34.0 -- Rain and wind from Florence will be a major factor, which will make the +34 difficult to cover for the Tigers. Pick -- Georgia Southern
Marshall at South Carolina -13.5 -- Will the Gamecocks suffered a Dawg hangover? It has happened in the past. But I don't think it will happen this week. Pick -- South Carolina
Florida State at Syracuse +3.5 -- This might be the biggest gift of the weekend. Florida State is a mess. Did Jimbo leave the cupboard bare or is Willie Taggart totally lost? Syracuse is led by fiery quarterback Eric Dungey, who does an excellent job with run-pass options. I think the Noles are in serious trouble. Pick -- Syracuse
LSU at Auburn -9.5 -- This spread looks out of whack. An early SEC showdown on The Plains. I think the difference in the game will be the experience of Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham. But I still think the spread is too high -- LSU
Houston at Texas Tech -1.5 -- After blasting Arizona, Houston travels to Lubbock to face high-scoring Texas Tech in another Power Five vs. Group of Five matchup. The Red Raiders have five starters who are questionable because of injuries. And pressure is mounting on Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The Tech administration is expecting Kingsbury to show some improvement this season. Starting 1-2 means you better start working on your resume. Pick -- Houston
Alabama at Ole Miss +21.0 -- With Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback and Nick Saban's angry defense, why would you pick against Bama? Why? Pick -- Alabama
Ohio State vs. TCU +12.5 at Arlington, Texas -- This is the third and final game of Urban Meyer's suspension. The Buckeyes, who have plowed through two cupcakes, hit the road and make a step up in competition. TCU head coach Gary Patterson is known for his defensive units, but the Horned Frogs have slipped recently. I think the Frogs will find a way to inside the spread. Pick -- TCU
Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 9-11
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Off To A Rocky Start, Tigers And Gamecock Face Challenges
After tripping coming out of the gate, let's see if Week Two brings any improvement.
A disappointing 4-6 record in the first week dug us a hole but not a deep hole.
Week Two promises to be more challenging. There are some double-digit spreads but no real layups.
By late Saturday night, we will know much more than we know right now about Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers travel to Aggieland, while the Gamecocks welcome the SEC East favorite to Williams-Brice.
Here are this week's selections.
Georgia at South Carolina +10 -- South Carolina always seems to play Georgia to the wall. Most everyone expected a blowout in Athens last season, but the Gamecocks hung around all day. The Gamecocks have got some early confidence. Gamecock wide receiver Deebo Samuel made a highlight catch in the first game and there are many more to come. Georgia better bring it. I am expecting a real fistfight. The Gamecocks can't match Georgia's talent, but I do think they will cover. Pick -- South Carolina
Clemson at Texas A&M -12.5 -- The Tigers go on the road for a major challenge. Jimbo Fisher, who knows the Tigers well, is in his first season at A&M and Aggie fans have high expectations. The quotes coming out of College Station this week have been full of confidence. Reading between the lines, there is SEC arrogance in the air. This will be the largest crowd ever to see the Tigers play a game -- more than 102,000. But the Tigers have been in many big-time environments the last five years. The Tigers know when they take the field they are going to get everybody's best shot. I have been nervous about this one the entire off-season. But I am going to trust Clemson's defense lives up to its pre-season billing. Pick -- Clemson
Arizona at Houston -4.5 -- The Kevin Sumlin era in the desert started with a dud as the Wildcats lost to BYU. Sumlin returns to Houston where he used to coach to face a solid Cougar squad. Houston beat crosstown rival Rice in the opener. Houston defensive end Ed Oliver is considered one of the best in the country. Arizona will have to keep Oliver from creating total havoc to have a chance. Pick -- Houston
Colorado at Nebraska -5.0 -- College football needs to give us more games like this. Back in the days of the Big 8, these two schools played on Thanksgiving weekend. Colorado comes to Lincoln after routing Colorado State. Nebraska, thoroughly juiced about new head coach Scott Frost, is still waiting on the Huskers' season to start. Lightning forced the Huskers to cancel their opener against Akron. Colorado is somewhat known. Nebraska is still an unknown. But I expect the emotion of the home crowd to carry the Huskers. Pick -- Nebraska
Iowa State at Iowa -3.5 -- This will be Iowa State's first game. Lightning forced the Cyclones to postpone last week's game against South Dakota State. Iowa recorded a solid victory against Northern Illinois in its opener. Seems strange to play a rivalry this early. Again, I think home field will make the difference. Pick -- Iowa
Wyoming at Missouri -17.5 -- Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl has an impressive record of success against Missouri. As a player, grad assistant and assistant coach at Nebraska, Bohl was 13-1 against the Tigers. But the high-scoring Tigers will hand him an "L" Saturday. Pick -- Missouri
Arkansas at Colorado State +13.0 -- Colorado State is off to an 0-2 start after getting hammered by Colorado last Saturday. The Rams are allowing an average of 44.0 points per game. The last thing a struggling defense needs is to face a fast-paced Chad Morris offense. Pick -- Arkansas
Georgia Tech at South Florida +3.0 -- Is Paul Johnson ever happy? Nope. He is always complaining about something. There is positive talk about Tech's new 3-4 defense and new defensive coordinator Nate Woody. But Tech's offense continues to battle inconsistency. Offensive shootouts are not good for the Jackets. Pick -- South Florida
Penn State at Pittsburgh -8.5 -- There is some good old fashioned hate in this one. Penn State head coach James Franklin has let it be known he thinks the Panthers are not worthy of future games with the high and mighty Nittany Lions. In the history of Penn State football, the Nittany Lions have played more games against Pitt than any other opponent -- 98. Pitt has played just one opponent -- West Virginia -- more than it has Penn State. Penn State almost got "App-ed" last week at home. And angry Pitt team waits for them at Heinz Field. Upset special. -- Pittsburgh
Southern Cal at Stanford -4.5 -- One of the biggest games of the season in the Pac 12 in Week Two. I am a big fan of Stanford head coach David Shaw. I like the way his teams play -- tough and physical. Take the Cardinal at home. Pick -- Stanford
Last Week -- 4-6-0
For The Season -- 4-6-0
A disappointing 4-6 record in the first week dug us a hole but not a deep hole.
Week Two promises to be more challenging. There are some double-digit spreads but no real layups.
By late Saturday night, we will know much more than we know right now about Clemson and South Carolina. The Tigers travel to Aggieland, while the Gamecocks welcome the SEC East favorite to Williams-Brice.
Here are this week's selections.
Georgia at South Carolina +10 -- South Carolina always seems to play Georgia to the wall. Most everyone expected a blowout in Athens last season, but the Gamecocks hung around all day. The Gamecocks have got some early confidence. Gamecock wide receiver Deebo Samuel made a highlight catch in the first game and there are many more to come. Georgia better bring it. I am expecting a real fistfight. The Gamecocks can't match Georgia's talent, but I do think they will cover. Pick -- South Carolina
Clemson at Texas A&M -12.5 -- The Tigers go on the road for a major challenge. Jimbo Fisher, who knows the Tigers well, is in his first season at A&M and Aggie fans have high expectations. The quotes coming out of College Station this week have been full of confidence. Reading between the lines, there is SEC arrogance in the air. This will be the largest crowd ever to see the Tigers play a game -- more than 102,000. But the Tigers have been in many big-time environments the last five years. The Tigers know when they take the field they are going to get everybody's best shot. I have been nervous about this one the entire off-season. But I am going to trust Clemson's defense lives up to its pre-season billing. Pick -- Clemson
Arizona at Houston -4.5 -- The Kevin Sumlin era in the desert started with a dud as the Wildcats lost to BYU. Sumlin returns to Houston where he used to coach to face a solid Cougar squad. Houston beat crosstown rival Rice in the opener. Houston defensive end Ed Oliver is considered one of the best in the country. Arizona will have to keep Oliver from creating total havoc to have a chance. Pick -- Houston
Colorado at Nebraska -5.0 -- College football needs to give us more games like this. Back in the days of the Big 8, these two schools played on Thanksgiving weekend. Colorado comes to Lincoln after routing Colorado State. Nebraska, thoroughly juiced about new head coach Scott Frost, is still waiting on the Huskers' season to start. Lightning forced the Huskers to cancel their opener against Akron. Colorado is somewhat known. Nebraska is still an unknown. But I expect the emotion of the home crowd to carry the Huskers. Pick -- Nebraska
Iowa State at Iowa -3.5 -- This will be Iowa State's first game. Lightning forced the Cyclones to postpone last week's game against South Dakota State. Iowa recorded a solid victory against Northern Illinois in its opener. Seems strange to play a rivalry this early. Again, I think home field will make the difference. Pick -- Iowa
Wyoming at Missouri -17.5 -- Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl has an impressive record of success against Missouri. As a player, grad assistant and assistant coach at Nebraska, Bohl was 13-1 against the Tigers. But the high-scoring Tigers will hand him an "L" Saturday. Pick -- Missouri
Arkansas at Colorado State +13.0 -- Colorado State is off to an 0-2 start after getting hammered by Colorado last Saturday. The Rams are allowing an average of 44.0 points per game. The last thing a struggling defense needs is to face a fast-paced Chad Morris offense. Pick -- Arkansas
Georgia Tech at South Florida +3.0 -- Is Paul Johnson ever happy? Nope. He is always complaining about something. There is positive talk about Tech's new 3-4 defense and new defensive coordinator Nate Woody. But Tech's offense continues to battle inconsistency. Offensive shootouts are not good for the Jackets. Pick -- South Florida
Penn State at Pittsburgh -8.5 -- There is some good old fashioned hate in this one. Penn State head coach James Franklin has let it be known he thinks the Panthers are not worthy of future games with the high and mighty Nittany Lions. In the history of Penn State football, the Nittany Lions have played more games against Pitt than any other opponent -- 98. Pitt has played just one opponent -- West Virginia -- more than it has Penn State. Penn State almost got "App-ed" last week at home. And angry Pitt team waits for them at Heinz Field. Upset special. -- Pittsburgh
Southern Cal at Stanford -4.5 -- One of the biggest games of the season in the Pac 12 in Week Two. I am a big fan of Stanford head coach David Shaw. I like the way his teams play -- tough and physical. Take the Cardinal at home. Pick -- Stanford
Last Week -- 4-6-0
For The Season -- 4-6-0
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
It's Time To Kick It Off
After an August filled with scandal and controversy in college football, it is finally time to get to games. Thank goodness.
Alabama and Clemson both are favorites to reach the College Football Playoff again. Others near the top of the list include Georgia, Ohio State, Washington, and Oklahoma. In other words, the usual suspects. Will there be a surprise this season to shake up the CFP?
In the new world of college football, we don't have to wait until late September until the schedule give us some interesting games. Week One has several awesome match ups.
So, let's get to it.
San Diego State at Stanford +14 -- Interesting California battle to get things started. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford annually has one of the most physical teams in the Pac 12. The Cardinal are led by Heisman Trophy favorite Bryce Love, a native of North Carolina. How did he get all the way out to Palo Alto? I think Love will make the difference. But doesn't it always? Pick -- Stanford
Texas at Maryland +13.5 -- Maryland was one of the schools rocked by scandal in the off-season. In June, Maryland player Jordan McNair died from a heat stroke. Allegations of player mistreatment started to surface. Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin is on administrative leave while an investigation continues into his program. How will the Terps respond? The Terps surprised the Longhorns last season. Won't happen this time. Pick -- Texas
Oregon State at Ohio State -38.5 -- Speaking of scandal, Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has been in the center of a storm for the past month. Weak apologies have not helped his cause. Meyer is serving a three-game suspension. But with three layups on the schedule, the Buckeyes will be 3-0 when he returns to the sideline. Pick -- Ohio State
Furman at Clemson No Line (+29.5) -- There is no line on this one. There are two interesting story lines. How much will the chosen one Trevor Lawrence play? Will Furman quarterback Harris Roberts, an engineering student at Clemson, be able to walk to class under his own power on Monday? I put up a line of +29.5. The Tigers will cover that spread before Dabo reels them in. Pick -- Clemson
Washington vs. Auburn -1.5 at Atlanta, Ga. -- This is a game both teams need for their playoff resumes. Even though this is a "neutral" site, it will be a home game for Auburn. This game features two experienced quarterbacks -- Jake Browning of Washington and Jarrett Stidham of Auburn -- and both teams have stout defenses. The line is based on the location of the game and doesn't mean a whole lot. I'm going to give the points and take the Tigers. Pick -- Auburn
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina -29.5 -- The sidebar to this game is the turf at Williams-Brice. A concert damaged the turf and the entire field was replaced this week. Carolina fans are excited about the return of Deebo Samuel, one of the most dynamic receivers in the country. The Gamecocks will not have a problem with their little brothers from Conway. Pick -- South Carolina
Michigan at Notre Dame -1.0 -- Another Week One slobber knocker. Jim Harbaugh is still trying to live up the hype and noise in Ann Arbor. The independent Irish really need this game for their resume. Two great defenses. Two questionable offenses. Give me the Irish at home. Pick -- Notre Dame
Louisville vs. Alabama -24.5 at Orlando, Fla. -- Looking at that line, somebody in the desert must know something. I know Lamar Jackson is gone, but the Cardinals didn't discontinue the program. Bama is Bama, but I'm going to give Louisville some credit. I think the Cardinals will stay within the spread. Pick -- Louisville
Miami (Fla.) vs. LSU +3.5 at Arlington, Texas -- There are rumblings LSU head coach Ed "Cookie Monster" Orgeron is sitting on a hot seat. Does anyone understand a word Orgeron says? Mark Richt has proven is great college football coach. He got the Hurricanes to 10-0 and a divisional title last season before they hit the wall. His rebuilding project in Coral Gables remains well ahead of schedule. Miami's defense lives off of turnovers. LSU's offense is questionable. Take the Canes. Pick -- Miami.
Virginia Tech at Florida State -7.5 -- The Willie Taggart era begins in Tallahassee with an interesting ACC game on Labor Day night. It was a rough off season in Blacksburg -- departures, suspensions, and dismissals thinned out and already thin roster. Tech head coach Justin Fuente challenged his team to be tougher and more committed. So he dialed it up in the off-season. After tearing up a knee is last season's opener against Alabama, Deondre Francois returns as FSU's starting quarterback. Taggart has brought tempo to the Seminoles' offense. I believe the pace will be too much for the Hokies. Pick -- Florida State
Last Week -- 0-0
For The Season -- 0-0
You want to play along and have some friendly competition? Send your picks before the first game of the week is played to cobbox@aol.com.
Alabama and Clemson both are favorites to reach the College Football Playoff again. Others near the top of the list include Georgia, Ohio State, Washington, and Oklahoma. In other words, the usual suspects. Will there be a surprise this season to shake up the CFP?
In the new world of college football, we don't have to wait until late September until the schedule give us some interesting games. Week One has several awesome match ups.
So, let's get to it.
San Diego State at Stanford +14 -- Interesting California battle to get things started. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford annually has one of the most physical teams in the Pac 12. The Cardinal are led by Heisman Trophy favorite Bryce Love, a native of North Carolina. How did he get all the way out to Palo Alto? I think Love will make the difference. But doesn't it always? Pick -- Stanford
Texas at Maryland +13.5 -- Maryland was one of the schools rocked by scandal in the off-season. In June, Maryland player Jordan McNair died from a heat stroke. Allegations of player mistreatment started to surface. Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin is on administrative leave while an investigation continues into his program. How will the Terps respond? The Terps surprised the Longhorns last season. Won't happen this time. Pick -- Texas
Oregon State at Ohio State -38.5 -- Speaking of scandal, Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer has been in the center of a storm for the past month. Weak apologies have not helped his cause. Meyer is serving a three-game suspension. But with three layups on the schedule, the Buckeyes will be 3-0 when he returns to the sideline. Pick -- Ohio State
Furman at Clemson No Line (+29.5) -- There is no line on this one. There are two interesting story lines. How much will the chosen one Trevor Lawrence play? Will Furman quarterback Harris Roberts, an engineering student at Clemson, be able to walk to class under his own power on Monday? I put up a line of +29.5. The Tigers will cover that spread before Dabo reels them in. Pick -- Clemson
Washington vs. Auburn -1.5 at Atlanta, Ga. -- This is a game both teams need for their playoff resumes. Even though this is a "neutral" site, it will be a home game for Auburn. This game features two experienced quarterbacks -- Jake Browning of Washington and Jarrett Stidham of Auburn -- and both teams have stout defenses. The line is based on the location of the game and doesn't mean a whole lot. I'm going to give the points and take the Tigers. Pick -- Auburn
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina -29.5 -- The sidebar to this game is the turf at Williams-Brice. A concert damaged the turf and the entire field was replaced this week. Carolina fans are excited about the return of Deebo Samuel, one of the most dynamic receivers in the country. The Gamecocks will not have a problem with their little brothers from Conway. Pick -- South Carolina
Michigan at Notre Dame -1.0 -- Another Week One slobber knocker. Jim Harbaugh is still trying to live up the hype and noise in Ann Arbor. The independent Irish really need this game for their resume. Two great defenses. Two questionable offenses. Give me the Irish at home. Pick -- Notre Dame
Louisville vs. Alabama -24.5 at Orlando, Fla. -- Looking at that line, somebody in the desert must know something. I know Lamar Jackson is gone, but the Cardinals didn't discontinue the program. Bama is Bama, but I'm going to give Louisville some credit. I think the Cardinals will stay within the spread. Pick -- Louisville
Miami (Fla.) vs. LSU +3.5 at Arlington, Texas -- There are rumblings LSU head coach Ed "Cookie Monster" Orgeron is sitting on a hot seat. Does anyone understand a word Orgeron says? Mark Richt has proven is great college football coach. He got the Hurricanes to 10-0 and a divisional title last season before they hit the wall. His rebuilding project in Coral Gables remains well ahead of schedule. Miami's defense lives off of turnovers. LSU's offense is questionable. Take the Canes. Pick -- Miami.
Virginia Tech at Florida State -7.5 -- The Willie Taggart era begins in Tallahassee with an interesting ACC game on Labor Day night. It was a rough off season in Blacksburg -- departures, suspensions, and dismissals thinned out and already thin roster. Tech head coach Justin Fuente challenged his team to be tougher and more committed. So he dialed it up in the off-season. After tearing up a knee is last season's opener against Alabama, Deondre Francois returns as FSU's starting quarterback. Taggart has brought tempo to the Seminoles' offense. I believe the pace will be too much for the Hokies. Pick -- Florida State
Last Week -- 0-0
For The Season -- 0-0
You want to play along and have some friendly competition? Send your picks before the first game of the week is played to cobbox@aol.com.
Monday, January 8, 2018
Update And A Final Prediction
Bowl season did serious damage to the Cobb Blog.
I picked the last 18 bowl games and had a "sterling" record of 5-12-1. That leaves the Blog at 74-80-2 for the season and no way of getting to the .500 mark for the season with just one game remaining.
Tonight's game features something most people in the country don't want -- two teams from the same conference playing for the College Football Playoff title. The SEC will claim its ninth national title in the last 12 years.
I still believe the College Football Playoff committee should put more value in winning conference championships or at least winning a conference division championship. The Tide didn't win anything prior to getting invited to the tournament. Alabama got to sit at home the first Saturday of December while everybody else was butting heads and battling for survival for another week. If the Tide wins, I hope debate to get to eight teams becomes a raging fire. In my humble opinion, the tournament needs to be the five conference champions, one from the Group of Five, and two at-large teams. The debate would be about the two at-large teams and seeding for the tournament. But at least a conference title would mean something.
Georgia pulled off a remarkable comeback in the Rose Bowl against Oklahoma to reach the title game in Atlanta. The Bulldogs, led by running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, ran all over Oklahoma. That will not be the case tonight at the Mercedes-Benz Dome against the Tide.
I saw Alabama's defense up close and personal last Monday night in New Orleans. It was an angry, physical unit on a mission. It is a defense built to stop the run. The Tide suffocated Clemson's offense. Nick Saban, seeking his fifth national title in nine years, is a perfect 11-0 against his ex-assistants. That streak has to end some time. It will not end tonight.
I admire Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts. Nobody gives the guy any credit. Even the Tide fans continue to lobby for the backup. But Hurts is tough and he is a winner.
The only place Alabama is lacking is at placekicker. For some reason, Saban has never been able to get a decent kicker to come to Tuscaloosa. But I don't think it is going to be close enough Monday night for a missed field goal to matter.
I expect the Tide to roll to a resounding victory.
Take the Crimson Tide and give the 3.5 points.
Pick -- Alabama
Wednesday, December 27, 2017
The Final Blog For 2017
I guess most of you thought I was done. Not so fast.
I've got time for one more blog in 2017.
I'm going to pick the final 18 bowl games, beginning with Thursday's games.
This is a high-risk move, but then I'm a high-risk type of guy.
A Championship Weekend record of 5-4-1 pushed me one game over .500 for the season. So, it's all on the line with these final 18 games.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Here are the selections.
Camping World Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State -4.0 -- Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy flirted with Tennessee. Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuentes was mentioned for a couple of jobs. But both managed to stay put. It has been a disappointing season for the Cowboys and a surprising season for Virginia Tech. Hokie defensive coordinator Bud Foster will cook something up for Okie State, but I believe the Cowboys have too many weapons. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Military Bowl
Virginia vs. Navy -1.5 -- Virginia played better down the stretch. Navy did not. This game will be determined by Virginia's ability to control Navy's running game. The Midshipmen do not believe in the forward pass. Take the Cavaliers. Pick -- Virginia
Alamo Bowl
Stanford vs. TCU -2.5 -- TCU got torched twice by Oklahoma. Stanford lost a heart breaker to Southern Cal in the Pac 12 Championship game. This one is definitely a Who Wants It More Game. Pick -- Stanford
Holiday Bowl
Washington State vs. Michigan State -1.5 -- Since the game is being played on the West Coast, I am going to take the Cougars. A second reason to pick the Cougars is they have Mike Leach, the most quotable head coach in the country. Pick -- Washington State
Belk Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M +3.0 -- I like the way the Deacons play. I don't think three points is enough for the Aggies. Pick -- Wake Forest
Sun Bowl
N.C. State vs. Arizona State +6.5 -- N.C. State started the season in Charlotte by choking away a game to South Carolina. How did that happen? The Wolfpack has been a wobbling mess since losing to Clemson. I see more disappointment in Charlotte for the Wolfies. At least they will get a shopping spree at Belk's. Pick -- Arizona State
Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Northwestern -7.5 -- Nashville will be full of blue-clad fans screaming Cats, Cats, Cats. I don't think it will matter. Big 10 Wildcats slap SEC Wildcats. Pick -- Northwestern
Arizona Bowl
New Mexico State vs. Utah State -4.0 -- I don't know a thing about this game, and I don't care. Pick -- Utah State
Cotton Bowl
Southern Cal vs. Ohio State -7.5 -- This is the most interesting of the non-playoff match ups. I can't believe the Rose Bowl did make a call and offer to trade Oklahoma-Georgia for this game. I have said all season Ohio State is a fraud. I am going to continue to say it. Fight on! Pick -- Southern Cal
Taxslayer Bowl
Louisville vs. Mississippi State +6.5 -- Next thing you know they're going to name a bowl the CPA Bowl. Because of the recent tax cuts in Washington this should have been renamed the Trump Bowl. Louisville has shifty quarterback Lamar Jackson, who can lead the Cardinals to points in a hurry. Mississippi State lost Dan Mullen to Florida and lost its starting quarterback to an ankle injury in the Ole Miss game. I think the Cardinals roll. Pick -- Louisville
Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs. Memphis -3.5 -- High-scoring Memphis is a home in its own stadium for a bowl game. Lay up. Pick -- Memphis
Fiesta Bowl
Washington vs. Penn State -2.5 -- Penn State's dreams of a Big 10 title did not materialize. I think the Nittany Lions will end the season on a high note. Pick -- Penn State
Orange Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami +6.0 -- On Championship Saturday, both of these teams had opportunities to reach the College Football Playoff. Both failed. Miami seems to play with more vigor at home at Hard Rock Stadium. I think Miami's speed will be the difference in the game. Pick -- Miami
Outback Bowl
Michigan vs. South Carolina +7.5 -- This is the Offensively Challenged Bowl. Certainly Coach Khaki Pants can rise up and slam Coach Boom. Right? Hail to the victors. Pick -- Michigan
Peach Bowl
Central Florida vs. Auburn -9.5 -- Central Florida is undefeated and can score. Central Florida hasn't seen anything that resembles Auburn's defense. Will Auburn be excited about another trip to Atlanta? In my mind, Auburn's excitement level will determine the outcome. Pick -- Auburn
Citrus Bowl
Notre Dame vs. LSU -3.0 -- Cajuns vs. Catholics. That's got a ring to it. Let's make a t-shirt and make some cash. This was a nice turnaround season for Brian Kelly and his Irish. Shake down the thunder from the sky. Pick -- Notre Dame
Rose Bowl
Georgia vs. Oklahoma +2.0 -- Oklahoma has Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is a nice player, but he has shown he has a screw loose and that he will take chances, way too many chances. Georgia has something rarely seen by Oklahoma in the Big 12 -- a big-time defense. Dawgs pull the upset to earn yet another trip to Atlanta. Pick -- Georgia
Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs. Clemson +3.0 -- Two classics in two years.Will there be a third? Alabama opened as a favorite and the spread has continued to rise. I don't know what it is going to take to make the boys in the desert to believe in Clemson. I think this game is easy to figure out -- Both teams have excellent running quarterbacks and lots of powerful running backs. Good news for Clemson -- Bama tight end O.J. Howard is in the NFL. Bad news for Bama -- Clemson wide receiver Hunter Renfrow is still with the Tigers. I promise you Renfrow will get the Tide's full attention. That should open up some opportunities for Clemson's other wideouts. Whoever runs the ball the best and whoever stops the run will win. Pick -- Clemson
Last Week -- 5-4-1
For The Season -- 69-68-2
I've got time for one more blog in 2017.
I'm going to pick the final 18 bowl games, beginning with Thursday's games.
This is a high-risk move, but then I'm a high-risk type of guy.
A Championship Weekend record of 5-4-1 pushed me one game over .500 for the season. So, it's all on the line with these final 18 games.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Here are the selections.
Camping World Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State -4.0 -- Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy flirted with Tennessee. Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuentes was mentioned for a couple of jobs. But both managed to stay put. It has been a disappointing season for the Cowboys and a surprising season for Virginia Tech. Hokie defensive coordinator Bud Foster will cook something up for Okie State, but I believe the Cowboys have too many weapons. Pick -- Oklahoma State
Military Bowl
Virginia vs. Navy -1.5 -- Virginia played better down the stretch. Navy did not. This game will be determined by Virginia's ability to control Navy's running game. The Midshipmen do not believe in the forward pass. Take the Cavaliers. Pick -- Virginia
Alamo Bowl
Stanford vs. TCU -2.5 -- TCU got torched twice by Oklahoma. Stanford lost a heart breaker to Southern Cal in the Pac 12 Championship game. This one is definitely a Who Wants It More Game. Pick -- Stanford
Holiday Bowl
Washington State vs. Michigan State -1.5 -- Since the game is being played on the West Coast, I am going to take the Cougars. A second reason to pick the Cougars is they have Mike Leach, the most quotable head coach in the country. Pick -- Washington State
Belk Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M +3.0 -- I like the way the Deacons play. I don't think three points is enough for the Aggies. Pick -- Wake Forest
Sun Bowl
N.C. State vs. Arizona State +6.5 -- N.C. State started the season in Charlotte by choking away a game to South Carolina. How did that happen? The Wolfpack has been a wobbling mess since losing to Clemson. I see more disappointment in Charlotte for the Wolfies. At least they will get a shopping spree at Belk's. Pick -- Arizona State
Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Northwestern -7.5 -- Nashville will be full of blue-clad fans screaming Cats, Cats, Cats. I don't think it will matter. Big 10 Wildcats slap SEC Wildcats. Pick -- Northwestern
Arizona Bowl
New Mexico State vs. Utah State -4.0 -- I don't know a thing about this game, and I don't care. Pick -- Utah State
Cotton Bowl
Southern Cal vs. Ohio State -7.5 -- This is the most interesting of the non-playoff match ups. I can't believe the Rose Bowl did make a call and offer to trade Oklahoma-Georgia for this game. I have said all season Ohio State is a fraud. I am going to continue to say it. Fight on! Pick -- Southern Cal
Taxslayer Bowl
Louisville vs. Mississippi State +6.5 -- Next thing you know they're going to name a bowl the CPA Bowl. Because of the recent tax cuts in Washington this should have been renamed the Trump Bowl. Louisville has shifty quarterback Lamar Jackson, who can lead the Cardinals to points in a hurry. Mississippi State lost Dan Mullen to Florida and lost its starting quarterback to an ankle injury in the Ole Miss game. I think the Cardinals roll. Pick -- Louisville
Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs. Memphis -3.5 -- High-scoring Memphis is a home in its own stadium for a bowl game. Lay up. Pick -- Memphis
Fiesta Bowl
Washington vs. Penn State -2.5 -- Penn State's dreams of a Big 10 title did not materialize. I think the Nittany Lions will end the season on a high note. Pick -- Penn State
Orange Bowl
Wisconsin vs. Miami +6.0 -- On Championship Saturday, both of these teams had opportunities to reach the College Football Playoff. Both failed. Miami seems to play with more vigor at home at Hard Rock Stadium. I think Miami's speed will be the difference in the game. Pick -- Miami
Outback Bowl
Michigan vs. South Carolina +7.5 -- This is the Offensively Challenged Bowl. Certainly Coach Khaki Pants can rise up and slam Coach Boom. Right? Hail to the victors. Pick -- Michigan
Peach Bowl
Central Florida vs. Auburn -9.5 -- Central Florida is undefeated and can score. Central Florida hasn't seen anything that resembles Auburn's defense. Will Auburn be excited about another trip to Atlanta? In my mind, Auburn's excitement level will determine the outcome. Pick -- Auburn
Citrus Bowl
Notre Dame vs. LSU -3.0 -- Cajuns vs. Catholics. That's got a ring to it. Let's make a t-shirt and make some cash. This was a nice turnaround season for Brian Kelly and his Irish. Shake down the thunder from the sky. Pick -- Notre Dame
Rose Bowl
Georgia vs. Oklahoma +2.0 -- Oklahoma has Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. Mayfield is a nice player, but he has shown he has a screw loose and that he will take chances, way too many chances. Georgia has something rarely seen by Oklahoma in the Big 12 -- a big-time defense. Dawgs pull the upset to earn yet another trip to Atlanta. Pick -- Georgia
Sugar Bowl
Alabama vs. Clemson +3.0 -- Two classics in two years.Will there be a third? Alabama opened as a favorite and the spread has continued to rise. I don't know what it is going to take to make the boys in the desert to believe in Clemson. I think this game is easy to figure out -- Both teams have excellent running quarterbacks and lots of powerful running backs. Good news for Clemson -- Bama tight end O.J. Howard is in the NFL. Bad news for Bama -- Clemson wide receiver Hunter Renfrow is still with the Tigers. I promise you Renfrow will get the Tide's full attention. That should open up some opportunities for Clemson's other wideouts. Whoever runs the ball the best and whoever stops the run will win. Pick -- Clemson
Last Week -- 5-4-1
For The Season -- 69-68-2
Thursday, November 30, 2017
It's Championship Weekend
We have reached championship weekend.
As we approach the biggest games of the season, the College Football Playoff top four are Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. If all four win Saturday, the CFP committee can kick back and drink lots of coffee Sunday morning.
I personally believe Alabama is out and should be out. Even Alabama head coach Nick Saban has said a team that does not win its conference should not play for the national championship. The Tide didn't even win the Western Division. But Saturday chaos could open the door for the Tide, which would be a shame in my opinion. Bama's resume is weak, really weak. The Tide simply isn't deserving this year.
The ACC and SEC championship games are essentially quarterfinal playoff games. If TCU beats Oklahoma and Ohio State manages to beat Wisconsin, the situation will get dicey late Saturday night.
Last week was another 5-5 week to push the season record to 64-64-2.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Here are this week's selections.
Friday
Stanford vs. Southern Cal -4.0 at Santa Clara, Calif. -- Most of the national talk has the Pacific 12 already out of the College Football Playoff picture. Southern Cal has two losses, Stanford has three. But a victory by the Trojans and some Saturday chaos could put Southern Cal in the Sunday morning discussion. Stanford is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in nine games this season. After 12 straight weeks, Southern Cal had last week off. While the Trojans were resting, Stanford was running over Notre Dame. Southern Cal beat Stanford, 42-24 on Sept. 9. Stanford is traditionally strong late in the season. I am going to take the Cardinal in the rematch. Pick -- Stanford
Saturday
Georgia vs. Auburn -2.5 at Atlanta -- Auburn has done something no other team has ever done -- beaten two No. 1 teams in a three-week period. This is not the same Auburn team that lost at Clemson. The key to this game is Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson, who was banged up in the Iron Bowl victory over Alabama. Johnson is a key part of Auburn's offense, which has really started to hum. Most reports say Johnson will be a game-time decision. Georgia's running game got stuffed in the first meeting. The Bulldogs will have to get more on the ground if they want to get revenge. I am expecting a pro-Georgia crowd for the first SEC title game in the Mercedes-Benz Dome. I thing the Dawgs will pull it off. Pick -- Georgia
Miami vs. Clemson -9.5 at Charlotte, N.C. -- One more step and the Tigers will make it a remarkable three College Football Playoffs in a row. Mark Richt, the ACC Coach of the Year, has done a terrific job in Miami. The dumpster fire at South Beach has been extinguished. The Hurricanes have lived off their defense and take a lot of pride in the Turnover Chain. Ball security will be job No. 1 for Clemson. Miami is down a couple of play makers on offense because of injuries, so I expect the Hurricanes to fight an uphill battle most of the night against Clemson's defense. Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant will be tested, but I believe he will pass the test. Pick -- Clemson
North Texas at Florida Atlantic -11.5 -- FAU head coach Lane Kiffin has spent more time tweeting and trolling Tennessee than worrying about his team this week. Kiffin has directed a quick turnaround for the Owls. The Owls will take down the Mean Green for the Conference USA title. Pick -- Florida Atlantic
Memphis at Central Florida -7.0 -- This will be a wide-open, which-team-has-the-ball-last affair. Rumors are swirling that Central Florida head coach Scott Frost is headed back to Nebraska soon. Will the constant rumors regarding Frost's departure affect the Knights? Pick -- Central Florida
TCU vs. Oklahoma -7.0 at Arlington, Tx. -- Oklahoma won the first meeting 38-20 on Nov. 11. If package-grabbing Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield wins this game, he will have more Big 12 titles (3) than conference losses (2) in his career. For TCU to have a chance, the Frog defense will have to play better and quarterback Kenny Hill will have to play much bigger than he did in the first game. I just don't think TCU has enough firepower to stay with Oklahoma. Pick -- Oklahoma
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin +6.5 at Indianapolis -- This one will not be 59-0. That game is most certainly burned into Wisconsin's memory. The underdog Badgers are undefeated. Wisconsin is still searching for respect. I think the Badgers will finally find that respect Saturday. Pick -- Wisconsin
Akron vs. Toledo -21.5 at Detroit -- Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside tossed five touchdown passes in the Rockets' 48-21 victory over Akron on Oct. 21. I am expecting much the same result the second time around. Rockets take the MAC. Pick -- Toledo
Fresno State at Boise State -8.5 -- The Mountain West Conference championship game features one of the most weird situations of the weekend. Fresno beat Boise at home 28-17 last Saturday. A week later, the two teams will meet in Boise for the title. There is a reason Boise is favored by more than a touchdown. Take the Broncos on the smurf turf. Pick -- Boise State
Furman at Wofford -- This is a second-round game in the FCS playoffs. In the first meeting, Wofford won by one point when Furman missed a two-point conversion late in the game. Both teams stay on the ground, so this will be a quick game. I think the second meeting will go to the Paladins. Pick -- Furman
Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 64-64-2
As we approach the biggest games of the season, the College Football Playoff top four are Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma and Wisconsin. If all four win Saturday, the CFP committee can kick back and drink lots of coffee Sunday morning.
I personally believe Alabama is out and should be out. Even Alabama head coach Nick Saban has said a team that does not win its conference should not play for the national championship. The Tide didn't even win the Western Division. But Saturday chaos could open the door for the Tide, which would be a shame in my opinion. Bama's resume is weak, really weak. The Tide simply isn't deserving this year.
The ACC and SEC championship games are essentially quarterfinal playoff games. If TCU beats Oklahoma and Ohio State manages to beat Wisconsin, the situation will get dicey late Saturday night.
Last week was another 5-5 week to push the season record to 64-64-2.
As always, all picks are against the spread and for entertainment purposes only.
Here are this week's selections.
Friday
Stanford vs. Southern Cal -4.0 at Santa Clara, Calif. -- Most of the national talk has the Pacific 12 already out of the College Football Playoff picture. Southern Cal has two losses, Stanford has three. But a victory by the Trojans and some Saturday chaos could put Southern Cal in the Sunday morning discussion. Stanford is led by Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in nine games this season. After 12 straight weeks, Southern Cal had last week off. While the Trojans were resting, Stanford was running over Notre Dame. Southern Cal beat Stanford, 42-24 on Sept. 9. Stanford is traditionally strong late in the season. I am going to take the Cardinal in the rematch. Pick -- Stanford
Saturday
Georgia vs. Auburn -2.5 at Atlanta -- Auburn has done something no other team has ever done -- beaten two No. 1 teams in a three-week period. This is not the same Auburn team that lost at Clemson. The key to this game is Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson, who was banged up in the Iron Bowl victory over Alabama. Johnson is a key part of Auburn's offense, which has really started to hum. Most reports say Johnson will be a game-time decision. Georgia's running game got stuffed in the first meeting. The Bulldogs will have to get more on the ground if they want to get revenge. I am expecting a pro-Georgia crowd for the first SEC title game in the Mercedes-Benz Dome. I thing the Dawgs will pull it off. Pick -- Georgia
Miami vs. Clemson -9.5 at Charlotte, N.C. -- One more step and the Tigers will make it a remarkable three College Football Playoffs in a row. Mark Richt, the ACC Coach of the Year, has done a terrific job in Miami. The dumpster fire at South Beach has been extinguished. The Hurricanes have lived off their defense and take a lot of pride in the Turnover Chain. Ball security will be job No. 1 for Clemson. Miami is down a couple of play makers on offense because of injuries, so I expect the Hurricanes to fight an uphill battle most of the night against Clemson's defense. Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant will be tested, but I believe he will pass the test. Pick -- Clemson
North Texas at Florida Atlantic -11.5 -- FAU head coach Lane Kiffin has spent more time tweeting and trolling Tennessee than worrying about his team this week. Kiffin has directed a quick turnaround for the Owls. The Owls will take down the Mean Green for the Conference USA title. Pick -- Florida Atlantic
Memphis at Central Florida -7.0 -- This will be a wide-open, which-team-has-the-ball-last affair. Rumors are swirling that Central Florida head coach Scott Frost is headed back to Nebraska soon. Will the constant rumors regarding Frost's departure affect the Knights? Pick -- Central Florida
TCU vs. Oklahoma -7.0 at Arlington, Tx. -- Oklahoma won the first meeting 38-20 on Nov. 11. If package-grabbing Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield wins this game, he will have more Big 12 titles (3) than conference losses (2) in his career. For TCU to have a chance, the Frog defense will have to play better and quarterback Kenny Hill will have to play much bigger than he did in the first game. I just don't think TCU has enough firepower to stay with Oklahoma. Pick -- Oklahoma
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin +6.5 at Indianapolis -- This one will not be 59-0. That game is most certainly burned into Wisconsin's memory. The underdog Badgers are undefeated. Wisconsin is still searching for respect. I think the Badgers will finally find that respect Saturday. Pick -- Wisconsin
Akron vs. Toledo -21.5 at Detroit -- Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside tossed five touchdown passes in the Rockets' 48-21 victory over Akron on Oct. 21. I am expecting much the same result the second time around. Rockets take the MAC. Pick -- Toledo
Fresno State at Boise State -8.5 -- The Mountain West Conference championship game features one of the most weird situations of the weekend. Fresno beat Boise at home 28-17 last Saturday. A week later, the two teams will meet in Boise for the title. There is a reason Boise is favored by more than a touchdown. Take the Broncos on the smurf turf. Pick -- Boise State
Furman at Wofford -- This is a second-round game in the FCS playoffs. In the first meeting, Wofford won by one point when Furman missed a two-point conversion late in the game. Both teams stay on the ground, so this will be a quick game. I think the second meeting will go to the Paladins. Pick -- Furman
Last Week -- 5-5
For The Season -- 64-64-2
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